March 17, 2017

Fantasy Auction Values

Third Edition, 2017

by Mike Gianella

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Below is my third bid limit update. There aren’t too many changes this week. Once again, any changes of two dollars in either direction will be listed below for players with significant value. Mixed league bids will reflect the same valuation change unless otherwise noted.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Non-LABR Adjustments

Jason Kipnis $18 (previous $24)
It is possible I am overreacting to Kipnis’ injury, but given the talent at the top at second base in the American League I would rather move Kipnis down one or two dollars “too many” than pay $20-22 and find myself in a situation where he misses half the season.

Carlos Carrasco $19 (previous $22)
The news on Carrasco’s elbow was positive (the MRI came back clean). On the other hand, it’s an elbow issue. If he pitches a healthy outing, I’ll bump him most of the way back up in the next update.

David Price $10 (previous $14).
Another week has passed and the information about Price’s recovery is even more nebulous than it was on March 10. He did some light throwing today, but it doesn’t sound like Price is close to ramping it up and going full speed. Even if everything turns out to be fine, the Red Sox are likely to be super cautious given their pitching depth.

NATIONAL LEAGUE
Jacob deGrom $19 (previous $17)
His health and velocity this spring are both turning me back into a believer.

Ian Desmond $19 (previous $28)
Mark Reynolds $7 (previous $2)
This adjustment builds in about a month of missed time during the regular season for Desmond but also considers the uncertainty many hitters have recovering their swing and power after a hand injury.

Jose Reyes $16 (previous $14)
Prorate Reyes’ 2016 to 120 games and he’s a $20 player in NL-only 5x5. The market is somewhat underestimating him, but even if Reyes isn’t quite a full timer, there is a good deal of value left.

Zack Greinke $15 (previous $18)
Greinke’s diminished velocity combined with his subpar 2016 makes me wary. This is still a decent price, but I don’t want to creep toward $20 with him.

Matt Wieters $11 (previous $8)
With Derek Norris out of the picture, it is clear that Wieters will get almost all the at bats behind the dish in DC.

Jung-Ho Kang $8 (previous $12) (removed from mixed)
David Freese $6 (previous $4)
Kang might have difficulty getting a visa to come play baseball in the United States. I will leave the legal opinions on this matter to the legal experts, but this is a situation I don’t want any part of in a redraft league.

Tom Murphy $6 (previous $9)
Broken forearm.

Anthony DeSclafani $5 (previous $9) (mixed -$3)
DeSclafani was unlikely to bring back high end numbers, but now concerns about his elbow push him down nearly 50 percent in mixed and down to a one-dollar flier in deep mixed leagues. In standard mixed, feel free to cross him off your sheet entirely.



Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MikeGianella
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