March 10, 2017

Fantasy Auction Values

Second Edition, 2017

by Mike Gianella

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Below is the second update of my fantasy bid limits for AL-only, NL-only, and mixed leagues for auction formats. Listed below are the players whose prices have been shifted by two dollars or more in either direction.

Most of this edition’s updates are based on what happened in the LABR NL and AL auctions this past weekend in Phoenix, Arizona. I have been asked in the past how the expert auctions influence my prices. That’s a good question that also gives me an opportunity to explain how I construct my bids.

My first pass at my bid limits takes place in January. I don’t make many changes unless there is a trade, free agent signing, or injury that influences the value of one or more players. The CBS auctions in February are the first opportunity I have to see my bids in action, but the spending in these two auctions tends to be liberal. On the other hand, LABR is the first expert auction where the prices tend to be a rational and realistic barometer of what the market in most of the home leagues I have participated in will look like.

If I see that the price for a player is significantly higher or lower in both CBS and LABR than my bid is, I consider if perhaps I am being too bearish or bullish on that player. There are also marketplace considerations as well. I did not purchase a player over $23 in AL LABR. While I do like my team, I pushed the bids up on many of the Top 10 players in the American League for this update. While I do believe that my bids are fundamentally sound, I do want to give my readers some wiggle room in their auctions to bid more liberally on the top hitters.

What I try to avoid is shifting prices up or down simply because “that’s what the experts paid.” These bids are a product of my work and recommendations, not merely a regurgitation of what the expert market believes. My favorite bids are the ones that are three dollars lower or higher than what the experts in LABR paid. These are my boldest calls in either direction. Whether you agree or disagree, I’m taking a stand, and that’s more important than simply trying to “correct” my bids because of the market.

The adjustments below are for AL, NL, and mixed leagues in cases of significant players whose value moved up or down by two dollars or more in either direction. The mixed bid has moved up or down the same amount except where otherwise indicated.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Max Scherzer $32 (previous $36). Mixed: (-$2)
The four-dollar drop is due to a combination of worry about Scherzer’s injury and a rational market adjustment. Even before he was hurt, my CBS winning bid was four dollars fewer than my $36 bid limit. I think Scherzer will be fine (I left him above Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard, which the expert bidders in LABR did not) but I no longer want to pay $35 for him.

David Dahl $15 (previous $20)
The bidders in LABR weren’t concerned about Dahl at all, paying him my pre-LABR update price of $20. I wish I could feel as sanguine, but with Dahl likely to start the season on the DL it gives the Rockies a built-in excuse to send him to the minors for a couple of months if they want to attempt and build up Gerardo Parra’s trade value. Parra gets bumped up two dollars, and I would watch Raimel Tapia in NL-only very closely.

Raisel Iglesias $10 (previous $8)
I had some reservations about Iglesias because Drew Storen is on the team, but the Storen-for-closer campaign has not picked up momentum. Iglesias moves up two dollars while Storen gets pushed from six dollars to two dollars in this update.

CBS/LABR Adjustments
Trea Turner $31 (previous $29)
Brandon Belt $17 (previous $15)
Javier Baez $15 (previous $13)
Josh Bell $12 (previous $10)
Travis Shaw $12 (previous $9)

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Non-LABR Adjustments

David Price $14 (previous $25).
Fourteen dollars is what Larry Schechter paid for Price in LABR. Nearly every fantasy analyst I have talked to about Price has expressed anything from moderate concern to extreme alarm for Price’s health This bid could come down another two or three dollars in my next update. It is extremely doubtful it will bounce back up.

David Robertson $14 (previous $16)
The rumor mill has been quiet, but I decided to move Robertson’s price down because he might be traded and become another team’s set-up. Nate Jones moves up two dollars.

Daniel Norris $11 (previous $9)
I’m a fan of Norris’ and decided to let my bid express my preference. This is partially tied to buyer’s remorse in LABR, where I let him go for eight dollars. I’d rather have Norris at that price than Dylan Bundy, who I purchased on Saturday.

Ryan Madson $9 (previous $11)
Good news! The pain that Madson was feeling in his arm had to do with a new pitch! He stopped throwing that pitch and now he is fine! Yeah, that’s’ not how this works. Pain in the arm is a bad thing no matter how you spin it. I haven’t moved any of the other Athletics’ relievers up, but the more I think about this one the more inclined I am to push Madson down again in the next update.

Brett Lawrie, adios (previous $11)
Lawrie was released by the White Sox. He was purchased for two dollars in LABR, but I wouldn’t even bother with him as a reserve pick unless it is clear he is going to sign with an American League team. Tyler Saladino moves from one dollar to six while Yolmer Sanchez moves from one dollar to two. Yoan Moncada’s bid remains unchanged, as I do not believe this changes his timetable for 2017.

LABR Adjustments
Mookie Betts $38 (previous $36)
Carlos Correa $30 (previous $28)
Yu Darvish $25 (previous $23)
Elvis Andrus $20 (previous $18)
Max Kepler $15 (previous $13)
Devon Travis $14 (previous $12)
Corey Dickerson $13 (previous $15)
Evan Gattis $13 (previous $11)
Michael Brantley $13 (previous $15)



Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MikeGianella
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