Dynasty League Positio... (03/02)
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March 2, 2017 Dynasty League Positional RankingsThe Top 175 Starting Pitchers
We, at Baseball Prospectus, have been talking about starting pitchers for a while now (seven days and change to be exact, depending on when you are reading this) and the party continues to rage on. Yet before we rage, we shall calibrate—since rankings aren’t useful without knowing what you’re reading. The list you are about to read here presupposes a 16-team standard (read: 5x5 roto) dynasty format, in which there are no contracts/salaries, players can be kept forever, and owners have minor-league farm systems in which to hoard prospects. So feel free to adjust this as necessary for your individual league, whether it’s moving non-elite prospects without 2016 ETAs down if you don’t have separate farm teams or moving lower-risk, lower-reward players up in deeper mixed or -only formats.
Here’s how this one is going to work. There’s just so much here that I’m going to give a little longer of an introduction and then present the list without comment. I invite you all to ask whatever clarifying questions you have in the comments.
The dynasty landscape for pitchers is in a strange place right now, as we have our prototypical aces (and it’s a shorter list than usual), but the next wave of pitchers behind them has more warts than we’re used to seeing. Whether it’s due to the injury risk in should-be-aces like Carlos Carrasco or Stephen Strasburg, or the recent performance swings in Chris Archer and David Price. And with the rise in strikeouts across the league and decrease in innings thrown by starters, the aces as a whole tick up in value, which further frustrates with the should-be guys.
We won’t notice it quite yet, but the last two drafts have been strong for arms. The reason why most of them still rank pretty low on this list (and overall) is that trying to figure out which pre full-season ball arms are going to make it and produce in the majors is a losing proposition from the start. That said, the quantity right now suggest they’ll be quality, even if the names might surprise us.
Without any further ado, the top 175 starting pitchers in dynasty formats:
1) Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers 2) Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets 3) Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants 4) Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals 6) Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians 9) Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants 10) Jacob deGrom, New York Mets 11) Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs 12) David Price, Boston Red Sox 13) Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals 14) Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers 15) Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians 16) Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates 17) Carlos Martinez, St Louis Cardinals 18) Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays 19) Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers 20) Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox 21) Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs 22) Matt Harvey, New York Mets 23) Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers 24) Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks 25) Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees 26) Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox 27) Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays 28) Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves 29) Kenta Maeda, Los Angeles Dodgers 30) Jameson Taillon, Pittsburgh Pirates 31) Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians 32) Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox 33) Michael Fulmer, Detroit Tigers 34) Sean Manaea, Oakland Athletics 35) Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies 36) Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros 37) Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners 38) Rick Porcello, Boston Red Sox 39) Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals 40) Kevin Gausman, Baltimore Orioles 41) Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays 42) Lance McCullers, Houston Astros 43) Vincent Velasquez, Philadelphia Phillies 44) Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays 45) Steven Matz, New York Mets 46) James Paxton, Seattle Mariners 47) Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics 48) Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies 49) Rich Hill, Los Angeles Dodgers 50) Alex Reyes, St Louis Cardinals 51) Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays 52) Taijuan Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks 53) Robert Gsellman, New York Mets 54) Joe Ross, Washington Nationals 55) Tyler Glasnow, Pittsburgh Pirates 56) Yadier Alvarez, Los Angeles Dodgers 57) Jason Groome, Boston Red Sox 58) Matt Moore, San Francisco Giants 59) Brent Honeywell, Tampa Bay Rays 60) Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels 61) Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels 62) Anderson Espinoza, San Diego Padres 63) Francis Martes, Houston Astros 64) Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins 65) Drew Pomeranz, Boston Red Sox 66) Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks 67) Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers 68) Anthony DeSclafani, Cincinnati Reds 69) Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates 70) Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants 71) John Lackey, Chicago Cubs 72) Cody Reed, Cincinnati Reds 73) Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles 74) Drew Smyly, Seattle Mariners 75) Michael Pineda, New York Yankees 76) Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox 77) Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays 78) Jerad Eickhoff, Philadelphia Phillies 79) Michael Wacha, St Louis Cardinals 80) Eduardo Rodriguez, Boston Red Sox 81) Reynaldo Lopez, Chicago White Sox 82) Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals 83) Francisco Liriano, Toronto Blue Jays 84) Amir Garrett, Cincinnati Reds 85) Cal Quantrill, San Diego Padres 86) Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians 87) A.J. Puk, Oakland Athletics 88) Jose De Leon, Tampa Bay Rays 89) Franklyn Kilome, Philadelphia Phillies 90) Zach Davies, Milwaukee Brewers 91) Jordan Zimmermann, Detroit Tigers 92) Adam Wainwright, St Louis Cardinals 93) Mike Foltynewicz, Atlanta Braves 94) Yohander Mendez, Texas Rangers 95) Sandy Alcantara, St Louis Cardinals 96) Matt Shoemaker, Los Angeles Angels 97) Collin McHugh, Houston Astros 98) Lance Lynn, St Louis Cardinals 99) Marco Estrada, Toronto Blue Jays 100) Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Angels 101) J.A. Happ, Toronto Blue Jays 102) Ivan Nova, Pittsburgh Pirates 103) Daniel Norris, Detroit Tigers 104) Zack Wheeler, New York Mets 105) Tyson Ross, Texas Rangers 106) Ian Kennedy, Kansas City Royals 107) Sean Newcomb, Los Angeles Angels 108) Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Indians 109) Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks 110) Brandon Finnegan, Cincinnati Reds 111) Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks 112) Luis Severino, New York Yankees 113) Grant Holmes, Oakland Athletics 114) Justin Dunn, New York Mets 115) Shelby Miller, Arizona Diamondbacks 116) Mike Montgomery, Chicago Cubs 117) Thomas Szapucki, New York Mets 118) Matt Manning, Detroit Tigers 119) Jeff Hoffman, Colorado Rockies 120) Adrian Morejon, San Diego Padres 121) Forrest Whitley, Houston Astros 122) Luke Weaver, St Louis Cardinals 123) Erick Fedde, Washington Nationals 124) Jeremy Hellickson, Philadelphia Phillies 125) Steven Wright, Boston Red Sox 126) Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers 127) Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners 128) Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals 129) Robert Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds 130) Jaime Garcia, Atlanta Braves 131) Kolby Allard, Atlanta Braves 132) Joe Musgrove, Houston Astros 133) Wei-Yin Chen, Miami Marlins 134) Clay Buchholz, Philadelphia Phillies 135) Justus Sheffield, New York Yankees 136) Adam Conley, Miami Marlins 136) James Kaprelian, New York Yankees 137) Alec Hansen, Chicago White Sox 138) Mike Leake, St Louis Cardinals 139) Jason Hammel, Kansas City Royals 140) Luis Ortiz, Milwaukee Brewers 141) Junior Guerra, Milwaukee Brewers 142) Riley Pint, Colorado Rockies 143) Fernando Romero, Minnesota Twins 144) Andrew Cashner, Texas Rangers 145) Braxton Garrett, Miami Marlins 146) Norge Ruiz, Oakland Athletics 147) Ervin Santana, Minnesota Twins 148) Martin Perez, Texas Rangers 149) Scott Kazmir, Los Angeles Dodgers 150) Tyler Anderson, Colorado Rockies 151) Mike Fiers, Houston Astros 152) Dan Straily, Miami Marlins 153) Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles 154) Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers 155) Brandon McCarthy, Los Angeles Dodgers 156) Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers 157) Matt Wisler, Atlanta Braves 158) Jharel Cotton, Oakland Athletics 159) Tyler Beede, San Francisco Giants 160) Carson Fulmer, Chicago White Sox 161) David Paulino, Houston Astros 162) Nate Karns, Kansas City Royals 163) Jake Thompson, Philadelphia Phillies 164) Ian Anderson, Atlanta Braves 165) Josh Tomlin, Cleveland Indians 166) Dylan Cease, Chicago Cubs 167) Tyler Jay, Minnesota Twins 168) James Shields, Chicago White Sox 169) Brady Aiken, Cleveland Indians 170) Brock Stewart, Los Angeles Dodgers 171) Max Fried, Atlanta Braves 172) R. A. Dickey, Atlanta Braves 173) Trevor Clifton, Chicago Cubs 174) Sean-Reid Foley, Toronto Blue Jays 175) Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds
Bret Sayre is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @BretSayreBP
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Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and ALCS Gam...
Curious about why Dunn ranked (very slightly) higher here than Szapucki, given the later ranked so much higher on some other BP lists.
I think Szapucki may have a little higher upside as a starting pitcher, but Dunn has the advantage in fantasy of potentially being a more dominant reliever if things don't go either of their way. Think Dunn is also very slightly safer overall, which pushes him ahead.
Interesting, thanks!