Fantasy Three-Year Pro... (02/27)
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March 1, 2017 Fantasy Three-Year ProjectionsStarting Pitchers, Part Two
In case you missed the hitters or part one of yesterday’s starting pitchers, let’s get you caught up before going any further:
With that out of the way, it’s time to order the first next 110 starting pitchers. Yes, 110. If you’ve been following along or you’re familiar with this exercise from years past, you know that these rankings function best as something like a cross between keeper preferences and dynasty rankings for those whose window of contention is open in the immediate future. It’s important to state that these rankings are mine alone. They no doubt vary from the opinions of other writers on this site and that’s okay. Good, even. This wouldn’t be much fun if we all thought the same thing about every player and couldn’t learn from each other in the cases where we diverge. Off we go: 41. Tyler Glasnow, Pittsburgh Pirates 42. Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox 43. Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers The back half of the top 40 was brimming with high upside youngsters, so that seems like an appropriate place to begin the second segment of the rankings. Glasnow and Giolito are our 14th- and 10th-best prospects, respectively. I like Glasnow a touch more because of the league, home park, and strikeout upside, acknowledging that his overall value is limited by his present inability to command the ball. I’m expecting a bounce back from Giolito, under the assumption that Don Cooper will help him settle on consistent mechanics and rediscover some of the fastball velocity that went missing in 2016. Both of these guys should be in the majors for good early in 2017, if not on Opening Day. Urias pitched to a 3.39 ERA and struck out more than a batter per inning as a teenager. His ranking all the way down here is purely a function of volume. Urias threw 127 2/3 innings in 2016 and the Dodgers are expected to manipulate his usage again in 2017 in an effort to protect his arm. He belongs in the upper tiers on a per inning basis, but it could be 2019 before Urias is permitted to make a run at 200 frames. 44. Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks 45. Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros 46. Rich Hill, Los Angeles Dodgers 47. Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays 48. Drew Pomeranz, Boston Red Sox 49. James Paxton, Seattle Mariners Greinke’s ERA rose from 1.66 in 2015 to 4.37 in 2016, but his DRA actually shrank, dropping from 3.26 to 3.17. The real Greinke is somewhere in the middle, and that’s still a perfectly useful pitcher as long as the expectations are set correctly. Keuchel’s still on the right side of 30 and I think he has a few more years of mid-rotation value in him, shoulder injury notwithstanding. On skills alone, Hill has been the best non-Kershaw pitcher in baseball over the past two seasons. Trouble is he’s only thrown 139 1/3 innings in that span and will be 37 years old in 2017. Take what you can get and backfill with a depth piece. As an extreme fly-ball pitcher who is prone to giving up bombs, Odorizzi’s value is closely tied to the Trop and the guy who roams centerfield there. It looks like Odorizzi will stay in Tampa for now, but the Rays have plenty of upper minors depth at the ready. If you’re sitting on Odorizzi, a pre-emptive move might be in order. Pomeranz ran a 2.83 ERA as a Padre, then posted a 4.59 ERA in 13 games after the trade to Boston. Do with that what you will. Paxton’s fastball was one of 2016’s great revelations, registering an average velocity north of 97 mph. Almost as importantly, he took the ball 31 times and pitched 171 2/3 innings between Triple-A and the majors, his highest total since 2013. 50. Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks 51. Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies 52. Michael Pineda, New York Yankees Jose Fernandez was the only qualified pitcher to top Ray’s 11.3 K/9 in 2016. Only nine pitchers posted a worse HR/FB rate. With the strikeouts as a foundation and what should be some correction to his long ball luck, Ray offers solid upside 50 names deep. Gray pitches for the Rockies. Yes, that’s scary, but he too can lean on a healthy whiff total to compensate for the ratio risk. Pineda is a DRA darling, finishing inside the top-20 in each of the past two seasons. The on-field results have diverged from the paper version pretty dramatically. Whether or not the gap closes depends on whether Pineda can do enough with his slider and changeup to discourage batters from sitting dead red. 53. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners 54. Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants 55. Jerad Eickhoff, Philadelphia Phillies 56. Anthony DeSclafani, Cincinnati Reds 57. Matt Moore, San Francisco Giants 58. Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics 59. Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals 60. Matt Shoemaker, Los Angeles Angels 61. Ivan Nova, Pittsburgh Pirates Unless King Felix gets some velocity back, I’m not buying him as much more than a serviceable innings eater at this point. In other words, I think he’s basically Jeff Samardzija. Bummer. Eickhoff, DeScalfani, and Roark outperformed the advanced metrics substantially in 2016 and their rankings here probably reflect my bias against that type. Moore and Gray are 27-year-old name brands. Shoemaker and Nova are 30-year-olds who reinvented themselves in 2016, Shoemaker as a guy who throws more splitters than anyone in baseball and Nova as a guy who never walks anyone (thanks Ray Searage). 62. Robert Gsellman, New York Mets 63. Daniel Norris, Detroit Tigers 64. Taijuan Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks 65. Joe Musgrove, Houston Astros 66. Dylan Bundy, Baltimore Orioles 67. Jose De Leon, Tampa Bay Rays 68. Jharel Cotton, Oakland Athletics Some of my favorite prospects past and present in this group. I hope this is high enough to fulfill my contractual obligation on Gsellman, Norris was disgusting last September (38-to-8 K:BB in 28 1/3 innings), Walker might be 100 spots too high, Musgrove walked 26 in 147 1/3 innings across three levels in 2016, Bundy is finally on track and still just 24 years old, and De Leon and Cotton will look to overcome fastballs with no plane. I sure hope they can, because the changeups are super fun to watch. 69. Matt Harvey, New York Mets 70. Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays 71. Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels Beats me. 72. J.A. Happ, Toronto Blue Jays 73. Ian Kennedy, Kansas City Royals 74. Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals 75. Marco Estrada, Toronto Blue Jays 76. Drew Smyly, Seattle Mariners 77. Brandon Finnegan, Cincinnati Reds 78. Eduardo Rodriguez, Boston Red Sox Cromulent veterans and lefties I’m lower on than everyone else. 79. Zach Davies, Milwaukee Brewers 80. Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians 81. Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels 82. Tyler Anderson, Colorado Rockies 83. Mike Foltynewicz, Atlanta Braves 84. Matt Andriese, Tampa Bay Rays 85. Adam Conley, Miami Marlins 86. Luke Weaver, St. Louis Cardinals Young enough to hold down jobs for a few years, lacking the skills to move up these rankings much. 87. Collin McHugh, Houston Astros 88. John Lackey, Chicago Cubs 89. Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals 90. Jeremy Hellickson, Philadelphia Phillies 91. Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals 92. Dan Straily, Miami Marlins 93. Jason Hammel, Kansas City Royals 94. Jordan Zimmermann, Detroit Tigers 95. Hisahi Iwakuma, Seattle Marienrs 96. Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals 97. Francisco Liriano, Toronto Blue Jays Good heavens we’re not even to 100 yet. 98. Alex Wood, Los Angeles Dodgers 99. Chris Devenski, Houston Astros 100. Luis Severino, New York Yankees 101. Mike Clevinger, Cleveland Indians 102. Mike Montgomery, Chicago Cubs 103. Reynaldo Lopez, Chicago White Sox 104. Matt Strahm, Kansas City Royals 105. Carson Fulmer, Chicago White Sox 106. Jeff Hoffman, Colorado Rockies 107. Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers 108. Andrew Triggs, Oakland Athletics 109. Nathan Karns, Kansas City Royals How many of these 12 will be starters three years from now? Hell, how many will be starters three months from now? 110. Francis Martes, Houston Astros 111. Cody Reed, Cincinnati Reds 112. Sean Newcomb, Atlanta Braves 113. David Paulino, Houston Astros That Martes ranks here despite the fact that he is unlikely to make any impact in 2017 tells you how special I believe he’ll be when he does arrive in Houston. You can pick your seat on the Reed bandwagon right now. I get it. It’s not super encouraging when a guy gives up 12 home runs in 10 starts. On the other hand, he struck out 43 in 47 2/3 innings and cFIP liked him as a hair better than league average. Remember, these things are rarely linear. Pounce if there’s a panicky Reed owner in your league. Same goes for Newcomb. I’m frustrated that his command hasn’t taken a step forward too, and while the chances are slimming every year, reports still cite a delivery that should work. At the price, the payoff could be immense if it clicks. 114. Shelby Miller, Arizona Diamondbacks 115. Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks 116. Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks Pick a Diamondback, any Diamondback. 117. Brock Stewart, Los Angeles Dodgers 118. Adalberto Mejia, Minnesota Twins 119. Amir Garrett, Cincinnati Reds 120. Chad Green, New York Yankees 121. Zack Wheeler, New York Mets 122. German Marquez, Colorado Rockies 123. Robert Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds 124. Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins Last chance to grab someone interesting before this get depressing…alright, let’s hold our noses and finish it off. 125. Ervin Santana, Minnesota Twins 126. Wei-Yin Chen, Miami Marlins 127. Kyle Gibson, Minnesota Twins 128. Kendall Graveman, Oakland Athletics 129. Junior Guerra, Milwaukee Brewers 130. Matt Boyd, Detroit Tigers 131. Wily Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers 132. Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee Brewers 133. Chad Kuhl, Pittsburgh Pirates 134. Steven Wright, Boston Red Sox 135. Scott Kazmir, Los Angeles Dodgers 136. Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles 137. Mike Leake, St. Louis Cardinals 138. Mike Fiers, Houston Astros 139. Ricky Nolasco, Los Angeles Angels 140. Jhoulys Chacin, San Diego Padres 141. Tyson Ross, Texas Rangers 142. Drew Hutchison, Pittsburgh Pirates 143. Tyler Beede, San Francisco Giants 144. Yohander Mendez, Texas Rangers 145. Anthony Banda, Arizona Diamondbacks 146. Steven Brault, Pittsburgh Pirates 147. Tyler Chatwood, Colorado Rockies 148. Martin Perez, Texas Rangers 149. Matt Wisler, Atlanta Braves 150. Bartolo Colon, Atlanta Braves
Greg Wellemeyer is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @gregwellemeyer
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Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and ALCS Gam...
It's an evident truth that Bartolo Colon is too low. C'mon, Greg. What are the odds we DON'T see a beautiful, graceful, 45 year old artist on the Miami Marlins mound hurling gems and hitting dingers for 17mil/year? The answer is not high, my friend. Not high.