February 20, 2017

Flu-Like Symptoms

Fit to be Tied

by Rob Mains

I’m going to talk about games that last longer than nine innings. Don’t worry, this isn’t another article about putting a baserunner on second base in extra innings.

I already wrote about that proposal, which caused a furor on the internet. I pointed out that extra-inning games have been in decline lately. And last week, our Russell A. Carleton looked at the proposal from pretty much every imaginable angle. So I’m not going to revisit it.

But FanGraphs columnist, Baseball Prospectus 2016 Annual Pirates essay writer, and Big Data Baseball author Travis Sawchik had another suggestion: Why not just call games tied after 12 innings ties?

I’m not going to comment on the merits of Sawchik’s proposal. I imagine that, if proposed by MLB, it’d be met with the same reception the runner-on-second proposal received. Rather, I thought his idea raised an intriguing question: What if it were a baseball rule?

Ties in baseball are different than those in other sports. In the NFL, ties are counted as half a win and half a loss. In the NHL, teams tied at the end of regulation play an overtime period and, if necessary, a shootout. Teams get two points for a win but teams that are tied at the end of regulation and subsequently lose get one point. In soccer's English Premier League, teams get three points for a win and one for a tie.

In baseball, ties are not included in the standings. Player statistics count, but the game is not part of the team’s won-lost record. Last year, the umpires called the September 29 game between the Cubs and Pirates after six innings with the teams tied 1-1. The Cubs and Pirates both played 162 games, but the Cubs’ final record of 103-58 and Pirates’ 78-83 excluded the September 29 game. Sometimes tie games are made up later in the season, resulting in oddities like teammates Billy Williams and Ron Santo each appearing in 164 games for the 1965 Cubs, whose official record of 72-90 sums to just 162 games.

As you might expect, ties have become less common in baseball, partly because better weather forecasts can prevent games from starting under conditions likely to turn worse, but mostly because the setting sun is no longer an impediment to play. Here is a graph of tie games per season since 1913.

Since the turn of the millennium, there have been just six ties: One each in 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003, one in 2005, and one in 2016. That’s it. If games still going after 12 innings were declared ties, well, there’d be a lot more ties. Last season, 32 games were tied after 12 innings, so there’d be 32 more ties.

For purposes of this experiment, I’m going to assume that every game tied after 12 innings ended as a tie, with no makeup game. Consistent with baseball rules, those games would be excluded from the standings. It’s like they didn’t exist.

So, would a 12-inning tie rule, as suggested by Sawchik, change baseball standings? As it turns out, yes it would, quite frequently. There have been 109 league or divisional races since 1913 (41 in the 66 years of two league champions, 68 in 48 years of divisional play) in which the order of finish would change if games tied after 12 innings ended that way. That’s a lot, more than one per season.

But in most cases, the changes are pretty minor. Take, for example, the 2015 American League East. Baltimore was third at 81-81, with Tampa Bay one game behind at 80-82. But the Orioles played three games that went 13 innings, going 2-1 in them. Erasing those games as 12-inning ties would drop their record to 79-80. The Rays played four games that lasted 13 innings (neither team played any games longer), with a 1-3 record. By making those games ties, Tampa Bay’s record becomes 79-79. So if games were declared ties after 12 innings, Tampa Bay would’ve finished ahead of the Orioles in the standings, with a .500 winning percentage compared to Baltimore’s .497. (In all cases, I determined standings by winning percentage.)

The list of every instance in which a league or division’s standings would have changed if there were 12-inning ties is a long one. As I said, in most cases, it’s not that significant. But I did want to point out the really interesting examples—the seasons in which 12-inning ties would’ve affected who played into October.

Here are the postseasons that would’ve been affected if baseball games were declared ties after 12 innings. In the interest of brevity, I’m going to limit this to league and divisional championships—no wild cards.

• 1946 National League: The Cardinals and Dodgers tied for the pennant. The Cardinals swept the best-of-three playoff. With 12-inning ties, the Cardinals’ 95-57 record would have topped the Dodgers’ 93-58, eliminating the playoff.
• 1948 American League: The Indians and Red Sox tied for the pennant. The Indians won tie-breaker. With 12-inning ties, the Red Sox, at 96-58, would have finished ahead of the Indians at 93-58.
• 1951 National League: The Dodgers and Giants tied. The Giants famously won the best-of-three playoff, 2-1. With 12-inning ties, the Dodgers would have finished 94-57 and the Giants 95-58, giving the Dodgers the pennant on winning percentage (.623-.621).
• 1959 National League: The Dodgers and Braves tied, and the Dodgers swept the best-of-three playoff. With 12-inning ties, there would not have been a tie; the Dodgers’ 83-66 record would have lagged the Braves’ 84-66.
• 1962 National League: The Dodgers and Giants tied. The Giants won the best-of-three playoff, 2-1. The Dodgers were 5-1 in games lasting more than 12 innings that year and would have finished three full games behind San Francisco without those games, so no playoff.
• 1964 National League: In one of the most famous late-season collapses, the Cardinals, at 93-69, slipped past the Phillies, who blew a 6.5 game lead with 25 games to play, going 9-16. They finished 92-70, tied with the Reds for second. But the Cardinals were 1-0 in games lasting over 12 innings, the Reds 1-1, and the Phillies 1-2. Remove those games in the Phillies would’ve finished percentage points ahead of the Cardinals and half a game up on the Reds.
• 1978 American League East: The Yankees and Red Sox tied, with the Yankees winning the playoff. With 12-inning ties, the Yankees would have finished 97-72 and the Red Sox 96-72, there would have been no playoff, and nobody would remember Bucky Dent.
• 1980 National League East: The Phillies finished 91-71, one game better than the Expos, but were 5-1 in games lasting over 12 innings while Montreal was 2-1. With 12-inning ties, the Expos would’ve finished half a game ahead of Philadelphia and Jonah Keri’s book would have had another chapter.
• 1980 National League West: The Astros and Dodgers tied, with the Astros winning the playoff. With 12-inning ties, the Dodgers would have finished 91-69, ahead of Houston at 90-69.
• 1989 American League East: The 89-73 Blue Jays were 5-0 in games over 12 innings. The 87-75 Orioles were 2-2. With no games over 12 innings, the Orioles would have taken the pennant.
• 1990 American League East: Flipping their luck from the previous year, the Blue Jays, who finished two games behind Boston, were 0-4 in games over 12 innings. The Red Sox were 1-0. Without those games, Toronto would’ve won the East four straight years, 1990-93.
• 1991 National League West: The Braves finished a game ahead of the Dodgers, but excluding the teams’ record in games lasting over 12 inning, they were tied, necessitating a playoff game.
• 1994 National League Central: Of course, there wasn’t a postseason this year, but the 66-48 Reds, half a game ahead of the 66-49 Astros when the season stopped, would’ve trailed Houston by a game excluding Houston’s 0-1 record and Cincinnati’s 2-0 in games of over 12 innings.
• 1995 American League West: The Mariners and Angels tied, with the Mariners winning the playoff. With 12-inning ties, Seattle, at 77-65, would have finished percentage points ahead of the 78-66 Angels.
• 2001 National League Central: The Astros and Cardinals tied for first at 93-69, with Houston getting the division and St. Louis the wild card as Houston took the season series. With 12-inning ties, St. Louis, which was 0-2 in games over 12 innings, would’ve taken the crown, relegating Houston to the wild card.
• 2001 National League West: Arizona, at 92-70, finished two games ahead of San Francisco, but would’ve been tied at 90-69 excluding games over 12 innings, with a 9-9 record head-to-head. (Arizona won the series, 10-9, but one of those wins was an 18-inning game.) So there would’ve been a playoff.
• 2003 National League Central: The Cubs finished a game ahead of Houston but were 4-0 in games over 12 innings while Houston was 0-4. Take away those games, Houston would have won, and we would have never heard the word Bartman. So there’s that.
• 2006 National League West: The Dodgers and Padres tied for first, with the Padres taking the division on head-to-head play and the Dodgers playing the wild card game. Neither team did well in games lasting more than 12 innings, but the Dodgers’ 1-4 was worse than the Padres’ 1-2, so eliminating those games would have flipped the teams’ postseason roles.
• 2008 American League Central: The White Sox and Twins tied, with the White Sox winning the playoff. They would’ve won the regular season with 12-inning ties, 85-72 compared to Minnesota’s 87-75, eliminating the playoff game.
• 2009 American League Central: The Twins and Tigers tied, with the Twins winning the playoff. The postseason wouldn’t have changed, but it’s worth noting that this is the lone playoff that would’ve been necessary if there were 12-inning times, as the two teams would’ve finished with identical 85-75 records.
• 2013 American League Central: The Tigers finished a game ahead of the Indians at 93-69 but were buoyed by a 3-0 record in games lasting more than 12 innings compared to Cleveland’s 1-1. Without those games, the Indians would’ve finished a half game ahead, with Detroit as the wild card.

I’m not trying to make a point here. The chances of a rule change calling for games ending as ties after 12 innings are less than, well, extra innings starting with a runner on second base. But I thought Sawchik had an interesting proposal, one worth exploring. The conclusion is that calling games ties after 12 innings would change the overall standings in most seasons and, in the wild card era, would be as likely as not to have an impact on the teams playing in the postseason. But it’s not going to happen. I think.

The complete list of seasons in which the standings would have changed:

Season	League	Actual Standings	Standings with 12-inning ties
1914	American	NYY T6, CHW T6	NYY 6, CHW 7
1915	National	CHC 4, PIT 5, STL 6	PIT 4, STL 5, CHC 6
1916	National	CIN T7, STL T7	STL 7, CIN 8
1918	National	BRO 5, PHI 6	PHI 5, BRO 6
1919	American	SLB T5, BOS T5	BOS 5, SLB 6
1920	National	CHC T5, STL T5	STL 5, CHC 6
1921	American	SLB 3, WSH 4	WSH 3, SLB 4
1922	American	CLE 4, CHW 5	CHW 4, CLE 5
1922	National	PIT T3, STL T3	PIT 3, STL 4
1923	American	WSH 4, SLB 5, PHA 6, CHW 7	SLB 4, WSH 5, CHW 6, PHA 7
1925	American	SLB 3, DET 4, CLE 6, NYY 7	DET 3, SLB 4, CLE T6, NYY T6
1927	National	STL 2, NYG 3	NYG 2, STL 3
1928	National	CIN 5, BRO 6	BRO 5, CIN 6
1933	American	CLE 4, DET 5	DET 4, CLE 5
1935	American	WSH 6, SLB 7	SLB 6, WSH 7
1936	American	CHW 4, CLE 5	CLE 4, CHW 5
1936	National	CHC T2, STL T2	STL 2, CHC 3
1940	National	CHC 5, NYG 6	NYG 5, CHC 6
1941	American	CLE T4, DET T4, SLB T6, WSH T6	CLE 4, DET 5, SLB 6, WSH 7
1942	National	PIT 5, CHC 6	CHC 5, PIT 6
1944	American	CLE T5, PHA T5, CHW 7	PHA 5, CHW 6, CLE 7
1947	National	PHI T7, PIT T7	PIT 7, PHI 8
1948	American	CLE 1, BOS 2	BOS 1, CLE 2
1949	National	BSN 4, NYG 5	NYG 4, BSN 5
1950	American	BOS 3, CLE 4	BOS T3, CLE T3
1951	National	NYG 1, BRO 2	BRO 1, NYG 2
1954	National	PHI 4, CIN 5	CIN 4, PHI 5
1956	National	NYG 6, PIT 7	PIT 6, NYG 7
1957	American	BAL 5, CLE 6	BAL T5, CLE T5
1957	National	CHC T7, PIT T7	CHC 7, PIT 8
1958	American	BAL 6, KCA 7	KCA 6, BAL 7
1958	National	CHC T5, STL T5	CHC 5, STL 6
1959	National	LAD 1, MLN 2, CHC T5, CIN T5	MLN 1, LAD 2, CHC 5, CIN 6
1960	American	WSH 5, DET 6	DET 5, WSH 6
1961	American	KCA T9, WSA T9	KCA 9, WSA 10
1962	American	LAA 3, DET 4	DET 3, LAA 4
1964	American	CLE T6, MIN T6	MIN 6, CLE 7
1964	National	STL 1, PHI T2, CIN T2, LAD T6, PIT T6	PHI 1, STL 2, CIN 3, LAD 6, PIT 7
1966	American	CHW 4, CLE 5, WSA 8, BOS 9, NYY 10	CLE 4, CHW 5, BOS 8, NYY 9, WSA 10
1967	American	BAL T6, WSA T6, CLE 8, NYY 9	WSA 6, BAL 7, CLE T8, NYY T8
1968	American	CLE 3, BOS 4, CAL T8, CHW T8	BOS 3, CLE 4, CAL 8, CHW 9
1968	National	CHC 3, CIN 4	CIN 3, CHC 4
1969	AL East	BOS 3, WSA 4	WSA 3, BOS 4
1969	NL East	PIT 3, STL 4	STL 3, PIT 4
1970	NL West	LAD 2, SFG 3	SFG 2, LAD 3
1971	NL East	CHC T3, NYM T3	CHC 3, NYM 4
1971	NL West	CIN T4, HOU T4	CIN 4, HOU 5
1972	AL West	MIN 3, KCR 4	KCR 3, MIN 4
1972	NL West	HOU T2, LAD T2	LAD 2, HOU 3
1973	AL East	MIL 5, CLE 6	CLE 5, MIL 6
1974	AL West	MIN 3, CHW 4	CHW 3, MIN 4
1975	AL West	TEX 3, MIN 4, CHW 5	MIN 3, CHW 4, TEX 5
1975	NL East	NYM T3, SL T3, CHC T5, MON T5	NYM 3, SL 4, CHC 5, MON 6
1976	AL East	BOS 3, CLE 4	CLE 3, BOS 4
1976	AL West	CAL T4, TEX T4	TEX 4, CAL 5
1977	AL East	BAL T2, BOS T2	BAL 2, BOS 3
1977	AL West	SEA 6, OAK 7	OAK 6, SEA 7
1978	AL West	CAL T2, TEX T2	TEX 2, CAL 3
1980	AL East	BOS 3, DET 4	BOS T3, DET T3
1980	NL East	PHI 1, MON 2	MON 1, PHI 2
1980	NL West	HOU 1, LAD 2	LAD 1, HOU 2
1981	AL East	BAL 2, DET T3, NYY T3, BOS 5	BAL T2, BOS T2, NYY 4, DET 5
1981	NL East	MON 2, PHI 3	PHI 2, MON 3
1982	AL East	NYY 5, CLE T6, TOR T6	TOR 5, NYY 6, CLE 7
1983	AL East	DET 2, NYY 3	NYY 2, DET 3
1983	AL West	CAL T5, MIN T5	CAL 5, MIN 6
1984	AL West	CAL T2, MIN T2	MIN 2, CAL 3
1984	NL West	ATL T2, HOU T2	ATL 2, HOU 3
1985	AL East	DET 3, BAL 4	BAL 3, DET 4
1985	AL West	MIN T4, OAK T4	MIN 4, OAK 5
1985	NL West	HOU T3, SDP T3	HOU 3, SDP 4
1986	AL East	DET 3, TOR 4	TOR 3, DET 4
1986	AL West	KCR T3, OAK T3	KCR 3, OAK 4
1986	NL East	STL 3, MON 4	MON 3, STL 4
1987	AL West	CAL T6, TEX T6	TEX 6, CAL 7
1987	NL East	PHI T4, PIT T4	PIT 4, PHI 5
1988	AL East	DET 2, MIL T3, TOR T3	MIL 2, DET 3, TOR 4
1988	NL East	CHC 4, STL 5	STL 4, CHC 5
1988	NL West	SDP 3, SFG 4	SFG 3, SDP 4
1989	AL East	TOR 1, BAL 2	BAL 1, TOR 2
1990	AL East	BOS 1, TOR 2, CLE 4, BAL 5	TOR 1, BOS 2, BAL T4, CLE T4
1990	NL East	CHC T4, PHI T4	PHI 4, CHC 5
1990	NL West	HOU T4, SDP T4	SDP 4, HOU 5
1991	AL East	BOS T2, DET T2, MIL 4	BOS 2, MIL 3, DET 4
1991	AL West	KCR 6, CAL 7	CAL 6, KCR 7
1991	NL East	PHI T3, CHC T3, NYM 5	NYM 3, PHI 4, CHC 5
1991	NL West	ATL 1, LAD 2, SFG 4, CIN 5	ATL T1, LAD T1, CIN T4, SFG T4
1992	AL East	CLE T4, NYY T4	NYY 4, CLE 5
1992	AL West	CAL T5, KCR T5	KCR 5, CAL 6
1993	AL East	BAL T3,DET T3	DET 3, BAL 4
1993	AL West	CAL T5, MIN T5	CAL 5, MIN 6
1994	AL Central	MIN 4, MIL 5	MIL T4, MIN T4
1994	NL Central	CIN 1, HOU 2, PIT T3, STL T3	HOU 1, CIN 2, STL 3, PIT 4
1995	NL East	NYM T2, PHI T2	NYM 2, PHI 3
2001	NL Central	HOU T1, STL T1	STL 1, HOU 2
2001	NL West	ARI 1, SFG 2	ARI T1, SFG T1
2003	NL Central	CHC 1, HOU 2	HOU 1, CHC 2
2005	NL East	FLA T3, NYM T3	FLA 3, NYM 4
2006	AL East	CLE T4, KCR T4	KCR 4, CLE 5
2006	NL West	LAD T1, SDP T1, SFG 3, ARI T4, COL T5	LAD 1, SDP 2, COL 3, SFG 4, ARI 5
2008	AL Central	CHW 1, MIN 2	MIN 1, CHW 2
2008	NL West	COL 2, SDP 3	SDP 2, COL 3
2009	AL Central	CLE T4, KCR T4	KCR 4, CLE 5
2011	AL Central	CLE 2, CHW 3	CHW 2, CLE 3
2012	AL East	BAL 2, TBR 3	TBR 2, BAL 3
2013	AL Central	DET 1, CLE 2	CLE 1, DET 2
2013	AL East	BAL T3, NYY T3	BAL 3, NYY 4
2013	NL West	SDP T3, SFG T3	SFG 3, SDP 4
2014	NL East	ATL T2, NYM T2, MIA 4	ATL 2, MIA 3, NYM 4
2015	AL East	BAL 3, TBR 4	TBR 3, BAL 4
2016	AL East	BAL T2, TOR T2	TOR 2, BAL 3

Rob Mains is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @Cran_Boy
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