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February 20, 2017 The -Only League LandscapeAmerican League Outfielders
This will be the most in-depth article in this series of AL-only positional reviews, and with good reason. With a minimum of 60 American League outfielders populating rosters, and usually more when you factor in the DH slot, outfield is frequently where mono leagues are won or lost. There are only 45 AL starting outfielders, but unlike many other positions you can get solid production from outfield reserves or platoon players. In 2016, four of the 10 most expensive AL-only hitters were outfielders. Three of the 10 highest earners in 2016 were outfielders. The three fantasy “expert” AL-only leagues (CBS, LABR, and Tout Wars) spent $814 on average in the outfield and picked up $790 worth of stats. This year, there was a significant drop in the CBS AL auction on money spent on outfielders, with only $696 allocated to the position. It is worth watching LABR AL next month to see if this is part of a trend or merely an anomaly. Why the dip? How did the expert market spend its money in 2016? (all valuations below are from my 2016 AL-only valuations, which can be found here). Table 1: Top 15 Most Expensive AL Outfielders 2016
Losing money isn’t good, even if it is just play/fantasy money, but getting back $21 on a $27 investment is a relatively predictable outcome. Trout is a great example of being willing to pay extra for certainty. No one who purchases Trout expects him to turn a profit, but because he is a safe $35 earner, fantasy managers are willing to take the loss. After two years of reduced running, Trout bounced back and stole 30 bases for the third time in his career. He is the safest player there is in fantasy baseball. Betts was even better than Trout, edging the Angels outfielder in earnings by $1.64. Betts earned $31 in 2015, but even so his 2016 exceeded even the market’s lofty expectations. Betts might not be Trout 2.0, but it is okay to have similar expectations of a $30 floor and build your bid limit from there. Betts’s power is legitimate and even if you agree with PECOTA that some slippage is likely in home runs, you are still paying for a 20 home run, 30 steal player who will deliver a very good batting average and generate plenty of runs and RBI in a strong Boston lineup. Betts is only 24 years old, so it is even possible that he gets a little bit better. Realistically, it is more likely that Betts is a player where you pay $40-42 and accept the fact that you are going to take an earnings loss while locking in plenty of stats. Betts went for $46 in CBS in 2017. I wouldn’t recommend chasing him that far, but he is one of three players I am comfortable paying $40 for in AL-only. It wasn’t all sunshine and smiles at the top of the AL outfield heap. Bautista had his worst season since 2009, due to a combination of injury and ineffectiveness. Five of the 15 outfielders in Table 1 lost $10 or more for their fantasy managers. Choo was one of those outfielders. He played only 48 games due to multiple injuries. To save him from further injury, it is likely that Choo logs significant time at DH. The Rangers do have several players who may need to shuttle through the DH slot, so if you do plan to purchase Choo, anticipate a limited number of games, even if he stays healthy. Upton was the most productive of the double-digit losers, turning in a $19 season. In Upton’s case, his health is never in question, as he logged 149 games or more for the sixth season in a row. Upton lost ground by standing still. Despite matching his career high in home runs and posting an ISO similar to his career rate, Upton earned below $20 for the first time since 2008, when he only had 417 plate appearances. The dip in steals hurt Upton, but more than anything else the increased offensive context across the board had a negative impact on his overall value. In 2016, Upton’s 31 home runs, 81 runs, and 87 RBI were worth $18.24. In 2015, Upton’s 26 home runs, 85 runs, and 81 RBI were worth $20.49. Despite having a down season, Upton snuck onto the next table, albeit barely. Table 2: Top 15 AL Outfielders 2016
Based on his average auction price, many expected Springer to have his big breakout season in 2016. Based on his earnings, those throngs of adorers are still waiting. Springer’s production was certainly solid, but the 20+ steals never materialized and without a strong batting average Springer is unlikely to ever be a $30+ player. The $23 he earned last year in AL-only 5x5 is the highest amount of fantasy money Springer has earned in his career. Last year was also Springer’s worst year on an earnings/by at bat basis, as he earned $20 in 388 at bats in 2015 and $13 in 295 at bats in 2014. Springer could be an elite player based on the talent, but he either must steal bases, hit for a better batting average, or both. I’m OK with stretching Springer’s price a little in AL-only, but I wouldn’t pay more than $30 for him. Compared to the other outfielders in this group, Cruz gets little respect. He doesn’t run, but otherwise Cruz is a three-category giant who at worst will help you slightly in batting average. His age creates a lack of buzz that keeps Cruz’s price under $30, but there is security in knowing that the floor with Cruz is 30-35 home runs barring injury. Cruz is going to cost at least $10 fewer than Trout and Betts and this is an appropriate price difference, but locking in that power at $24-26 is well worth it. Outfield is so deep that even in a mono league there is no reason to chase. This is particularly true once you move past the elites. This is part of the reason the CBS experts only spent $696 on outfielders last week. Pushing outfielders like Martinez, Cain, Upton, or Trumbo into the high $20s or low $30s because they are the best players on the board is folly. You can lock in solid production in your outfield without paying a premium for a non-elite hitter. In 2016, there were nineteen outfielders with an average salary of three dollars or fewer. Seven of those outfielders earned $10 or more. There is no guarantee that you get profits like this on any player, but you do want to leave room for these types at the end of your auction. Additionally, you want to have a little flexibility to bid two or three dollars for your last outfielder. If the first half of a winning Rotisserie strategy is locking in stats at the top, the other half is getting profitability from the bottom of your roster. Subbing for Bryan Joyner in CBS AL during the last hour of the auction, I grabbed Lonnie Chisenhall and Colby Rasmus at a buck apiece. They could earn $15-20 combined. The other component of this strategy involves not chasing outfielders in the middle of the pack. There are plenty of solid $15-20 options to be had in an AL-only auction, and if you are patient there will be plenty of bargains because of the depth. Much of the strategy and tactics that come into play during an auction take place when you are stocking your outfield. Below are some examples of the profits you could have picked up last year from AL outfielders. Table 3: Top 15 AL Profits, Outfielders, 2016
Four outfielders from Table 2 also appear on Table 3 as well. Davis is perennially underrated, and has earned $20 or more in four of the last five seasons. Bradley’s cold September in 2015 put a damper on his 2016 price, but it turned out that he was a legitimate player. Beltran is the poor man’s version of David Ortiz, as he keeps managing to put up big numbers at an age when most players are sharply declining or out of baseball. Guyer and Young are great examples of one-dollar targets in AL-only. Orlando is not slated to start in 2017, but is likely to amass big profits yet again. Orlando should get a significant amount of playing time backing up the oft-injured Cain and the unproven and oft-injured Jorge Soler. Even if Orlando’s playing time is cut in half, an $8-10 season is quite a realistic expectation. Martin has always been a reliable source of steals. In 2016, he added double-digit home runs to his repertoire. It is more likely that Martin is at his level than it is that he will take an additional step forward, but he was a 30 steal player with the Rangers and still has that kind of speed. Maybin’s price is almost always tamped down because of concerns about his health. This is a good example of how fantasy managers underestimate production and value and overestimate playing time. Maybin’s 15 steals are repeatable, but it is difficult to predict a repeat of that batting average. Speaking of undervalued commodities, Cabrera is “boring” across the board but because he stays on the field and puts up a good batting average he is a reliable $15-20 player. There is trade risk for any player on the rebuilding White Sox, but unless you’re in a byzantine league that does not permit you to keep players swapped to the NL, Cabrera should remain a safe source of OF-3 level production. This winter featured a game of musical chairs with a couple of outfielders. Dyson was traded from the Royals to the Mariners, replacing Seth Smith, who was flipped to Baltimore. Dyson is often viewed as a part-time player, but his defense and speed make Dyson valuable enough in real life that Seattle should feel comfortable using him every day, or at least regularly against righties. Smith is the anti-Dyson, giving his fantasy managers OK power and decent run and RBI totals with no speed and a subpar batting average. It is a boring profile but as Table 3 shows, there is profit to be had. That’s the high-level overview of the position. Here is what’s happening…in your neck of the woods. Oops, that’s Al Roker’s tagline! Below are a few outfielders who will be owned mostly or entirely in AL-only formats. Ben Revere, Angels ($6) Mallex Smith, Rays ($8) Aaron Judge, Yankees ($0) Charlie Tilson, White Sox ($0) Eddie Rosario, Twins ($10) Mitch Haniger, Mariners ($2)
Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MikeGianella
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