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February 17, 2017 Fantasy Three-Year ProjectionsOutfielders, Part II
In case you missed the infield positions or the first part of the outfield list, let’s get you caught up:
With that out of the way, it’s time to order another 60 outfielders. If you’ve been following along or you’re familiar with this exercise from years past, you know that these rankings function best as something like a cross between keeper preferences and dynasty rankings for those whose window of contention is open in the immediate future. It’s important to state that these rankings are mine alone. They no doubt vary from the opinions of other writers on this site and that’s okay. Good, even. This wouldn’t be much fun if we all thought the same thing about every player and couldn’t learn from each other in the cases where we diverge. Off we go: 41. Marcell Ozuna, Miami Marlins 42. Michael Conforto, New York Mets 43. Domingo Santana, Milwaukee Brewers 44. Max Kepler, Minnesota Twins Ozuna was on his way to a full-on breakout when things fell apart in midsummer and is currently the leading candidate for “how is this guy still in his 20s” on the 2020 list. He’ll be solid in the meantime even the leap never comes. God only knows what the Mets are doing with Conforto. As if there was any doubt he belongs in the majors, Conforto hit .422 with nine bombs in 33 Triple-A games. Santana could take a step forward if he can keep the strikeouts in check. He was a few percentage points better than his career average after he returned from injury last August. That might be all it takes for the power to play up. Kepler surprised in his debut, including a nine game stretch where he had three multi-HR games. It’ll be interesting to see if he runs more, or if the 18 bases he stole at Double-A two seasons ago was simply exploitation of minor league batteries. 45. Dexter Fowler, St. Louis Cardinals 46. Kole Calhoun, Los Angeles Angels 47. Carlos Gomez, Texas Rangers Fowler and Calhoun are perfectly adequate veterans who should have several years of compiling left. Exicting, huh? Gomez slashed .284/.362/.543 with eight homers and five steals in just 33 games once he joined the Rangers, half of which he hit lead off. That has people justifiably excited. I’m not quite ready to throw away the Houston tenure, recognizing that means I probably won’t have any shares. 48. Manuel Margot, San Diego Padres 49. Ender Inciarte, Atlanta Braves 50. Keon Broxton, Milwaukee Brewers 51. Jarrod Dyson, Seattle Mariners 52. Travis Jankowski, San Diego Padres Margot should hit atop the Padres lineup and be good for 20 steals right out of the gate. The average will be there eventually. Inciarte is the older, more proven version of Margot. Broxton has a speed-power combo that makes it easy to dream. That strikeout rate, though. His batting average is gonna be brutal. PECOTA has Dyson projected for 60 steals, which, no. Jankowski rounds out this group of rabbits. Playing time in the San Diego grass is tough to figure, but Jankowski only needed 383 plate appearances to steal 30 bases last season. As Dyson has proven over the past five seasons, high-volume steals from part-time players are plenty worthy of an OF5 investment. 53. Adam Duvall, Cincinnati Reds 54. Melky Cabrera, Chicago White Sox 55. Hunter Pence, San Francisco Giants 56. Jay Bruce, New York Mets Duvall and Bruce could each make another run at 30 homers, just be prepared for a batting average in the .230s if you sign up. Melky’s as boring as it gets, yet somehow at the end of the year you look up and he’s flirted with .300 again and compiled 140 R+RBI. Pence has only played in 158 games over the past two seasons. Expect solid production when he’s in there and at least one trip to the DL. 57. Austin Meadows, Pittsburgh Pirates 58. Hunter Renfroe, San Diego Padres 59. Jorge Soler, Kansas City Royals 60. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees If you read the first part of the rankings, you might remember the section of young players in the 15-20 range. I fully expect Meadows to be there next year. He does everything well, all he needs is an opening. It’s a plus for his long-term development that Pittsburgh hasn’t created one yet. Meadows could use more reps at the upper levels as he tries to complete a healthy season, something he’s only done once in the last three years. I’m not as high on Renfroe’s ability to hit major league pitching as some others, but there’s no denying the raw power. I feel similarly about Soler as I do Puig. The raw tools are all there, and the fact that he sported a .293 TAv in 2016 was completely obscured by his part-time role and the other talent around him. Soler will finally get a chance to show what he can do with a full-time job, which may just be the key to rousing some of that potential out of its current dormancy. I have the same belief in Judge’s raw power that I do in Renfroe’s, with even less confidence about his ability to get to it against major league pitching. 42 strikeouts in 95 plate appearances will do that. 61. Jason Heyward, Chicago Cubs 62. Jacoby Ellsbury, New York Yankees 63. Leonys Martin, Seattle Mariners 64. Tyler Naquin, Cleveland Indians 65. David Peralta, Arizona Diamondbacks 66. Shin Soo Choo, Texas Rangers 67. Cameron Maybin, Los Angeles Angels 68. Corey Dickerson, Tampa Bay Rays 69. Steven Souza, Tampa Bay Rays 70. Josh Reddick, Houston Astros Guys with jobs now and decent odds they will have jobs going forward. 71. Clint Frazier, New York Yankees 72. Lewis Brinson, Milwaukee Brewers 73. Roman Quinn, Philadelphia Phillies 74. Tyler O’Neill, Seattle Mariners 75. Blake Swihart, Boston Red Sox Prospects who will have jobs on or before Opening Day 2018. And a catcher. 76. Rajai Davis, Oakland Athletics 77. Carlos Beltran, Houston Astros 78. Matt Holliday, New York Yankees 79. Curtis Granderson, New York Mets 80. Brett Gardner, New York Yankees 81. Denard Span, San Francisco Giants 82. Jayson Werth, Washington Nationals 83. Nick Markakis, Atlanta Braves 84. Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals What’s 100 minus 84? 85. Eddie Rosario, Minnesota Twins 86. Alex Dickerson, San Diego Padres 87. Avisail Garcia, Chicago White Sox 88. Andrew Toles, Los Angeles Dodgers 89. Aaron Altherr, Philadelphia Phillies Is it just me or would Oswaldo Arcia fit right in here? 90. Raimel Tapia, Colorado Rockies 91. Bradley Zimmer, Cleveland Indians 92. Nick Williams, Philadelphia Phillies 93. Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds This is me saying that I think these prospects are overrated. 94. Matt Joyce, Los Angeles Angels 95. Kevin Pillar, Toronto Blue Jays 96. Melvin Upton, Toronto Blue Jays 97. Hyun Soo Kim, Baltimore Orioles 98. Michael Saunders, Philadelphia Phillies 99. Gerardo Parra, Colorado Rockies 100. Rymer Liriano, Chicago White Sox No seriously, this is the year Rymer does his thing in the majors.
Greg Wellemeyer is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @gregwellemeyer
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Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and ALCS Gam...
I'm surprised by Hyun-Soo Kim as he seemed to have good numbers after a rough adjustment period?
I like his ability to hit for average but think it will be empty and I expect he'll be in a pretty strict platoon.