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February 7, 2017 Fantasy Tiered RankingsShortstopTo read the previous editions in this series, follow the links below:
Welcome back to our five-star, positional ranking series. Today, we’ll look at shortstops. Five-star players are the studs at their position. In general, they are the players who will be nabbed in the first couple of rounds of the draft, and will fetch mixed-league auction bids over $30. Four-star players are a cut below the studs at the position. They will also be early-round selections, and are projected to be worth more than $20 in most cases. Three-star players are the last tier in which players are projected to provide double-digit dollar value in auctions, and two-star players are projected to earn single digits in dollar value in auctions. One-star players are late-round sleepers and roster placeholders. The positional tiers aren't a regurgitation of last year's values but rather offer insight into what we expect will happen in 2017. Positional eligibility for the series is determined by 20 games or more at a position in the majors, with priority determined using the following order: catcher, shortstop, second base, third base, outfield, first base, and designated hitter. Designated hitters were ranked with first basemen. Players who played fewer than 20 games at a position in the majors are ranked at the position they played most frequently. Players who did not play in the majors in 2016 are ranked at the position they played most in the minors. Since there are no players who are eligible at both catcher and shortstop, every player with shortstop eligibility is profiled in this space. Dollar values come from last year's PFM using a 12-team, standard 5x5 scoring format, with 23-man rosters and the following positions: C (2) 1B (1) 2B (1) 3B (1) SS (1) CI (1) MI (1) OF (5) UT (1) P (9). The minimum bid for players is $1, and we allocate $180 of a $260 budget to hitters. The PFM is customizable, so if your league uses a different format you can adjust it to match your league settings and see how it impacts players' dollar values. Five Star
To get into an elite tier at any position, you must have at least some speed, and nearly every player in the five-star tier fit this bill in 2016. Villar’s speed speaks for itself, but the somewhat “sneaky” contributions of Lindor, Correa, and Bogaerts are what allow them to punch their tickets into the elite class. It is fair to wonder if Villar “belongs” in this tier after his out-of-nowhere breakout campaign, but considering his age (25) and the fact that 2016 represented his first legitimate opportunity at playing time, it isn’t a stretch to suggest Villar can earn another $25-30 in mixed. Machado and Seager didn’t run in 2016, but are in this tier because they are both capable of 35 home run, .300 batting average seasons, although in Seager’s case this is more of a long-term proposition. Seager’s raw numbers look somewhat soft relative to some in this tier, but consider that he was a 22-year-old rookie who held his own his second time through the league. Machado is more of a risk not to run going forward, but he fits the rare model of a player like Miguel Cabrera, who can pop up into the $30s as a four-category monster even without the steals. Machado doesn’t turn 25 until July. Correa was only disappointing if you were expecting him to keep pace with his blistering 2015. He is 22 years old. The odds are good that the best is yet to come. Five-Star Value Pick: Francisco Lindor Four Star
The four-star tier has two shortstops who barely missed the five-star tier and, based on 2016 stats alone, could make a case for residing there. Story’s ADP is barely below Lindor’s so Story’s ranking is an acknowledgement that we don’t quite believe that Story belongs in the elite tier. His raw power and the allure of Coors Field make it tempting to project 40-45 home runs, but it is very likely that pitchers work more carefully with Story in his sophomore season. Four-Star Value Pick: Jean Segura Three Star
There was a time when you could close your eyes and find a speedster quite easily at shortstop, but those days are gone, at least for the time being. Nunez is an easy four-star shortstop if you believe his 2016 was legitimate but a significant drop in his second half numbers combined with Nunez’s age make it fair to wonder if he was a one-year wonder. However, even if Nunez “only” steals an empty 25-30 bases, he will have value in every format among this group of players. With nearly half of the three-star tier sporting 20+ home run power, it makes breaking past this tier impossible without at least some value in batting average. It is difficult to stomach looking at Tulowitzki in this tier, but he hasn’t run in years and has been a league average hitter the last two seasons. He has been relatively healthy, but it turns out that 130 games of Tulo outside of Coors isn’t particularly exciting. Russell’s talent and youth are tantalizing, but the low batting average and inconsistency limit his ceiling, and in redraft leagues you don’t want to be too aggressive. Swanson is a dynamic, exciting talent, but a lot of what you are drafting is a solid batting average to go with a full season worth of at bats. Three-Star Value Pick: Asdrubal Cabrera Two Star
If you’re looking for youth and upside, Arcia and Peraza fit the bill, although thanks to his fast start and mid-season injury it is easy to forget that Diaz has not played a full major league season either. Peraza’s stats leap off the page, thanks to 21 steals in half a season. The big question with Peraza is whether he will get a shot to start for the Reds or not. Arcia is much more of a speculative pick based on last year’s stats, although based on projected playing time he has a much better chance of pushing into a higher tier than Peraza does. Everyone in this tier either has some sort of deficiency or hasn’t proven himself over the course of a full season. Gregorius had a solid year using fantasy-oriented numbers, but the batted ball data portends poorly for future success, even though Yankee Stadium obviously helps. Diaz is being ranked much higher than this by NFBC drafters, but his strong 2016 was fueled largely by a hot April, and the lack of a minor-league track record suggests that caution is wise. The Cardinals logjam with Gyorko, Jhonny Peralta and Kolten Wong could also cut into Diaz’s playing time, particularly if Diaz struggles again defensively. Gyorko’s 2016 numbers are yet another useful reminder of how the value of power has diminished significantly in standard of shallow fantasy leagues. In 2016, Gyorko was a replacement level middle infielder in 12-team mixed. Two-Star Value Pick: Alcides Escobar One Star
Galvis is the player in this tier who jumps off the page. He’d probably rank higher if it wasn’t for the fact that top Phillies’ prospect J.P. Crawford is waiting in the wings. Despite the bad batting average, Galvis’ power/speed combination seems legitimate, and while he isn’t a world beater, he does give the Phillies a nice problem to have up the middle. Polanco is going to be one of those incredibly boring AL-only contributors if he doesn’t completely fall off of the map like every Twins shortstop does after a respectable season. Marte’s defense is what will keep him on the field if he sticks in the majors, but even in a steals hungry fantasy context he is going to have to do much more with the bat to make him a palatable fantasy option in mixed. One-Star Value Pick: Zack Cozart
Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MikeGianella
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Did Andrelton Simmons not make the cut?
He did not.
I'm writing a short paragraph about him for tomorrow's AL-only piece in case you want my take on him.