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January 26, 2017 The -Only League LandscapeNational League Second Basemen
Strange things are afoot at the keystone. As my colleague George Bissell noted in his State of the Position article for second base, “…second basemen posted a .771 OPS last year. That’s a higher mark than nearly every other position, with the exception of first base, third base and designated hitter.” That’s a pretty significant reconfiguration of the defensive spectrum, a world in which the guys manning the keystone outhit the outfielders. The position’s numbers weren’t just the product of one or two extreme outliers last year, either – the production increase at second base was widespread. The NL list is a little thinner at the top than the AL list, though, which includes stars including Jose Altuve, Robinson Cano, Brian Dozier, Rougned Odor, and Ian Kinsler.
That doesn’t mean that second base is thin in the senior circuit. Let’s take a look at the ten most expensive second basemen at auction in 2016 in NL-Only leagues:
Table 1: 10 Most Expensive* NL Second Basemen, 2016
*Position eligibility in Table 1 is determined based on preseason eligibility. In addition, the figures in Table 1 are rounded to the nearest whole number. Expanded to one decimal point, the average earnings (S) were 18.6, the average price was 19.1 and the +/- was -0.5.
Dee Gordon was suspended for 80 games in April, costing him half a season and costing roto owners half of their $30+ investment. He still returned $14 over the 79 games he played, mostly on the strength of the 30 bases he stole. Given the decline in stolen base totals around the league, those steals stand out. After leading the league in steals in 2014 and 2015 and in batting average in 2015, the soon-to-be 29-year-old should once again be one of the most expensive options at second base in the NL. In OBP leagues, knock Gordon’s bid limit down a buck or two since his walk rate is below average.
On the other hand, Gordon’s extreme lack of power stands out, too. In his half season, he had only 14 RBI and hit only one home run (a memorable one). His average dipped down to .268 last season, too, making that .333 average he posted in 2015 look like more of an aberration considering that it’s his only .300 season aside from a 56-game stint with the Dodgers in 2011. His steals are extremely valuable and he’ll score a fair amount of runs, but he’s not a lock to provide much value in BA and he’s virtually guaranteed to contribute very little in HR and RBI. He should be valuable in 2017, but his value will come via two or three categories, not all five.
The biggest profit center on this list is Daniel Murphy, who made an intra-division move from the Mets to the Nationals last offseason. He showed that his power spike from the end of the 2015 season and the 2015 playoff run was no fluke, adding power to his profile without negatively impacting his contact skills. He hit 25 home runs and drove in 104 runs while leading the league in slugging percentage and OPS and finishing second in the league in batting average with a .347 mark. Entering his age-32 season, Murphy is unlikely to go for less than $30 in NL-only leagues due to his combination of power and average. Murphy should shed a buck or two off his bid limit in OBP leagues since his walk rate was one of the few aspects of his performance that Murphy didn’t improve in 2016.
The guy who beat out Murphy for the NL batting title was the only other player on this list to earn $10 or more in profit last year. DJ LeMahieu’s .348 average in 2016 came on the heels of a .301 mark in 2015, suggesting that he may have the ability to consistently hit for a high average, especially when playing half of his games in Coors Field. The 11 home runs and 11 stolen bases helped make him a well-rounded fantasy contributor, although 11 home runs don’t go as far at second base as they used to.
Now let’s take a look at the list of NL second basemen ranked by 2016 earnings:
Table 2: Top 10 NL Second Basemen, 2016
*The figures in Table 2 are rounded to the nearest whole number. Expanded to one decimal point, the average earnings (S) were 21.3, the average price was 17.5 and the +/- was 3.8.
The aforementioned Murphy and LeMahieu headline the list, followed closely by the biggest surprise at second base in the National League last season (aside from Gordon’s suspension): Washington’s Trea Turner. In 73 games, the rookie played like an unholy combination of Daniel Murphy and Dee Gordon, stealing 33 bases and hitting 13 home runs in less than half a season while hitting .342. Speed has always been Turner’s calling card, but the home run power was something that he had not demonstrated throughout his minor league career. If he can retain the gains he made in power and keep his average above .300, he’ll be a monster in 2017, but those are two big ifs. If you don’t think he’ll do both, you probably won’t be the one in your league that winds up buying Turner at auction.
Here are a few lower-tier options at second base in NL-only leagues that are worth investigating as long as they stay inexpensive.
Ryan Schimpf – Padres (2016 NL-only earnings: $9) Trea Turner was the biggest surprise in the NL at second base last season since he put up elite numbers in half a season. He wasn’t exactly an unknown commodity though, as he ranked 13th on Baseball Prospectus’ Top 101 Prospects list before the season. Ryan Schimpf was a different kind of surprise, coming out of nowhere as a 28-year-old rookie to hit 20 home runs in only 89 games. His contact skills leave a lot to be desired, though, as his .217 average and 32 percent strikeout rate from his debut season mark him as a risky proposition to post a playable average in 2017. On the other hand, his 13 percent walk rate was excellent and in line with his minor league numbers, giving him a little more value in OBP leagues. Even with power and walks, a hitter with Schimpf’s swing-and-miss profile walks a tightrope, always a brief slump away from seeing his average slip below the Mendoza line and ending up on the bench. That said, his competition at the keystone in San Diego isn’t very stiff, so the Padres might just see if he can get to the 30 home run mark in a full season, average be damned.
Jace Peterson – Braves ($8)
Ozzie Albies – Braves (n/a)
Alen Hanson – Pirates ($1)
Kolten Wong – Cardinals ($6)
Scooter Hotz is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @wavingatyou
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Was Forsythe considered for this list?
Logan Forsythe was not considered for either of the tables in this article. For Table 1, he would not have been auctioned in any NL-only leagues since he was in the AL at the time. For Table 2, he did not have any earnings in NL-only leagues since he spent the entire season in the AL.
That said, in AL-only leagues, he went for an average price of $14, which would have placed him in a tie for 9th with Howie Kendrick in Table 1. In an AL-only context, he earned $16, which would have placed him in a tie for 9th with Neil Walker. Comparisons like this are flawed since the player pools in each league were different and the in-season context of a given stat line differs from league to league. These marks are good ballpark figures for determining how Forsythe would have stacked up in NL-only leagues, though.
Thanks.
I own Forsythe in a mixed league and Walker is perhaps the best 2B available for re-draft. Your comparison, however flawed it might be, would indicate it's probably not worth my time to try and chase Walker.
If I had to pick between Forsythe and Walker for 2017, I'd lean towards Forsythe. I'm a little worried about Walker's health.