January 19, 2017

The -Only League Landscape

National League First Basemen

by Scooter Hotz

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The top end of the player pool at first base in the National League is deep, but things get dicey quickly after that. The quality drops off in a hurry before the player population abruptly ends. As my colleague Mike Gianella specifies in his Fantasy Tiered Rankings for First Basemen:

"Positional eligibility for the series is determined by 20 games or more at a position in the majors, with priority determined using the following order: catcher, shortstop, second base, third base, outfield, and first base, and designated hitter. Designated hitters are ranked with first basemen."

Positional priority means that players eligible at both first base and a position other than first base will be ranked at the other position rather than at first base (I’m talking about you, Buster Posey). It also means you’ll see less players in the first base player pool than you will at any other position, as players with multi-position eligibility will not be grouped with the first basemen.

Okay, with all of that out of the way, let’s dig in to the actual position and how it played out. Compared to a lot of other positions, first base was a good place to spend, especially for the high-priced players. Each of the top four players at the position in terms of auction price earned at least $27. That doesn’t guarantee a profit, but it means you’ll be getting a substantial amount of stats, and that’s what really matters with your expensive players. Only two of the ten most expensive players returned less than $17. The series is just getting started, but I’d guess that’s as good or better than any other position we’ll examine in NL-only leagues.

Let’s take a look at the ten first basemen who cost the most at auction in 2016 in NL-Only leagues:

Table 1: 10 Most Expensive* NL First Basemen, 2016

Rank	Player	$	Price	+/-
1	Paul Goldschmidt	$35	$42	-7
2	Anthony Rizzo	$27	$37	-10
3	Joey Votto	$32	$32	0
4	Freddie Freeman	$30	$26	4
5	Adrian Gonzalez	$19	$26	-7
6	Brandon Belt	$17	$22	-5
7	Lucas Duda	$3	$22	-19
8	Wil Myers	$29	$18	11
9	Justin Bour	$10	$18	-8
10	Chris Carter	$18	$16	2
	Average	$22	$26	-4

*Position eligibility in Table 1 is determined based on preseason eligibility.

Cubs’ first baseman Anthony Rizzo lost $10, but that’s not his fault. It’s mostly due to the optimism of the owners who purchased him at auction expecting significant growth at the plate in his age-26 season and continued success on the basepaths. Instead, he turned in a line that was eerily similar to his 2015 results in AVG, HR, R and RBI while his SB total dropped from 17 to three. Those 17 steals in 2015 were way out of line with his career numbers prior to 2015, making them look fluky at the time.

Speaking of fluky steal totals, Wil Myers owes a lot of the $11 profit he accrued for his owners to his 28 stolen bases, more than doubling his previous best mark of 13. He also managed to play a full season for the first time in his four years in the majors, racking up 676 plate appearances after never having more than 373 in a season before.

Paul Goldschmidt stole 30+ bases for the first time in his career, but his average dropped from .321 to .297 while his home run total dropped from 33 to 24 while the rest of the league boosted their homer totals. His owners paid him as if he was going to repeat his 2015 performance, driving his $7 loss. Still, getting $35 of earnings from $42 spent is far from a disaster. After all, he did top the list of NL first basemen ranked by 2016 earnings:

Table 2: Top 10 NL First Basemen, 2016

Rank	Player	$	Price	+/-
1	Paul Goldschmidt	$35	$42	-7
2	Joey Votto	$32	$32	0
3	Freddie Freeman	$30	$26	4
4	Wil Myers	$29	$18	11
5	Anthony Rizzo	$27	$37	-10
6	Adrian Gonzalez	$19	$26	-7
7	Chris Carter	$18	$16	2
8	Brandon Belt	$17	$22	-5
9	Tommy Joseph	$12	n/a	n/a
10	Justin Bour	$10	$18	-8
	Average	$23	$26	-2

Nine of the 10 players in this table also appeared in Table 1 earlier, proving the point that first base was a safe place to spend in NL-only leagues in 2016. Lucas Duda dropped off the list due to a back injury that limited him to only 47 games. Tommy Joseph went undrafted going into the 2016 season but ended up earning $12 while splitting time with Ryan Howard in Philadelphia, mostly on the strength of 21 home runs.

Here are a few lower tier options at first base in NL-only leagues that are worth investigating as long as they stay inexpensive.

Tommy Joseph – Phillies (2016 NL-only earnings: $12)

A series of health issues including complications from concussions moved Tommy Joseph out from behind the plate permanently and limited him to 36 games in 2013, 27 in 2014 and 58 in 2015. He always had power as a prospect, but after not playing much for three seasons, health issues and a move from catcher to first base, expectations were low heading into 2016. He hit .347/.370/.611 in Triple-A to start the year while Ryan Howard struggled mightily in the majors until the Phillies decided to see what they had in Joseph. Splitting time with the last man standing from the 2008 World Series champs, the 25-year-old hit .257/.308/.505 with 21 homers, 47 RBI, 47 R, and 1 SB in 347 plate appearances. With Howard out of the picture, no significant platoon issues and little competition for playing time, Joseph is a decent bet to improve on his 2016 numbers as long as his plate discipline doesn’t sink him.

Josh Bell – Pirates ($4)
Despite his size, Josh Bell hasn’t hit for much power as a professional, at least so far. He has shown good plate discipline and contact skills, though, and that includes the 45 games he played in the majors with the Pirates. It looks like he’ll start the season in the majors on the good side of a platoon with David Freese at first base. If he hits well, Pittsburgh is likely to let him play nearly every day since he is a switch-hitter and has more upside than the 33-year-old veteran.

Lucas Duda – Mets ($3)
Lucas Duda’s disappointing 2016 season should keep his price low going into auctions this spring, as should the fact that he’s expected to sit against most lefties in favor of Wilmer Flores. While the back injury is certainly worrisome and the soon-to-be 31-year-old hasn’t hit for average for a long time, his power is legitimate if he’s healthy. Sitting against lefties could even be beneficial, buoying his average by taking away plate appearances in which he was unlikely to do much anyway, resting his balky back in the process.

Ryan Zimmerman – Nationals ($8)
He was limited to 115 games due to a wrist injury after missing significant time to injuries in both 2014 and 2015. He hit .218/.272/.370 when he was healthy, the worst line of his career. None of the indicators are pointing in the right direction for Ryan Zimmerman, but he should have the first shot at the bulk of the at-bats at first base for the Nationals. He’s worth a flier in case he finds his old form in the middle of a stacked Nats lineup, but don’t spend more than a buck or two on him due to his risk profile.

Matt Adams – Cardinals ($9)
It’s not clear where Matt Adams fits into the Cardinals plans this season. Last year, he hit a disappointing .249/.309/.471 while struggling with injuries. St. Louis got creative with their lineup in his absence, shuffling players around between the infield and the outfield. The 28-year-old will probably start the year on the bench, pinch-hitting against righties and getting spot starts at first base. He has shown glimpses of real power in the past, though, so if he finds his power stroke early, he could work his way into more plate appearances and some real value. The most likely outcome is that he’ll fade away, but the upside is that he’s a late bloomer like his former teammate Brandon Moss, finding playing time and his power stroke in his late 20s. Don’t spend more than a buck or two on him, but when you get down to the endgame or dollar derby portion of your auction, it’s better to bid on a guy with some upside like Adams rather than a safer choice, even if that upside is limited to one tool and fairly unlikely to manifest.

First base is one of the safest places to make your big-dollar buy (or buys) at auction in NL-only leagues. Nine of the 10 most expensive NL-Only first basemen also appear on the list of the ten highest earning NL-Only first basemen. Spend confidently, and try to get one of the five top guys as long as their salaries don’t get out of hand. And remember the lesson from Anthony Rizzo’s fluky spike in steals from 2015: don’t bet on Wil Myers to steal as many bases as he did last year.

Scooter Hotz is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @wavingatyou
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