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January 17, 2017 Fantasy Tiered RankingsFirst Basemen
Welcome back to our fantasy positional ratings series at Baseball Prospectus. Things can only get better from here on out, as we move from the not-so-fun duties of ranking catchers to the much more fun assignment of ranking first basemen. Once again, I rated the players at the position and then received the feedback of our crack team of fantasy writers in order to bring you a mix of my ratings at the position along with a reality check from the rest of our staff if I was too low or high on a specific player. Let’s get right to it. Five-star players are the studs at their position. In general, they are the players who will be nabbed in the first couple of rounds of the draft, and will fetch mixed-league auction bids over $30. Four-star players are a cut below the studs at the position. They will also be early-round selections, and they are projected to be worth more than $20 in most cases. Three-star players are the last tier in which players are projected to provide double-digit dollar value in auctions, and two-star players are projected to earn single digits in dollar value in auctions. One-star players are late-round sleepers and roster placeholders. The positional tiers aren't simply a regurgitation of last year's values but rather offer insight into what we expect will happen in 2017. Positional eligibility for the series is determined by 20 games or more at a position in the majors, with priority determined using the following order: catcher, shortstop, second base, third base, outfield, and first base, and designated hitter. Designated hitters are ranked with first basemen. Players who played fewer than 20 games at a position in the majors are ranked at the position they played most frequently. Players who did not play in the majors in 2016 are ranked at the position they played most in the minors. Chris Davis played three games in the outfield in 2016. He is not eligible at that position this year. Dollar values come from last year's PFM using a 12-team, standard 5x5 scoring format, with 23-man rosters and the following positions: C (2) 1B (1) 2B (1) 3B (1) SS (1) CI (1) MI (1) OF (5) UT (1) P (9). The minimum bid for players is $1, and we allocate $180 of a $260 budget to hitters. The PFM is customizable, so if your league uses a different format you can adjust it to match your league settings and see how it impacts players' dollar values. FIVE STAR
Goldschmidt, Rizzo, and Cabrera triumphantly return to the five-star tier after putting up another year of elite numbers across four categories and – in Goldschmidt’s case – five. Cabrera rebounded in power as my former colleague J.P. Breen suggested he would in last year’s star ranking article. Miggy’s 38 home run season was his highest total in the category since his 2013 MVP season. Miggy’s career resume has Hall of Fame written all over it, and while you don’t want to go overboard for 34-year-old players, Miggy is that rare example of a player without stolen bases who you can feel comfortable paying $30 or more for or taking late in the first round or early in the second round of your draft. Five-Star Value Pick: Joey Votto FOUR STAR
Freeman was the best first baseman in the majors by TAv in 2016. If you believe his breakout was real, move him up a tier. Encarnacion is a three-category monster who will always have trouble pushing his earnings into the $30s because of a mediocre batting average. Myers deserves a five-star ranking based on last year’s stats, but healthy cynicism about the sustainability of those steals – and perhaps his wrist – is warranted. I’d be comfortable with any of these players anchoring my corner infield. They just don’t quite match up with the top dogs, and there’s certainly no shame in that. Four-Star Value Pick: Hanley Ramirez THREE STAR
These are all solid options to stick at first, or in Martinez’s case DH, but you can see some of the warts on display in the three-star tier. Davis has as much raw power as anyone at the position, but a high strikeout rate limits his batting average and lowers his ceiling. He’s currently being drafted 77th overall in NFBC drafts, which is slightly higher than his 2016 final ranking of 88th. Some will ignore the average and stretch for Davis, but given the plethora of options in standard mixed leagues, that would be a mistake. Hosmer is not likely to live up to the top billing he had as a prospect, but as a consistent source of 15-20 home run power who has been healthy for four of the last five seasons, he gets another look in the three-star tier. Santana had the best power year of his major league career and also managed to post a batting average that wasn’t a detriment. It is not a good idea to bet on a repeat, and if he slips back to his 2015 levels without the steals he’ll be overpriced in this tier. Three-Star Value Pick: Victor Martinez TWO STAR
There is a great deal of power potential in the two-star tier, but it comes with a good deal of injury, playing time, and/or performance risk. Bour and Duda could find themselves as part of a platoon on their respective teams, although the Marlins have hinted that Bour could face lefties this year. Adrian Gonzalez isn’t seen as a platoon bat, but since 2014 he has a .659 OPS against lefties. The combination of Gonzalez’s advancing age and drop off against left-handed pitching make him a poor bet to bounce back. Previously an afterthought due to lingering concussion issues, Joseph put himself back on the map last year with a .248 ISO that indicated his power is legitimate. Even more encouraging were Joseph’s numbers against right-handers. Fourteen of his 21 home runs came versus righties, and his overall numbers against them were slightly above league average. A platoon with Ryan Howard masks some of Joseph’s value; he was on pace to hit 37 home runs over the course of 550 at bats. Two-Star Value Pick: Lucas Duda ONE STAR
If your primary first baseman comes from this tier, you are going to have a bad time unless you are in an only-league. Moreland stands in for the reliable and the boring who don’t appear in this article. This includes players like Yonder Alonso, who will get almost definitely get a full season of at bats but offers no upside. In shallow leagues, don’t bother with players like this on your reserve list. Roll the dice on Dan Vogelbach or A.J. Reed instead. Napoli is your best bet in the one-star tier, but this assumes that he will land a full-time role somewhere. Zimmerman probably doesn’t even belong in the one-star tier, but I couldn’t bring myself to cut him out completely. He had one healthy/productive month in 2016, when he hit seven home runs with a 262/316/546 slash in May. Beyond that, he was flat out awful. I wouldn’t touch Bird or Bell in a standard mixed redraft league, but in deeper mixed there is enough upside with both to consider adding either one as a corner infielder. Bell’s lack of a traditional corner infield power profile isn’t encouraging, but he could make up for that with his batting average. Bird hit the cover off the ball before getting hurt; the hope is that he picks up where he left off in 2015. One-Star Value Pick: Steve Pearce
Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MikeGianella
21 comments have been left for this article.
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I understand that there's a slippery slope when it comes to considering players with 1B eligibility, but it may not be their primary position. That being said, Yuli Gurriel? All I've read has him getting bulk reps as a first baseman. Also, how many negative stars does Billy Butler have? Last, does Danny Valencia's platoon split not provide enough to warrant consideration?
currently it sounds like valencia is going to be on the short side of a platoon with vogelbach in seattle, so that's not really enough to get him on a list like this. personally i do think his improvements vs RHP the past couple years are real and he'd be a decent option if he got full-time at-bats, but, as it stands, he probably won't, so
Gurriel is only 3B eligible based on his 2016 games played.
Butler is AL-only all the way for me, assuming he even gets a job somewhere.
Valencia is 3B/OF eligible using the positional eligibility requirements outlined above. Both he and Gurriel would have been included in this article if they were 1B eligible only
First, I want to say thank you for taking the time to write an in depth article. These are very helpful. I really enjoy your work. It's easy to chirp from the peanut gallery and nitpick your hard work. I will readily acknowledge I missed the preface regarding your ranking of players that did not play a position.
I guess my constructive feedback would be this...You seem to contradict your point about eligibility based on 2016 games when you run the exercise for Victor Martinez and Kendrys Morales. Two players you acknowledge as DH only. The former likely to remain there for the rest of his career. Then, you undercut your statement of offering incite of what to expect in 2017 when omitting players like Gurriel and Valencia. Players we know will receive 1B eligibility in short order. Again, just some constructive feedback. I look forward to reading more of your work in the future.
just ask where chris davis is and be done with it