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January 13, 2017 The -Only League LandscapeNational League Catchers
The top end of the NL-only catcher pool wasn’t nearly as thin as the top end of the AL-only catcher pool going into the 2016 season. As my colleague Mike Gianella noted in his AL-Only Landscape for catchers, in the AL, the most expensive catchers heading into Opening Day were Brian McCann and Salvador Perez at $16. In the NL, four catchers went for the same or more: Buster Posey at $29, Kyle Schwarber at $25, Jonathan Lucroy at $19 and Travis d’Arnaud at $16. Unlike the AL, owners concerned about positional scarcity had multiple legitimate options for spending their auction dollars.
Things did not go well for most of the owners choosing to swim in this end of the pool.
Table 1: Ten Most Expensive* NL Catchers, 2016
*Position eligibility in Table 1 is determined based on preseason eligibility.
An ROI of 65 cents on the dollar is awful, but it beats the 50 cents on the dollar that AL-only leagues saw from the top 10 backstops in the Junior Circuit. Only two of the ten catchers above earned more than their sticker price, Wilson Ramos (+9) and J.T. Realmuto (+6). While the trend towards emphasizing framing prowess and overall defense over offense behind the plate is a contributing factor to the poor performance of this group, the primary factor was attrition. Two of the top four (Schwarber, d’Arnaud) and three of the top six (Schwarber, d’Arnaud and Mesoraco) catchers in this table played 75 games or less due to injury, and another (Lucroy) was traded to the AL at the deadline. Looking ahead, Lucroy and Ramos will no longer be in the NL and Schwarber will no longer be catcher-eligible in most leagues after playing all two of his games in 2016 in left field, weakening a position that wasn’t exactly bursting with production to begin with.
Realmuto and Ramos were nice surprises for their owners, translating playing time and .300+ batting averages into profit for their owners. Ramos hit twice as many homers as Realmuto to go along with that shiny batting average, giving him the edge in total earnings. Buster Posey didn’t earn as much as his owners paid for him, but at least he provided $20 in stats, tied for the lead at the position in NL-Only leagues with Ramos. For a more in-depth look at Posey, check out my Player Profile on him.
Let’s take a look at the rest of the top 10 earners from 2016:
Table 2: Top 10 NL Catchers, 2016
The performances from Posey and Lucroy were predictably solid. Check out my Fantasy Player Profile of Posey from earlier this week for a more detailed take on him. Lucroy was well on his way to earning every bit of his auction price and then some when he was traded to the Rangers, freezing his NL stats at the end of July. Realmuto made it onto this list via his .300+ average and his 12 stolen bases – no other NL-only catcher reached double digits in steals. The speed seems like something that the Miami backstop could sustain going forward given his minor league SB totals, but he’d have to get on base enough to give himself sufficient opportunities to steal bases and his minor league numbers and the variability of batting average do not suggest that another .300 AVG season is likely.
Willson Contreras is the only undrafted player on this list. He earned his way into the majors and the lineup of the World Series champion Cubs (that really happened, right?) after raking in Double-A in 2015 and in Triple-A in the first half of 2016. He looks ready for his first full season in the majors this coming year, and he could get some extra plate appearances due to his ability to play the outfield and his manager’s willingness to move his players around the diamond. Cameron Rupp had a nice season for the Phillies, hitting 16 home runs in only 419 plate appearances and giving the organization the freedom to bring catching prospect Jorge Alfaro along slowly.
Yadier Molina had a decent comeback season for the Cardinals, hitting .307 over 147 games, albeit with only eight home runs. The most important thing for him is the fact that he was able to be a productive member of the lineup all year after struggling with injuries over the last couple of seasons. Yasmani Grandal’s production had a much different shape, pairing a shabby .228 average with 27 home runs. The Dodgers love his elite pitch-framing ability, so he’ll get plenty of playing time as long as he stays healthy, which has been a problem for him in the past.
Here are a few options at catcher in NL-only leagues that
Tyler Flowers – Braves (2016 NL-only earnings: $7)
Austin Barnes – Dodgers ($-1)
Andrew Susac – Brewers ($0)
Devin Mesoraco – Reds ($-1)
Tom Murphy – Rockies ($3)
Tony Wolters – Rockies ($6)
For NL-Only catchers, when it comes to the shallow end of the pool, be stingy. There are a few guys who are worth an extra dollar or two at auction than others, but there’s so much variability with these players from season to season, trying to figure out which of these players will be the ones who break out is a fool’s errand. Some of these guys will sustain their unexpectedly good performances from last year and some won’t. Some of these guys will bounce back from down seasons and some won’t. Some guys who can’t stay healthy will be healthy and some guys who never get hurt will get hurt. While those statements are true at every position, the narrower range of performances and the lower number of games played at catcher make the differences from player to player smaller than other positions. Unless you’re getting a bargain, save your offensive dollars for other positions.
Scooter Hotz is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @wavingatyou
8 comments have been left for this article.
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Great stuff, Scooter. This has become a go-to resource for me for my NL only prep. Thanks.