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January 12, 2017 The -Only League LandscapeAmerican League Catchers
In any two-catcher format, catcher is a challenging position to fill. This is particularly true in mono leagues, where nearly every team must carry at least one backup and some teams fill both slots with a reserve. Entering 2016, only seven AL catchers were assigned a bid of $10 or more in my final AL-only bid limit update, with the top catchers – Brian McCann and Salvador Perez – sporting a modest bid limit of $16. Where in previous years AL-only fantasy managers pushed the envelope and spent on position scarcity, last year the expert market recognized that pushing too far past the earnings ceiling was foolhardy. However, two new additions – Jonathan Lucroy from the National League and Gary Sanchez in his first full season – may provide new life to the catching pool in the AL, once again offering the opportunity to spend aggressively. Evan Gattis regaining catcher eligibility also adds to the fun. How bare was the cupboard entering 2016? You have to go back to 2013 to find an AL catcher who had earned $20 or more (Victor Martinez). Including Martinez, 17 catchers earned $15 or more; however, nearly 50 percent of these $15+ seasons occurred in 2014. The shift in earnings has less to do with a lack of production and more to do with the changing earnings dynamic. Eleven AL catchers hit 10 or more home runs in 2016, a miniscule drop from 13 catchers in 2015 and 12 in 2014. With the value of a home run in the AL dropping from 27 cents per home run in 2014 down to 20 cents in 2016, a position that relies mostly on power to produce value was bound to lose ground. The expert market was more aggressive than my bid limits, but not by much. McCann cost $18 while Perez cost $16. The 10 most expensive AL catchers cost $12 on average. The days of spending for position scarcity behind the dish might be over. Half of the best AL catchers in 2016 cost $11 or more, three cost under six dollars and two were not purchased in CBS, LABR, or Tout Wars. Thus, the most expensive catchers in 2016 were a mixed bag and that bag was filled with lint. Table 1: Ten Most Expensive* AL Catchers, 2016 ADVERTISING
*Position eligibility in Table 1 is determined based on preseason eligibility. Getting an ROI of 50 cents on the dollar sounds terrible, although Gomes and Swihart were most of the problem. If you did spend at catcher last year, the best outcome you could hope for was what Perez, Martin, or Wieters did: $10-11 worth of stats and a loss, but not a loss that was absolute. Most of the fantasy experts shied away from even this proposition, preferring to play in the shallow end of the pool with catchers like Chirinos, James McCann, or Castro and hoping to break even. For the teams that did buy Gomes and Swihart, starting in a $10-12 hole isn’t the end of the world but it certainly isn’t optimal. Playing time or lack thereof is almost always a factor with catchers, and once again the shift toward framing has created more situations where teams look for defense first and worry about offense later. This is particularly true in the AL, where the pitcher doesn’t have to hit. For years, my preferred strategy in AL-only was to pair one stalwart with a one-dollar catcher and hope that my primary catcher could earn about $15. Even if I spent $18-20, getting production from at least one of my two catchers felt like a tactical advantage. In late July, I was ready to abandon this strategy because the position was so bad. But Gary Sanchez and Jonathan Lucroy have altered the landscape, and both offer the potential for a $20+ season from a catcher-eligible hitter. My goal in my AL-only leagues will be to grab one or the other. If someone else has the same idea and gets too aggressive, I won’t be afraid to spend next to nothing at catcher or even to go as far as obtaining two one-dollar catchers, in which case I’ll get my production at another position. This newfound frugality is based on the harsh realities behind the mask. Table 2: Top 10 AL Catchers, 2016
Gattis’ shift back to catching saved the position from being a complete disaster. The best catchers were predictable (five of the 10 most expensive catchers appear on Table 2), but with such a low threshold to crack the Top 10, it didn’t take much in the way of statistical contributions to appear on this list. While overspending for the handful of catchers who can earn in double-digits is foolish, it would be even sillier to assume that you’ll be the lucky soul who gets the 2017 versions of Sanchez and/or Leon. Only 18 catchers earned $3 or more last year. There are few if any fun players to dream on at this position. With so many fringe options to choose from, someone is going to stumble into this year’s Leon, either during the auction or later during the regular season. Attempting to figure out which of this year’s one-dollar catchers will turn into the 2017 version of Leon is a quixotic endeavor and it is quite possible that there is no Leon in this year’s crop. Below are a few catchers who are primarily AL-only options, who will likely not be profiled on any other fantasy website. Leon was not profiled in this space last year, but Sanchez, Suzuki and James McCann were. Suzuki is an excellent example of the sort of modest expectations you should have for profits when it comes to your catching corps in AL-only. Jason Castro – Twins. (2016 AL-only earnings: $4) Martin Maldonado – Angels ($2) Bruce Maxwell – Athletics ($2) Robinson Chirinos – Rangers ($3) Omar Narvaez – White Sox ($2) Josh Phegley – Athletics ($2) Table 3: All Other AL Catchers Purchased in 2016 ADVERTISING
Even with the inclusion of Sanchez, the cheapest catchers in the AL couldn’t manage to break even in 2016, even though they only cost two dollars on average. While McKenry’s inclusion in Table 3 seems funny, keeping him as a complete zero on your fantasy roster all year wouldn’t have been much worse than drafting most of these guys. Sixteen of the 20 catchers in Table 3 earned $2 or less. Josh Phegley was the sixteenth most expensive catcher last year. He was coming off a 2015 where he hit nine home runs in 243 plate appearances. Betting $2 on a catcher who could potentially reach double-digits in home runs is a reasonable proposition. It didn’t amount to much of anything. This was a common theme. They wore the tools of ignorance, but we were the ones who were the motley fools, the cuckholds of the fantasy realm. This is what it comes down to at catcher in an only league. I could profile a few more catchers, squint at their 2016 numbers, and gush over their miniscule upside. But there is a good deal of luck at the bottom of the barrel, and most of it is bad. It’s okay to push a personal favorite to two dollars at auction this year. Just know that your odds of getting any kind of return on your $1-3 lottery ticket are extremely poor.
Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MikeGianella
2 comments have been left for this article.
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I can't help but wonder if major leagues front offices aren't now overvaluing the importance of defence at the catching position. The pendulum may have swung too far.
Maybe it's easier to develop a catcher who can work with pitchers, frame well, etc than it is to develop a hitter who can play behind the plate consistently? Growing up SS was the black hole of offense, but with up-the-middle defenders also being offensive contributors, and improvements in defensive alignments being able to possibly mask SS and 2B defensive issues catcher is probably the only position where someone who is a defensive liability can't be protected.