November 21, 2016

Fantasy Categorical Breakdowns

The Landscape: ERA

by George Bissell

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The league-wide proliferation of home runs has fueled a rapid increase in run scoring over the past two seasons. After nearly a decade of offensive decline, major-league pitchers were the ones most adversely affected by the recent onslaught of round trippers. A confluence of factors like injuries, the aforementioned offensive uptick, and fewer starters eclipsing the 200-inning plateau have widened the gap between the upper echelon fantasy starters and the remainder of the talent pool. Before we take a deep dive into the fantasy ramifications of these latest developments, within the context of ERA, let’s survey the overall landscape.

League-average ERA and Runs Allowed per game (2002-2016)

Life comes at you fast. Just two years ago, during the 2014 campaign, major-league pitchers post the lowest single-season ERA (3.74) in nearly three decades. Back in days when Orel Hershiser, Bret Saberhagen and Greg Maddux helped lead the way to a league-wide 3.71 ERA in 1989. This past season, pitchers were tagged for more runs per game (4.48), and recorded their highest ERA (4.19), since 2009.

Further compounding the issue for fantasy owners, was a corresponding dip in starting pitcher workloads for the third consecutive year. Per Baseball-Reference data, league-average innings pitched per start had remained stable in recent years. That all changed when starters recorded the lowest single-season mark (5.6 IP/GS) in history last season.

League-average innings pitched per game started (2007-2016)

Year	IP/GS
2007	5.8
2008	5.8
2009	5.8
2010	6.0
2011	6.0
2012	5.9
2013	5.9
2014	6.0
2015	5.8
2016	5.6

Front offices (and managers) are making a conscious effort to monitor pitch counts and remain cognizant of how many times through the order their starter (especially the less talented members of their rotations) faces an opposing lineup. As a result, fewer are working deep enough into games to reach the innings thresholds fantasy owners have long been accustomed to. Simply put, 200-inning starters may be on the brink of extinction.

Major-league starters with 200-plus innings pitched (2002-2016)

Only 15 starters reached the lofty 200-inning threshold last season, down from 28 the previous year. That’s less than half as many (38) accomplished the feat a decade ago in 2007. Injuries are most likely to blame for the recent decline. Some notable examples from last year include Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill, Yu Darvish, Carlos Carrasco, Stephen Strasburg, and Danny Salazar. While they were stellar in terms of quality, each missed significant chunks of the season to injury, which tamped down their overall fantasy value. Here’s an in-depth look at the select few to eclipse the plateau in 2016.

Rank	Player	ERA	DRA	IP	Age
1	Jon Lester	2.44	3.10	202.2	32
2	Madison Bumgarner	2.74	3.25	226.2	26
3	Johnny Cueto	2.79	3.54	219.2	30
4	Tanner Roark	2.83	4.45	210.0	29
5	Max Scherzer	2.96	3.01	228.1	31
6	Justin Verlander	3.04	2.75	210.0	33
7	Corey Kluber	3.14	2.97	215.0	30
8	Rick Porcello	3.15	3.45	223.0	27
9	Jose Quintana	3.20	3.48	208.0	27
10	Cole Hamels	3.32	2.65	200.2	32
11	Chris Sale	3.34	2.69	226.2	27
12	Jeff Samardzija	3.81	4.37	203.1	31
13	David Price	3.99	2.90	230.0	30
14	Chris Archer	4.02	2.92	201.1	27
15	Marcus Stroman	4.37	3.43	204.0	25

The crop of pitchers outside the elite workhorses is becoming less appetizing to speculate on. With fewer starters providing high volume innings, and offense rebounding rapidly, constructing a staff without a true “fantasy ace” has become an even greater challenge.

Number of pitchers with ERA/DRA under 3.50 (100+ IP)

Years	ERA	DRA
2001-02	67	46
2003-04	48	40
2005-06	44	53
2007-08	50	55
2009-10	66	63
2011-12	86	72
2013-14	116	97
2015-16	80	72

As Baseball Prospectus in-house valuations guru and regular co-host on the Flags Fly Forever podcast, Mike Gianella, discussed in his recent NL-only retrospective player valuations recap:

“The evolution in pitcher usage is going to have as much of an impact on fantasy as it will in reality. Chasing third starters into the $10-15 range when so many relievers earn the same amount – or close to the same amount – is a mistake even some experts will make in 2017. In mono formats, it is best to add one ace, a couple of low end starting pitchers, and then hope for the best with 5-6 relief pitchers. The strategy isn’t foolproof, but neither is spending in the teens on the 2017 versions of Shelby Miller or Francisco Liriano.”

Pitchers are inherently risky fantasy propositions and that will never change. Just ask anyone that owned Matt Harvey or Sonny Gray last year. However, the data (and the variety of factors influencing it as outlined above) clearly shows that ERA’s are trending up, while innings totals are headed in the opposite direction. Despite the prevalence of defensive shifts and improved outfield alignments insulating some of the damage from the offensive renaissance, fantasy owners shouldn’t expect those two major trends to reverse in the near future. The lack of quality pitching towards the middle of the pack, especially among starters, has only added to the problem.

The rising ERA tide hasn’t lifted all boats. It’s primarily buoyed the value of elite starters instead and it’s time for fantasy owners to re-think their approach to constructing a pitching staff moving forward.

George Bissell is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @GeorgeBissell
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