Doctoring The Numbers:... (07/14)
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July 14, 2004 Mid-Season Baseball AwardsStaff Picks, 2004Index: Voting Results | Individual BallotsWelcome all to the results of the Baseball Prospectus Mid-Season Awards. The points system is 10-7-5-3-1 for the MVP and Cy Young Awards, and 5-3-1 for the Rookie Awards. BP authors' picks, with all-too-clever comments, are included here, below the awards standings. Legend
Hitters: Ballots, Points (1st Place Votes), (Avg/OBP/SLG/RARP/VORP)
BP authors' bias for up-the-middle defenders manifests itself in eight first-place votes for Pudge. Manny Ramirez has continued his annual assualt on American League pitching, posting the highest EqA in the league (.357), and maintaining his career figure of .332. Carlos Guillen, meanwhile, grabs two first-place votes and wins the Damion Easley Award™, which is given to the player who leaves a team run by Bill Bavasi, only to put up huge first-half numbers as a member of Detroit's middle infield. (Award given only once per decade.) AL MVP
The difference between Barry Bonds' and Scott Rolen's respective offensive contributions this season is greater than the difference between Frank Thomas' and Jeff DaVanon's. Nevertheless, the ongoing debate over the definition of "value" keeps Bonds from grabbing all 13 first-place votes. NL MVP
Despite nearly identical VORP and Support-Neutral numbers, Curt Schilling edges Oakland's Mark Mulder--currently the most dominant head of the Athletics' Cerberus. Brad Radke places fourth thanks to Tewksberian control and authors adjusting for the sub-par defensive support he's received in the first half. Mariano Rivera sneaks in at fifth, thanks to one first place vote, despite fewer IP and slightly fewer Adjusted Runs Prevented than teammate Tom Gordon according to Michael Wolverton's Reliever Evaluation Tools. AL Cy Young
In the closest race yet, four pitchers finish within 20 points of one another, with the youngster Ben Sheets taking the top slot. NL Cy Young
Miguel who? Recovering from a horrid April, Oakland shortstop Bobby Crosby managed to nab 11 of 13 first-place votes, vaulting himself to an easy victory over Zach Greinke. Look for Joe Mauer to challenge in the Internet Baseball Awards at the end of the year, however, as our No. 1 prospect continues to accrue playing time and tear the cover off the ball. AL ROY
In the most uninspiring of all the groups, reliever Ryan Madson barely edges Padres' shortstop Khalil Greene. For a second year in a row, a highly-touted Japanese player now making his home in New York fails to garner consideration, despite loads of preseason hype. NL ROY
AL MVP
Yes, Melvin Mora. Is he the smoothest fielding 3B in baseball? Well, no. But he's developed a batting eye, and a .433 OBP and .556 SLG are impossible to ignore. Especially when you consider that he's either traveling for road games, or staying in a home with five quintuplets. On my ballot, that's worth another 8-10 points of OBP. .500 in June? Who does that? Hank Blalock's going to channel Will Clark in his prime at the plate for a few years; it's a joy to watch that guy unload when he gets all of a pitch. Vlad Guerrero's jerky motions moving around always make me think he's hurt or something, and then you watch that swing, where he manages to center a ball that's six inches inside and at his shoulders. Pat Gillick's swollen resume precludes me from making a comment about Carlos Guillen. AL Cy Young
Thought about listing Schilling over Mulder because of my perception of the A's defense versus the Red Sox, but Mulder has been outstanding. Kenny Rogers is someone I absolutely loathe to root for--like all soft-tossing, boring-ass lefties--but he's been a key to Texas' surprising fortunes. Still, every time a junkballing lefty who spends all day trying to hit the bottom-outer black, trying to convince the umpire to expand the zone and bore the crap out of the fans, gets pounded like veal piccata, an angel gets its wings. Hudson's wormkilling ways, and Radke's luck have them filling out the ballot. AL ROY
What will NorCal sportswriters do in offseason stories about the A's if not lament the latest loss of the overpriced, just-exiting-prime veteran? Crosby's already one of the best shortstops in a stacked league, and beginning a career that should earn him eight figures. Duchscherer's not blessed with a fastball that screams "2.00 ERA! Eighteen-year career!" but he gets people out, bears a heavy load in what has been a besieged pen, and could have a very nice career. Greinke's cartoonish, freakish, string-pulling will leave thousands of batters doing a Tony Armas impersonation, attempting to drive their front foot 10-15 inches into solid earth. It's going to be fun to watch. NL MVP
Barry Bonds has more walks than outs. If he goes three-for-five, his OBP drops. His strikeout to walk ratio is 19-126. Scott Rolen's having a fine year, as are the others on this list. But, just to put things in perspective: Scott Rolen: 142 Lance Berkman: 112 Jim Thome: 158 Bobby Abreu: 124That's the length of 0-fer that Bonds would have to endure to match the OBP of each of the other four guys on my ballot. And it's not as if those guys are chopped liver. If you want to talk about someone other than Bonds, you probably should move on to another streetcorner. NL Cy Young
Ben Sheets' use of the well-placed fastball is nothing short of inspiring, and this roster of five is a heck of a lot better than its American League counterpart. Jason Schmidt is a force of nature when he's on, and has enough to battle to a win when he doesn't. Yes, he's helped by SBC Park, but it hasn't mattered much on most days, when his fastball is just a rumor to opposing hitters. Carlos Zambrano's more of a "Last Cub Standing" in that rotation. Soon enough, Dusty'll be back to working on the ligaments of those surrounding him. Remember, if you're up 8-1 after seven, and Wood's thrown 109 pitches, it's a great opportunity for him to get back out there, strike out a few more guys, and really learn to stretch it out during a game. It's Dusty's world. And Dr. James Andrews is just livin' in it. NL ROY
Otsuka's penchant to make hitters stop their motion midswing is amazing. You have expect to hear a laugh track and hear a Bob Saget voiceover. It's not often you get to see Major League Hitters™ finish their swings by planting their front foot. Madson's combination of groundballs and strikeouts is a potent one, and he's not been overused. If he can keep up his performance, he may be on the Johan Santana career path. Greene's more of a default vote at this point; he's played well, but hasn't knocked anyone over with his performance, and needs to improve on at least one facet of his game if he wants to meet the lofty (and probably unfair) expectations placed upon him out of college. NL MVP
Not very exciting. I didn't see anyone down the offensive side that's so valuable with the glove that I'd have to include them. I wanted to give a slot to J.D. Drew, because I always like to see guys who've struggled with expectations and injuries get recognition, and La Russa's genius-aspiring hijinks to go south on him. AL MVP
It's strange not to write "Alex Rodriguez" in the top spot. Alex/Barry, every year, I might as well have included their names in the templates. While some hoped Alex would somehow manage to hit even better relieved of shortstop duties, the opposite's been true. This opens the door for all kinds of crazy players to jump into consideration: Michael Young, the man who took over for Alex at shortstop in Texas, hasn't hit as well as Alex did in Texas, the difference mostly in the power--which is what Alex is partly missing, oddly. Still, a .335/.376/.508 line at short is sweet in any park. While the Freddy Garcia for Jeremy Reed/Miguel Olivo trade won Mariners general manager Bill Bavasi a lot of praise, it should also be noted that Bavasi attempted to trade Carlos Guillen (.329/.394/.560) to the Indians for Omar Vizquel (.297/.363/.392). After that failed, he signed Rich Aurilia (.246/.310/.345) and traded Guillen for Ramon Santiago (.143/.280/.190 in limited use). AL ROY
I like that Greinke kid, but he hasn't done enough this year to move himself up the list. Mauer should be here by the end of the year, but if being good sometimes and injured the rest got you hardware, Nick Johnson would have a shelf full of trophies. NL ROY
I can't bring myself to put Kazuo Matsui on here. His swing is just so ugly I can't in good conscience type his name. I was tempted to put him in there to add one more Japanese player, since I enjoy honking the noses of people who argue, with their reason-of-the-week on why they're not rookies, that they should be excluded from consideration. AL Cy Young
Mulder's got the better defense, and Schilling's K rate is ridiculous, so I gave him the nod. Why does everyone forget about Freddy Garcia? Sure, he doesn't have the wins because he spent the beginning of this season on a punchless team that also featured the defensive stylings of Randy Winn in center ("Ball hit to center, Randy Wiiiiinnnnn.... can't get to it, and that will go for a double") and Raul Ibanez in left, and it's easy to point to his home-road splits as evidence he was helped by Safeco Field, but his starts there were that good. NL Cy Young
Glavine's not doing a lot of whining about Questec this year, is he? No, of course not, because it's not as if there's anything for him to blame Questec for. And yet, if the technology is flawed, shouldn't last season's crusade against the system continued unabated? Sheets versus Schmidt isn't that close to me: Sheets' walk rate is better, the strikeout rate is way better, and Schmidt's been lucky on his hits. Randy Johnson over Carlos Zambrano in the last spot would seem nice, as a sentimental gimmie, but to what end? Zambrano's been better so far, even if it's not a huge gap. NL MVP
Duh. As others have stated, Rolen's put together a very nice first half for a mortal--combining average, power, plate-discipline, and some stellar work with the glove. Abreu just keeps adding to his case as Most Underrated Player in the game; he's Bernie Williams with more walks and half the notoriety. J.D. Drew's been healthy, finally. And Todd Helton just keeps on truckin'. As Dayn mentioned in his ballot, the backlash against Colorado hitters can go a bit far in some cases, and I think Helton's fallen victim to that, especially over the past few years. Sure, applying Park Factors to individuals can be tricky business, but we're talking about a hitter with a translated career line of .304/.397/.557 coming into 2004. Let's give credit where it's due: .349/.467/.623, while hitting .324/.427/.595 on the road? I'll take two, please. AL MVP
What can you say? Pudge gets the bump over Vlad thanks to positional scarcity and defense, and Manny continues his quest as the best hitter of his generation never to be the best in the league. (It's true; check the under-exposed historical VORP reports.) Two Red Sox, two Tigers, and no one from a first place team? Welcome to CrazyWorld. NL Cy Young
I'll probably catch flak for choosing Sheets, but the way I see it, he splits the difference between his top contenders, grabbing the best of both worlds. Johnson has been as effective over more innings, while posting similar peripherals, but sports a significantly lower BABIP (implying some luck). Clemens has been slightly more effective with a higher BABIP (implying less luck), but has worse peripherals and has tossed fewer innings. Sheets, meanwhile, falls somewhere in between, with outstanding numbers across the board. This was the toughest ballot to fill out. Livan Hernandez rounds out the list with yet another ligament-defying performance in Montreal. Has there been a better pitcher in the National League over the past 1.5 years? (OK, there's Jason Schmidt, but who else?) AL Cy Young
Schilling's clearly the class of the group, in my mind, given his combination of strong peripherals and weak defensive support. Tim Hudson continues to get the job done with smoke, mirrors, and gravity. Yes, the strikeout rate's low, but there are few pitchers better at keeping the ball down (3.5 GB/FB) and in the park (0.2 HR/9), and that has a ton of value. On the opposite end of the spectrum, of course, is Johan Santana (1.2 GB/FB, 1.3 HR/9), who spent most of April and May feeding his gopher, but has done this over his past seven starts: IP H R BB SO ------------------- 8 2 2 2 11 9 3 0 2 13 8 3 2 2 12 7 4 1 0 10 8 4 2 2 12 8 3 2 0 7 7 6 1 0 10 ------------------- 55 25 10 8 75Complete and utter domination. There's simply no other way to put it. K-Rod gets the Honorary Reliever spot on the ballot thanks to a Gagnesque strikeout rate and just five extra-base hits allowed in 44.1 innings of work. NL ROY
(Yawn.) Otsuka's been great. Madson's been good. And if people are going to give Joe Mauer down-ballot votes, then I'm going to give one to Jason Bay, who's accumulated more PAs than Mauer, and is positively hitting the snot out of the ball (.301/.365/.618). AL ROY
Crosby's lived to up expectations, hitting roughly .270/.350/.490 since April, and playing every day. Greinke's been the Royals' best starter, which might sound like damning with faint praise ("You're twice as funny as Chris Kattan!"), but isn't. Meanwhile, where's the love for Kevin Gregg? Dude's been awesome, and with nary a support from his defense (.333 BABIP). AL MVP
He's the third-best hitter in the league and he catches. By improving even as he moves past 1,600 games caught, Ivan Rodriguez has established a unique career path for a catcher. He might even add a second AL MVP award to his mantle. This is a fluid group; two through four could really be in any order, depending on how you evaluate defense and run environment. Alex Rodriguez gets the #5 slot based on what appears to be considerable defensive value in his first season as a third baseman. You could put Miguel Tejada or Michael Young there-or Curt Schilling or Mark Mulder-and I wouldn't argue. Two Tigers in the top three of an MVP ballot. That's just weird. AL Cy Young
Curt Schilling is doing it himself moreso than Mark Mulder is, getting more strikeouts and pitching in front of an inferior defense. The two A's are comfortable, safe picks, while Brad Radke is just a ton of fun to watch this year, throwing strikes with metronomic regularity. Mariano Rivera represents the group of relievers, including teammate Tom Gordon, having outstanding years in the AL. AL ROY
Lew Ford isn't a rookie. Lew Ford isn't a rookie. Lew Ford isn't a rookie. Bobby Crosby is, and he has played very well after a rocky start. After him, you can throw everyone else in a pile. Daniel Cabrera has the numbers to deserve the #2 slot, although I seriously doubt he end up on many ballots at the end of the year. Shingo Takatsu gets bonus points for enabling the White Sox to trade Billy Koch. NL MVP
Barry Bonds gets intentionally walked in more than 20% of his plate apperances. I'll happily concede that his OBP and EqA and VORP and what have you are inflated by low-leverage walks. I also don't care. One time in five, the opposition manager doesn't even try to get him out. That's dominance the likes of which virtually no one alive has seen, and which we may never see again. It's also the MVP. Scott Rolen is the MVP of the mortals, mixing a career offensive year with his usual plus defense. Bobby Abreu was my pre-season pick for MVP, so I'll go with him ahead of his teammate. There are any number of good candidates for the last slot; Drew is a pure numbers play. There are virtually no up-the-middle players having big years in the NL. The best catcher, Johnny Estrada, has a VORP of just 26.4; Jack Wilson, Mark Loretta and Jim Edmonds lead at shortstop, second base and center field. All might be viable down-ballot candidates, but they can't crack this group. NL Cy Young
Various metrics make a mess of this list, so consider the above to be fluid, and possibly insulting to Carlos Zambrano. Ben Sheets is really getting overlooked, as he's having a Maddux '92 season, a breakthrough to a level of performance he's going to sustain for a while. I really wanted to vote for Dan Kolb and his .000 isolated power allowed. NL ROY
What a boring group. Madson's league-leading APR doesn't tell the whole story. It seems like he pitches every time a Phillies game is in doubt, and he pitches damn well. With more than 50 innings under his belt, he could well be forgotten by September. The two shortstops have been serviceable; that's OK for Greene, disappointing for Matsui. AL MVP
Up until recently I would have had Guillen ahead of his teammate, but Pudge has been putting the spurs to it of late. I am not thoroughly convinced that Guerrero has been better than Ramirez, but he has been an island of productivity in the midst of under- and non-achievement. Troy Glaus checked out early, Tim Salmon and Garret Anderson have been hurting, David Eckstein and Darin Erstad couldn't set a table if Emily Post herself showed them how. NL MVP
You could take Bonds' season, split it among two guys and still almost have two viable MVP candidates. Abreu is playing out of his mind right now. Maybe he'll actually surpass his career total of MVP points this year (18). AL Cy Young
Isn't it kind of neat to have three starting pitcher teammates taking turns having the best season among themselves? NL Cy Young
Nobody is lapping the field at this point so I thought I'd go with the guy with the 125:18 K:BB ratio. I think Johnson is going to be at the top in the end, though. AL ROY
I had a hard time giving a vote to Daniel Cabrera with that more-walks-than-Ks thing of his. Kevin Gregg of the Angels has a great K:BB ratio but I just couldn't squeeze him in. Greinke's trial by fire is much more impressive than Jeremy Bonderman's of a year ago under similar circumstances of relative deprivation. I couldn't vote for Joe Mauer at this point because he hasn't played a lot, but I think he is the odds-on favorite to take the award at season's end. NL ROY
I have no problem with voting for a multi-year veteran Japanese import for Rookie of the Year, but, to me, they really need to smoke the field and Matsui is not doing that by any stretch of the imagination. It may turn out that he will in the second half, but he sure hasn't to this point. Madson is fun to watch. AL MVP
I should get a float in next year's Puerto Rico Day parade for this ballot. Pudge is doing an encore to last season's legend-making. Any catcher fighting for a batting title should get double credit. I'd love to see Trammell protect him by giving him some DH time, using Brandon "Pod 2004" Inge at catcher. Alex Rodriguez settled in fine in New York, plus he gets credit for inspiring Derek Jeter. Ramirez and Guerrero just keep doing what they do, but Guillen is the real surprise. Dombrowski and crew aren't getting enough credit. NL MVP
I've been touting Scott Rolen for NL MVP, but I always forget to leave off the qualifier of "MVP, Human Category." Bonds is unreal. I don't care if he's injecting the blood of virgins into himself, it's still unreal. Rolen is having a great season, making some question who the best player on this team is. Pujols doesn't make my top five somehow and Todd Helton probably should. It says something that Thome and Abreu make the list and Philly's still not running away with a weak division. AL Cy Young
Guess that hip is okay. Mulder's been lights out, just edging out Schilling on my ballot. Sabathia's becoming what everyone expected--if his arm holds together. Hudson's got to figure out that oblique or he might follow the career path of Jeremy Affeldt rather than Catfish Hunter. Rogers should be fine as long as he doesn't have to pitch in any big games. There may not be clutch, but I'm convinced there's choke. NL Cy Young
I'll give Schmidt the slight nod, but I could have flipped a coin among the top three. Still, in the writer's vote, this is Clemens' to lose. Glavine might get comeback player as an apology, but so what? When Scott Boras told me last year on BPR that Zambrano was the best pitcher on the Cubs staff, I laughed. Ummm, sorry, Scott. Carl Pavano would get more consideration from me if he hadn't dumped Alyssa, while Al Leiter should be getting more credit for pitching with half a shoulder. AL ROY
I want so bad to write "Joe Mauer" but he's been in UTK more than any other BP column this year. He's going to hit and he's going to be at the top of this list at the end of the year. Takatsu's been interesting and Greinke should keep dazzling, but neither makes the list. Crosby could get more notice than the rest with a pennant chase, but Mauer and Greinke are the ones we'll be writing about in BP2010. Lew Ford, however, has earned the top slot, while Youkilis has proved he's more than a god--he's a ballplayer. NL ROY
How many of us wrote in "Kazuo Matsui" in the pre-season ballots? With as much work as Clay put in re-adjusting numbers, we still haven't figured out the cultural adjustment. Perhaps we should re-visit just how special Ichiro or Nomo was in their first seasons. Given enough sample size, I wouldn't be surprised to see the success rate for Japanese rookies be roughly that of what we see for players coming out of Triple-A. I only hope the Pads call up one more rookie--Tag Bozied? Brad Baker?--so they can sweep. It's a weak crop and I expect it might be someone who hasn't set foot on a field yet who could win. AL MVP
For the first time since I hit puberty, there's a Detroit Tiger who is a legitimate MVP candidate and you think I'm not going to vote for him? Are you kidding me? There's an old cliche about the player--say Scott Brosius or Chuck Knoblauch or someone--who is so underrated that he becomes overrated. Well, I think I-Rod might have been overrated enough for so long that he's now become underrated; if he puts together another couple of solid seasons while Piazza moves to 1B, the guy will have a pretty good claim on being the best catcher ever. The numbers two-through-four selections seem straightforward to me. Number five should probably be Hank Blalock or Melvin Mora, but Thomas is having (another) fine season, and gets dissed enough in the mainstream media that I think he deserves the recognition. AL Cy Young
A weakish crop, but Schilling bests the Pair of A(ce)s in all the categories that I care about, so I give him the nod. It has also become my belief that, while statheads are generally correct in their distaste in the attention given to closers, they probably underrate the three or four guy in the league at any given time who performs at a truly dominating level, hence the nod to Rivera. C.C. Sabathia is way cooler than Brad Radke, and gets extra credit for his selfless sacrifice of his left arm in pursuit of a glorious third place finish for the Cuyahoga Valley Indigenous Peoples. AL ROY
I have something of a bias when it comes to Rookie of the Year selections, which is to lean toward selecting the guy whom I think is going to have the greater career. I was going to use that as an excuse to justify picking Zach Grienke over Crosby. The thing is, all things considered, I'm not sure that I'd trade Crosby for Grienke at this point. I don't think Billy Beane would, either. And Crosby has clearly had the better season up to this point. PECOTA projected Takatsu to have an ERA around 10.00 or so my apologies to Mr. Zero, who would be more cool if his nickname were Mr. Sparkle. By the way, I have a Mr. Sparkle T-shirt. NL MVP
I realize that my ballot is quickly devolving into an exercise in subjectivity, but Scott Rolen is another guy whom I've always felt doesn't get the recognition that he deserves, and I'm thrilled to see that he's having a great year. I also think that Rolen lapped Andruw Jones as the best defensive player in the league after Andruw ate one too many Chik-fil-As last June or so. After Rolen (and way after Bonds), there are a heap of qualified candidates who are not all that differentiable, but I can't conceive of not having Albert Pujols somewhere on this ballot. NL Cy Young
Man, what a wealth of riches. I decided to be somewhat scientific about this one, ranking the leading candidates in three categories--VORP, SNWL, K/BB ratio--and seeing how they came out:
SNWL VORP K/BB Average
Schmidt 3 2 3 2.67
Johnson 1 6 2 3.00
Clemens 2 4 4 3.33
Sheets 6 3 1 3.33
Glavine 4 1 6 3.67
Zambrano 5 5 5 5.00
I gave Sheets the nod over Clemens because he's coming on
stronger and I think is more likely to finish the year that
way. Also, I replaced Glavine with Zambrano because
succeeding as a groundball pitcher when your middle infield
for most of the year has been Todd Walker and Ramon Martinez
is pretty damned impressive. The fact that Carlos Zambrano
is my favorite baseball player right now has nothing
whatsoever to do with it. Just a coincidence.
NL ROY
Boring. None of these guys are going to be stars. When is David Wright going to get called up? Is Wily Mo Pena eligible? AL MVP
Guillen's manning shortstop and hitting .340/.413/.623 on the road, and he's faced the toughest collection of pitchers of any serious MVP contender. I think Manny will top this list by season's end, but right now he lags Pudge in my mind because of positional scarcity and park adjustments. Sorry, but I don't see a compelling case for A-Rod being in the top five as things stand now. Blalock's been the best third baseman in the AL, and he's not on my list. NL MVP
Honestly, I'm weary of Bonds. It has nothing to do with his personality foibles or Skip Bayless-fueled rumors of his eating live howler monkeys for maximum hypothalamic hormone intake; I couldn't give a whit about any of that. Rather, I'm tired of his persistent refusal to play the game the other kids are playing. A .622 OBP? Stop it. Seriously. Enough. Rolen-excellent glove, success at every phase of the offensive game. Good thing the Phillies divested themselves of his nefarious influence. Abreu's closing fast in the non-Bonds division. Another fine Helton offering obscured by blanket application of the Coors discount. Drew gets the nod over Thome because of defensive value and the fact that he's the only Brave that's been healthy and hitting all year. AL Cy Young
First, a dig at Tim Hudson: no pitcher with a 4.3 K/9 is going to make it on my ballot. I liken the Cy Young to the MVP in this sense-I'm not going to penalize a player for bad luck and incompetent teammates. The extension of this to pitcher's terms is what happens to the balls he allows in play. I'm not a DIPS absolutist by any means, but I do place more emphasis on a pitcher's "three true outcomes." That's why Schilling and his 8.2 K/9 and 5.13 K/BB gets the narrow edge over Radke and his nine freaking unintentional walks on the season. As for Santana, he leads the AL in strikeouts and has a 4.31 K/BB ratio. He needs to cut down on the homers, but he's done everything else quite well. Pedro hasn't been Pedro, but he's still been one of the best. I could make a case for Vazquez ahead of Mulder, but one can only be so edgy, right? NL Cy Young
Sheets, and it's not particularly close in my mind. Johnson may well be tops in the end, but right now he's number two. Oswalt has 4.59 K/BB ratio and is keeping the ball in park despite pitching half his games at the Juice Box. The ERA may be high, but so is that .330 BABIP. Carpenter has a K/BB of better than 4.0, and he's been the glue of the rotation for the best team in the NL. And I'm a homer. AL ROY
How impressive would Crosby, as a rookie shortstop, have looked in the pre-trinity years? Tejada in 2003: .278/.336/..472. Crosby in 2004: .273/.331/.468. Mauer will probably top this list by season's end, but he just hasn't played enough at this writing. Greinke ... K/BB: 3.17, Age: 20. NL ROY
Greene has somewhat middling numbers, but he's played excellent defense at a premium position, and Petco has been a fairly brutal park for hitters thus far. Madson has been excellent in mostly high-leverage situations. Matsui plays shortstop and is a highly-paid Met. AL MVP
Comments: Carlos Guillen could easily be in Pudge's spot here too, but we'll go with the player with the longer track record. A-Rod has come back strong after a slow start, and has played Gold Glove defense at a new position to boot; he may very well top this list by year's end. For now it's Manny over Vlad, as Ramirez finally gets his due as the best hitter in the league and a huge reason the Red Sox are still within shouting distance of the Wild Card, given the team's slew of injuries. Blalock will be an MVP candidate for the next 10 years or so. AL Cy Young
Comments: Schilling and Mulder look dead even on the surface. But Mulder works in a better pitcher's park, while Schilling has been the victim of bad defense, with a .310 average allowed on balls in play to Mulder's .271 (through 7/8). Hudson is a close third, as the A's staff is now headed by two aces instead of three. Brad Radke and Kenny Rogers have been huge pleasant surprises, while Pedro Martinez could be in the mix by season's end, health permitting. AL ROY
Comments: Miguel who? While Scott Hatteberg for Jason Giambi was a huge downgrade for Oakland's offense, Crosby's hit for power right out of the gate and shows a decent glove for a big man at short. He could catch Tejada's production in a couple years' time. The next-best candidates aren't candidates at all, but rather players such as Lew Ford and Victor Martinez, who just missed the cut to preserve rookie eligibility. The final winner may be a player with just a few games under his belt to date. Greinke, who's been the Royals' ace from the moment he was called up in mid-May, slides into second place here. Joe Mauer's killing the ball after missing a big chunk of the season due to injuries, but lacks the playing time to make the top three. Duchscherer, Jason Frasor and Kevin Gregg are all having huge years carrying heavy burdens out of their team's bullpens, but we'll give the slight nod to Duchscherer for being the rock in a struggling A's pen. NL MVP
Comments: In a non-Bonds world, this would be one of the most compelling MVP races in recent memory. Rolen has put it all together at the plate this year to go with his Gold Glove at a premium position. Abreu's another slow starter who's now wreaking havoc on the league; had he not landed the last spot on the All-Star team, it would have ranked among the worst ommissions of all-time. Drew and Thome is a toss-up, but we'll take Drew in a tie-break, as his baserunning, defense and less favorable hitting environment are enough to nudge him past Thome's raw offensive numbers. Lately BP authors have taken to running internal pools betting on Bonds' walks, in increments of 100. His ratio of smashing the stuffing out of the ball to swings taken is ridiculous. NL Cy Young
Comments: Clemens comes up just a hair short, as Johnson's higher innings count, even accounting for the one-start difference between he and Johnson, gives the Unit the slight edge. Johnson, Schmidt and Tom Glavine all sport outrageously low BABIP numbers, knocking them all down a notch. Schmidt and Glavine also get the advantage of great pitcher's parks, which also costs them a bit here. Let's not take too much away from Tom Terrific, though--his amazing comeback season may have clinched his ticket to the Hall of Fame. Al Leiter has also benefited from Shea and Mike Cameron's wizardry (.197 BABIP!) to put up gaudy numbers, but just misses the cut. Ben Sheets has put it all together to become of the best and most entertaining pitchers in the game. He edges out Carlos Zambrano, who has helped carry the Cubs staff with Wood and Prior missing significant time. NL ROY
Comments: After starting the year looking much like the '03 version of Yankee namesake Hideki--chopping the ball into the ground and often swinging weakly--KazMat has finally started hitting the ball with authority. He was already a big part of the Mets' great defense this season, and should be a lock to win the award if he keeps hitting. Greene has been steady if unspectacular, which suits the Padres just fine as they look to a bright future at short. Madson gets the nod over fellow rookie relief aces Akinori Otsuka (slowing down lately) and Chad Cordero (solid, but hasn't logged the huge innings that Madson has). NL MVP
But since the rules don't allow that, I'll reluctantly change 2-5 to be Scott Rolen, Bob Abreu, J.D. Drew, and Adrian Beltre. What Bonds is doing to the NL is just sick, putting up numbers that look he's playing in a slow-pitch softball league with a microwaved ball and a titanium double-wall bat. His translation for 2004, extending the season to 162 games, shows 235 walks and 36 strikeouts--with just 232 total outs. In any normal league, in the American League for instance, Scott Rolen would be the MVP. Abreu, Drew, Beltre--among the league leaders in hitting and leading their teams to contention for their respective divisions gets them their tips o' the old cap. NL Cy Young
Helping your team to a title: I only consider that for the MVP voting. Cy Young goes to the best pitchers as I see them, regardless of whether he's helping his team get anywhere. So Randy Johnson gets my nod, as the ageless wonder continues to do more than any other pitcher to tear up the NL. Jason Schmidt is certainly close, and if I credited contender status he'd probably move ahead of Randy. Sheets is a stud, and is making me regret signing him to a two-year deal (ending last season) instead of a three-year deal in my NL fantasy league. Clemens has to be in there, which leaves the fifth spot to be between Zambrano, Glavine, Clement, and maybe Armando Benitez. I went with Zambrano, on the basis of record as much as anything else--they are close enough together in my mind that any little thing, even one I don't particularly like to consider, puts him over the top. NL ROY
I really, really liked Madson coming into this season, and he's done nothing to disappoint me. I really, really liked what Otsuka had done in Japan the last few years, and he's done nothing to disappoint me. I liked what Matsui had done in 2002, but so far 2004 looks more like his just-OK 2001 and 2003 seasons. Some may call it a disappointment, and he certainly has shown all-world credentials, but I think he's done a little more than Khalil Greene to this point in the season and so gets my third spot. There is certainly room for someone, like Greene or Jason Bay, to come on in the second half and take the title. AL MVP
I don't think he will sustain it, but through yesterday I think Guillen has been the best player in the American League. I never thought I would ever write that. Interesting that all five of the players on my list are new to their teams this year...I'd say they've handled their transitions well. AL Cy Young
Schilling and Mulder look to be well ahead of everybody else; they were the easy picks. Rogers has been terriffic, a direct consequence of my choosing him for my HACKING MASS squad. Yeah, him and Tom Glavine. Dear God, what has gotten into those two? Anyway, I think Pedro Martinez and Javier Vazquez will push their way into the list by the end of September, but I decided to recognize a couple of relivers who have been lights out so far this year. AL ROY
No rookie has been dominant this year, but Crosby has had the most respectable year so far. I'm not sure that he'll keep the lead, though, since Takatsu and Mauer have been coming on strong--frankly, I can't figure out how Takatsu is doing it. Zach Greinke has been one inning a game away from being a dominant starter, and I could easily see him vaulting over everybody here. AL MVP
My ballot is no doubt a bit predictable, what with the two Tiggers, and Vladi finally playing everyday away from the frigid tyranny of baseball's enserfed Team 30. As for Jorge Posada, Jeter might be the straw, A-Rod the pricey vodka, and the other guys can fight over who's an onion or an olive or a mixer, but it's Posada who's the glass, the thing that's always there. It seems impossible to call a Yankee underrated, but that he is. Finally, Blalock's the easily-chosen offensive machine and token Ranger to blame for their place in the standings. AL Cy Young
This is a pretty stratified field, in that Schilling's the easy obvious #1, and Mulder the easy obvious #2. From there, things get interesting. Hudson got hurt, so I've taken him down a couple of pegs, placing him behind the veteran anchors of the rotations of two contenders. Radke and Rogers have the been the inning eaters, the quality pitchers, and the bona fide staff aces of two teams spending lots of money on other starters; they're the ones delivering, and then some. I don't expect them to rank ahead of Hudson by season's end. Heck, I don't expect to finish ahead of Pedro. But for a half-season snapshot, they deserve the acknowledgment. AL ROY
It's a weak field, and Crosby's the lone rookie regular playing regularly and well, so it's sort of a default. That undersells his value, of course, but until we see where he winds up between the peaks and valleys of his streaky hitting, it's hard to peg how enthusiastic we should be. Joe Mauer and Zack Greinke will be back on the ballot by season's end, but I need to see more before just taking their places for granted. So, until then, Takatsu and Frasor get tabbed for the key roles each has fulfilled in their team's pens, with an honorable mention for Anaheim's Kevin Gregg. NL MVP
I have to admit, there's a bit of favoritism in play here, because Thome's just one of those guys I love to watch, and as a matter of choice, I like blaming him for good news in Philly more than Abreu. It's an entirely idiosyncratic choice, but the 2-4 slots are basically a good gaggle, easily jumbled to suit. I'm giving Lowell a token mention because of his superb season, perhaps because it's this sort of hitting that has the Marlins contending, not the basepath skitterings that seem to fascinate some people so. That said, he probably won't rate this high on my season-end ballot, but there isn't a lot to chose from among J.D. Drew, Lance Berkman, and Albert Pujols yet, and we only have five slots. NL Cy Young
Bad ballpark, bad defense, and the Rocket still showed the geezer circuit how it's done? I'm impressed. Some might wonder what I'm smoking to rate Zambrano this high, but Support-Neutral numbers put him in the top five in the league, and he's the power groundball guy who, in Alex Gonzalez's absence, has had to work with a double-play combo of two indifferent second basemen. I've left off the two qualified Mets, Glavine and Leiter, after giving it a lot of thought, Leiter's missed a bit too much time, and Glavine hasn't pitched better than any of the five guys I've got on my ballot. I suppose Sheets gets cookies for his big day, but he's also been amazing all along. As others will no doubt point out, it's a tough field to pick, but an interesting one. NL ROY
Bay's a rookie, and given my choice between his hitting, and the two shortstops (Greene and Kaz Matsui) and the two top rookie relievers (Madson and Akinori Otsuka), you might think I was a wacky nativist or something, given my choices. However, I'm being pragmatic. Offensively, the differences between Greene and Matsui are pretty modest, Greene's the better defender, and he's hitting in a park so roomy the aircraft carriers are in play. Madson has been the best reliever in the National League, pitching for a team that has desperately needed the innings he's given them in a middle relief role; Otsuka has been fine, but again, he's been a lot less critical to the Padres, and again, he's got that big ballpark to help him. So I'm happy with Bay, because he's the hitter with a future who has already given the Pirates a healthy taste of what's to come, and Madson and Greene are the better pair within the two positions to pick the league's top rookies from. Either that, or I'm a closeted Buchananite, but I sort of doubt that. AL MVP
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AL Cy Young
NL Cy Young
AL ROY
NL ROY
NL MVP
Yet another "record" Bonds can shoot for: fewest ABs by an MVP. Mickey Mantle holds the mark (pitchers and strike years excepted) with 377 in his injury-riddled 1962 season. Bonds is on pace to have just 345 this year. AL MVP
Two of the three best players in the AL this year were recently dumped by the Rangers, yet Texas is still first in a competitive division. Go figure. NL Cy Young
This is going to be fun. Two giants in the history the game -- both of them over 40 -- going head-to-head down the stretch for the title of best pitcher in the NL. And that's not even considering that another aging great, Glavine, has served notice that he's not done either. Here's hoping that Johnson doesn't get traded to the AL, just so we can see what looks like an amazing Cy Young race. AL Cy Young
The AL has been short of great pitching performances this year, but Schilling is the clear stand-out among a weak field. The Oakland "Big Three, er, Two" is as dominant as ever, provided you don't dwell too much on that missing third member. To be fair, Rich Harden is showing some signs that he'll be ready to make it a trio again before too long. NL ROY
The NL rookie award is a battle between shortstops. Greene's hitting numbers, especially his walk numbers, need to be taken with a grain of salt because he's hit eighth most of the year. But he still gets the nod over Matsui because of his solid defensive work. AL ROY
It's a close call between Mauer and Bobby Crosby among AL rookie position players. Especially for Rookie of the Year, and especially for the mid-season article, I break ties in favor of the player who's performing at a very high level (Mauer) over the good player who's shown up for work every day (Crosby). If Mauer's and Crosby's current stats are doubled at the end of the year, I'll probably reverse my ordering of them. Daniel Cabrera isn't exactly a household name, but he's a promising young arm and easily the majors' best rookie starting pitcher so far this season. A special thanks goes out to interns Jason Karegeannes and Sean Passanisi for their help compiling the data. You guys rock.
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