October 17, 2016

Playoff Prospectus

PECOTA Odds and ALCS Game 3 Preview

by Jeff Quinton

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Indians/Blue Jays

After the Indians took the first two games of the series in Cleveland, the Blue Jays turn to Opening Day starter Marcus Stroman to avoid falling behind 3-0. The Indians, meanwhile, will start Trevor Bauer as they look to continue their loss-free postseason.

Cleveland Indians (Trevor Bauer) at Toronto Blue Jays (Marcus Stroman), 8:00 PM ET

PECOTA odds of winning: 65% Blue Jays, 35% Indians

Projected Starting Lineups

Injuries/Availability

Bauer is slated to start after being pushed out a game on account of a pinky laceration endured during drone repair. Expect the Indians to roll out the same lineup as they did against righty Marco Estrada in Game 1, which means Santana setting the table, Crisp in left field, and Naquin in center field.

Devon Travis is expected to require surgery on his injured right knee and Barney will likely start at second base in his place. In Game 2, Barney hit in the nine spot, while Carrera started in the leadoff spot, so the Blue Jays could very well run that lineup back in Game 3. That said, with Carrera having yet to reach base in the series, the Blue Jays could also move Bautista to the leadoff spot and either Tulowitzki or Martin to the cleanup spot, while moving Carrera to the bottom of the order.

Outlook

While it seems odd to see the red hot Indians with a PECOTA win projection of 35 percent for Game 3, PECOTA is a) not taking momentum into account or weighing recent events as heavily as we would be, and b) does not have a very favorable projection for Bauer. When we consider that three of Cleveland’s five poststeason wins this year have come by a single run (largely because of Andrew Miller and Terry Francona) and that another win came by two runs, ignoring recent events or momentum seems slightly more prudent.

Regarding the unfavorable Bauer projection, Bauer struggled in the second half after a stellar first half as he saw his HR/FB rate regress back to his career norms. Additionally, he faces a powerful Blue Jays lineup in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre.

To go along with the Blue Jays' offense is Stroman, who was much improved in the second half after a rough start to the season. Stroman pitched well in his lone playoff start, giving the Blue Jays six innings of two-run ball in the Wild Card game against the Orioles, allowing four hits and zero walks, while striking out six.

This is all to say while the Blue Jays will likely have to face the nearly unhittable Andrew Miller for 4-6 outs, the home team will likely carry the advantage for the other 21-22 outs of Game 3, which will likely see an uptick in offensive production when compared to the first two contests.

Jeff Quinton is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @jjq01
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