October 8, 2016

Playoff Prospectus

Proof, Gargoyles, and David Price

by Matt Collins

Printer-friendly

Contact Author

When I was growing up, there were always turkey vultures flying near my house. I’m not sure why; I wasn’t in a rural area with wildlife all over the place. Lots of road kill, I guess. Anyway, my older brother once tried to convince me that they were actually gargoyles that had come to life, and they would eventually come down to get me.

In my heart of hearts, I knew that wasn’t true. Gargoyles don’t come to life and fly around, especially not in the Boston suburbs. At the same time, I couldn’t really prove him wrong, as the birds were always impossibly far away. How much information do you need before you can really declare something to be true or false? It’s a question I found myself asking a lot as the youngest of four siblings who also happened to be embarrassingly gullible.

Now much older and marginally wiser, I find myself coming right back to this question. This time it’s not about gargoyles and turkey vultures, but instead about David Price’s inexplicable lack of postseason success. Is he really negatively affected by all or some of the factors that make October baseball so much different? It was the biggest narrative surrounding his signing in Boston, and he couldn’t shake it in Cleveland. Boston’s presumed ace recorded just 10 outs on the day while allowing five runs on six hits and two walks with three strikeouts. He’s now thrown 66.2 postseason innings over his career and carries a 5.54 ERA. To say that’s disappointing would be a colossal understatement.

Really, there are two ways to look at how Game 2 unfolded for Price. The optimists among us would say that he really ran into a bunch of bad luck, and it never should have been this bad. Take the disastrous second inning, for instance. After recording a quick first out, he allowed a baserunner on a ground ball that made it through the left side. After that, Jose Ramirez tapped a ball that fell perfectly between the pitcher, shortstop, and third baseman. This was quickly followed by a weak bloop single that would score a run.

Based solely on quality of contact, it would’ve been fair to expect Price to make it out of that inning unscathed. Even his earned run in the fourth could’ve been avoided. He left two inherited runners for Matt Barnes, who immediately induced what could’ve been a double-play ball had Brock Holt not bobbled the run on third. It gave Cleveland an extra out, and sure enough they came through with an RBI single.

On the other hand, this was really the same frustrating Price that has been present for the Red Sox for much of 2016. The reality is that he put together a good regular season. He finished the year with baseball’s eighth-best DRA- and 10th-best cFIP. However, he routinely lost his command, leading to a career-high in home runs and BABIP and a whopping nine starts in which he allowed at least five runs. That second inning littered with bad luck mentioned above? Instead of settling down and getting out of the inning, he threw a waist-high fastball to Lonnie Chisenhall, who rocketed it to right field for a three-run home run.

It wasn’t just that home run, either, though that was the most obvious example. Carlos Santana’s single to lead off the inning, though on the ground, was hit relatively hard. Brandon Guyer reached on what will go down as an infield single but was actually an absolute bullet that happened to bounce right at Xander Bogaerts' feet. Once again, the moments of spotty command came at the wrong time, and Price deserves blame for that.

It’s also important that proper credit is given to the Indians’ lineup, which will likely be overshadowed due to the overwhelming narrative surrounding Price. Even if all of their contact wasn’t of the hardest variety, simply making contact off a pitcher of this caliber (25 percent swinging strike rate, 8.9 K/9) is worth noting. As we’ve seen time and time again, anything can happen when the ball is put in play. Then, there’s a guy like Chisenhall, who had exactly zero home runs off left-handed pitching this year turning on an inside fastball. That is impressive work from a lineup that has often been overlooked for all of the names on the pitching staff.

Things were much different for the Cleveland starter, as the Indians got a legitimately great performance from their ace. Corey Kluber was making his postseason debut, and immediately avoided any of the questions Price faces. Despite having a long lay off due to a minor injury—his last start was on September 26—there was no rust to be found in his game. Facing off against the regular-season’s best lineup, he was locating every pitch en route to seven shutout innings with seven strikeouts, three walks, and three hits. The potential AL Cy Young winner was never truly challenged in the game, routinely painting the black with his two-seamer and giving the Red Sox zero opportunities for hard contact.

Even more importantly for the Indians is the fact that they were not forced to go back to their two-headed monster in the bullpen. After using Andrew Miller and Cody Allen for 40 pitches each in Game 1, manager Terry Francona desperately wanted to avoid using them in this contest. He certainly would have had it became necessary—and Miller did warm up when the Red Sox threatened in the eighth—but keeping them fresh for the trip to Fenway could loom large. This is especially true with Josh Tomlin and his homer issues taking the mound for the Tribe in Game 3. One would be totally within their rights to expect that to be a situation in which the Red Sox can finally see their bats come alive.

At the end of the day, Game 2 will be defined by the performances of each team’s respective ace. Boston’s prize of the winter was beaten by bad luck that was exacerbated by poor execution at the worst possible timing, with plenty of credit going to an underrated Cleveland lineup. Cleveland’s ace put together a dominant performance against a potent lineup, earning every bit of praise he’ll earn over the next two days and giving his team a chance to complete the sweep on the road Sunday.

We still don’t have enough evidence to tell us that the theories about Price’s inability to perform in the postseason are true, just as I never gathered enough proof to completely disprove my brother’s gargoyle tales. One thing we certainly received enough proof to confirm, though: Corey Kluber is a bad, bad man.

Matt Collins is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MattRyCollins
Click here to see Matt's other articles. You can contact Matt by clicking here