September 12, 2016

The Buyer's Guide

Deep Minor-League Grabs

by J.P. Breen

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With the season drawing to a close, it’s not too helpful to place buy/sell tags on big leaguers at this point. The trade deadline has passed and, at least in most leagues, the amount of movement in the standings will be minimal. Sure, it’s worth scouring the waiver wire for a late-season gem. For dynasty league owners, though, the final few weeks serve as an underutilized opportunity to snap up a prospect keeper.

Below, I offer a sextet of names to consider over the next couple of waiver periods. I’ve broken them down into three categories, as I’ve come to respect that different dynasty owners prefer various types of prospect keepers. I’ve named a couple of low-level guys who could emerge as absolute studs in two or three seasons, a couple of upper-level role players who should carve out a big-league role in the near future, and a couple of post-hype prospects who suffered through down years.

The Low-Level Hype Machine: OF Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., TOR

The illustrious bloodline has allowed him to enjoy a bit of the limelight, but the 17-year-old slugger could become a monster name in dynasty leagues—perhaps as soon as next season. He hit .271/.359/.449 with eight homers and 15 stolen bases in the Appy League. I was surprised to discover we haven’t written about him this summer, at least his player profile isn’t tagged with any articles, because he has the kinda power potential over which dynasty owners drool.

It’s difficult to ascertain whether his 12 percent walk rate portrays quality plate discipline and pitch recognition; however, the 12.7 percent strikeout rate as a 17-year-old is encouraging. I suspect we’ll learn more about that aspect of his game as the Prospect Team compiles scouting reports on hundreds of prospects this winter. For now, though, the youngster easily profiles as a potential 20-plus homer bat with some hope for a solid batting average. There’s perhaps more in the tank, if one dreams.

Of course, he’s ages away and is highly volatile as a dynasty asset. If you’re someone willing to stash a guy for several years, however, Guerrero is someone who could be a top-100 prospect by the middle of next summer.

Honorable Mention: OF Leodys Taveras, TEX

The Useful, Yet Uninspiring Guy: 3B Yandy Diaz, CLE

I’ve struggled with my valuation of Diaz. He burst onto the scene in deeper dynasty formats, if that’s even a thing one can do, last year when he hit .315/.412/.408 in 564 PA in Double-A. The third baseman walked more than he struck out and seemed to be a darkhorse “solution” to Cleveland’s big-league problems at the position. He’s followed that up with a .325/.399/.461 slash line at Triple-A with seven homers and five stolen bases.

In that way, Diaz has seemingly proven that last year’s high batting average wasn’t a fluke. That, in combination with his glovework, should give him an opportunity to stick in the majors. The problem, though, is that the batting average is a bit empty and he doesn’t profile to offer much in terms of fantasy value. Is he anything more than a Yunel Escobar or a Martin Prado type of player?

Prado and Escobar have held down big-league jobs for years, though, and continue to offer specialized value for fantasy owners. There’s no reason that Diaz couldn’t be a nice flyer for a dynasty league owner who needs a high-average hitter who can sacrifice the negligible power production. If he can swipe double-digit bases, as he has done this year, that’s just icing on the cake.

Honorable Mention: RHP Chih-Wei Hu, TBR

Sometimes It’s Best to Forgive and Forget: 3B Jomar Reyes, BAL

It’s not popular to advocate acquiring a third-base prospect who stumbled to a .228/.271/.336 slash line in 498 PA this year, but context matters: Reyes was pushed to High-A this season at just 19 years old. The baseball community should have expected Reyes to struggle this year. Anything different would’ve been a borderline miracle for a non-superstar prospect. At the very least, it reflected the organization’s attitude toward the player.

This isn’t too different from the Jonathan Schoop path from a few seasons ago. Scouts continuously hyped the young infielder, despite the lackluster stat lines. That included his rookie season in 2014 at just 22 years old. The aggressiveness of his minor-league promotions pressed down his production. We’re finally starting to see what fantasy value Schoop really brings to the table—and we may need to wait a couple of seasons to see Reyes’ potential unlocked.

Honorable Mention: RHP Cody Ponce, MIL

J.P. Breen is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @jp_breen
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