August 31, 2016

Fantasy Freestyle

Worrying About Innings Limits

by J.P. Breen

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The September fantasy climate can be turbulent. Many owners have long stopped paying attention to their teams, September call-ups flood rosters with many more players to track, and innings limits can erode starting rotations.

Fantasy owners don’t have to be too worried about limits this year, largely due to the fact that numerous pitchers with potential limits haven’t come close to reaching them or have found themselves back in the minors. Still, there are a few pitchers to watch this month.

Michael Fulmer, RHP, Detroit Tigers

The Tigers have said since July that they plan on limiting Fulmer’s innings in the second half, and that started to come to fruition last week. The club has now pushed back two-consecutive starts for the right-hander; moreover, it’s worrisome that he’s surrendered nine runs in his last 10.2 innings. Although he’s been a revelation for fantasy owners this year, it might be time to look elsewhere in the final month of the season, given his recent ineffectiveness and the broader plan to limit his innings.

Vincent Velasquez, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies

The 2016 campaign has almost come to a close for the right-hander. Two starts ago, Velasquez indicated that he would only take the bump 3-4 times more this season. Considering he’s given up 20 runs in his last four outings—I hope we’re already sensing a trend of sorts with this—the Phillies won’t hesitate to put him on the shelf to protect him for future years. The 27.4 percent strikeout rate has been delightful. However, he’ll need to bring down his 1.36 WHIP and 4.21 ERA if he’s going to truly be a valuable fantasy starter next year. Hot tip: Velasquez is going to be one of the hottest mid-tier pitchers in your 2017, barring some freak injury between now and spring.

Jose Fernandez, RHP, Miami Marlins

This isn’t as clear-cut of a situation as the previous two. Fernandez is one of the brightest young pitchers in baseball, and an established fantasy asset, yet he’ll come up against an innings limit this September. The Marlins already skipped one of his starts in August and plan to perhaps rest him again in the upcoming weeks. The problem, of course, is that the Marlins are in the thick of the Wild Card race, so the urge to give him the ball every fifth day will be exceedingly strong.

The fireballer owns a 3.42 ERA with a 31.7 percent strikeout rate in the second half. Those numbers are down from his pre-break numbers, but fantasy owners will still want to plug Fernandez into their starting lineups every week. Just be aware that the right-hander may miss a start down the stretch; good thing he has the skill set to make up for it.

Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays have seemingly ripped the band-aid off already. They made the decision to send him to the minors for 10 days in order to save his arm for the postseason run in September. The club toyed with the idea of moving him to the bullpen to avoid overworking him, but Toronto made the calculated decision to rest him ahead of time and unleash him in the final month or so of the season.

Some have noted that Sanchez’s strikeout rate has dipped to 19.0 percent in the second half, but his run prevention has remained solid (3.08 ERA since the All-Star break), he’s thrown more strikes, and he hasn’t lost any velocity on his fastball. We’re talking about a tiny sample size, of course, but those are still positive signs for his effectiveness in September.

Julio Urias, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

The 20-year-old phenom has performed very well as of late. He’s only allowed one earned run in his past 12 innings (two starts), striking out 14 batters and walking just two. The Dodgers are trying to milk everything out of him, yet they’re planning to move him to the bullpen as soon as this upcoming weekend. He’s scheduled to start on Friday against the Padres but could be available early next week as a reliever. His ownership rate in ESPN leagues is steadily increasing, up to roughly 30 percent, but those owners should realize that Friday is his swan song for the 2016 fantasy season.

J.P. Breen is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @jp_breen
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