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August 26, 2016 Fantasy Starting Pitcher PlannerWeek 21
Welcome to the starting pitcher planner, where every Friday we’ll be taking a look at the pitchers slated for two turns in the upcoming week. The hope is that the planner can help guide lineup and FAAB decisions that need to be made over the weekend. Of course, my information isn’t perfect and I don’t have a crystal ball. Rain, injuries, and teams reshuffling between when we write and Monday’s first pitch will definitely happen. If new information comes to light after we publish, we’ll try to tackle it in the comments. Feel free to beat us to it if you have any info, and we’ll be glad to offer our opinion there if you want it. Let’s get some ground rules out the way before getting started. The pitchers will be split by league and then by category. Here are some general thoughts about the categories: Auto-Starts: You paid a big price for these guys, either with an early draft pick, high dollar auction bid, or significant haul of prospects or MLB talent. These are the top 20 or so starters in baseball, so you’re starting them anywhere, anytime. Guys can pitch their way on to or fall off of this list as the season evolves. There won’t be many notes associated with this group, unless a player has just moved up or is in imminent danger of moving down. Starts: These are the pitchers I’m recommending you give the ball to this week. Some will be obvious, though not quite auto-start excellent. Others will be lesser talents who find themselves with a pair of favorable outings that you can take advantage of. Considers: These guys will be on the fence and your league settings and position in the standings will play a big role in your decision. A pitcher in this category can be an SP2 or SP3 with a tough week of matchups. Conversely, he could be a team’s number five who happens to be lined up against a couple basement dwellers. Your particular league context carries the day here; if you are in a 10-team mixed league you probably don’t need to take the risk, but a 10-team AL-only leaguer might see it as a nice opportunity to log some quality innings from a freely available resource. Sits: These are the guys I’m staying away from this week. They will range in talent from solid to poor. With mixed leagues smaller than 16 teams my default position for all two-start pitchers who rank outside of the top 60 or so is to sit them unless the matchups dictate otherwise. Additionally, mid-rotation starters who face a couple tough draws will find themselves in this category more often than not. NATIONAL LEAGUE Steven Matz is coming back from a brief DL stint and is scheduled to start twice this coming week, one time each against the other two playoff contenders in their division. AUTO-START
Not much to say about these guys. They’re good. Start them. START
If he wasn’t making one of his starts in Colorado, I would have put Rich Hill in the Auto-Start group. Julio Teheran hasn’t been great recently, but he has two favorable matchups this week against the Padres and the Phillies. Carlos Martinez has two starts on the road in homer-friendly parks, but both lineups are fairly strikeout-prone, giving him more downside and more upside than he’d have in a normal two-start week. CONSIDER
Steven Matz and Gerrit Cole are used to being in the Start category. Steven Matz is returning from the DL after spending the minimum amout of time there resting his shoulder. He has two home games, one against the Stanton-free Marlins and one against the potentially scary Nationals. Gerrit Cole hasn’t quite been himself this year, and he’s been even further from his usual self over his last few starts. Plus, this week, one of his two starts is a road game against the juggernaut on the north side of Chicago. SIT
This might be Jake Thompson’s last start for the Phillies for a while. The only thing keeping him in contention for a rotation spot is a lack of viable alternatives. AMERICAN LEAGUE AUTO-START
I’m as surprised as you are to see these two by themselves in the auto-start category. Rick Porcello has been very good recently, already has seventeen wins thanks to the offense behind him, and has two favorable matchups this week against Tampa at home and against Oakland on the road. Trevor Bauer still has a walk rate that’s a tick or two higher than I’d like, but one of his two starts is against the hapless Twins and the other is against the Marlins, a team missing its biggest bat. START
James Paxton recently returned from two weeks on the DL due to elbow discomfort. It’ll be interesting to see if the significant velocity spike we saw from Paxton earlier this year survived his stint on the shelf. Matt Boyd has been on a bit of a roll recently, although his high home run rate makes him a blowup risk. CONSIDER
Jake Odorizzi has been performing well of late and would have been in the Start category if it wasn’t for the two brutal matchups he has this week. CC Sabathia has been great recently, racking up 26 strikeouts over his last three starts, although he did allow 11 runs over those three games thanks to a disastrous seven-run outing against the Blue Jays. SIT
Not much to say about these guys except stay away. If there was a lower category than this one, I’d put James Shields in it.
Scooter Hotz is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @wavingatyou
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I believe Darvish goes twice this week as well.
You're right, he is scheduled to go twice this coming week. The Rangers had a lot of TBDs on their schedule yesterday. I'd put Darvish in the Start category, right on the cusp of the Auto-Start category.