BP Comment Quick Links
July 30, 2016 Raising AcesIn Awe of SouthpawsWe take a short trek to the port-side of the rubber in this week’s edition of pitching notes, tackling three left-handers with different pedigrees and assorted approaches that have each been very effective this season. Let's dig into the breakdowns.
Jon Lester
The walks stand out like a blemish on an otherwise clean face for Lester, as he had surrendered 19 in 36.2 innings over last seven starts (4.7 BB/9) that preceded yesterday’s outing, this after issuing just 17 free passes over his first 85.2 frames (1.8 BB/9). He did strike out seven batters out of 12 outs against the Brewers in his previous start, but at least part of that total was due to a free-swinging Milwaukee lineup that leads the majors in batter strikeouts. Perhaps more telling was the number of strikeouts that came on fastballs that missed their targets but still got empty swings.
The velocity has held constant (according to Brooks Baseball) as has the usage patterns of Lester’s repertoire. He hasn’t thrown many sinkers over those seven starts, tossing the sink just 6.5-percent of the time compared to a 9.5-percent usage pattern in his first 13 games. The sink has also been ripped on the rare occasions that Lester has used it lately, with batters going 5-for-10 against the pitch with two doubles and a home run, so perhaps he lacked feel for the pitch, but caveats of small sample abound and it fails to explain his all-around struggles since the calendar flipped to July.
Fastball command is the most important trait that a pitcher can have, and it takes on even greater importance for a pitcher whose key secondary pitches also play off the fastball. In Lester’s case, it’s a cutter that leaves his hand on the same plane as his fastball, featuring late movement that keeps batters guessing. If Lester is able to locate the four-seam, sinker and cutter where he intends, then he can be devastating, but when his location is off it means that most of his repertoire is also compromised, as Lester throws one of the three fastball variations (cutter included) more than 82 percent of the time.
We saw the benefits of that command in yesterday’s outing, as Lester was able to hold the Mariners to two walks and four hits over six scoreless frames, including seven strikeout on the afternoon. He still threw only three sinkers, none of which invoked swings, but Lester was able to ride his fastball-cutter combination to a shutdown outing.
Cole Hamels
Hamels had struck out 11 Astros back in late May, but his last start was far more impressive. Whereas the Astros are a notoriously free-swinging bunch that leads the AL in batter strikeouts for the second year in a row, the Royals—whom Hamels faced in his past two starts—are a contact-oriented ballclub that has a below-average strikeout rate.
The changeup has defined Hamels for much of his career, and for good cause, as he has thrown the pitch on more than 25 percent of his throws as a big leaguer and el cambio has finished off far more strikeouts than any other club in his bag. However, that was not the case on Thursday, as just eight of his 123 pitches on the day were changeups and just one of his 12 strikeouts ended with it. Instead, the secondary of choice was Hamels’ curve; he threw 36 curveballs, more than any other secondary, and the breaking ball finished off six of his strikeouts.
His love for the curve is a relatively new development. Hamels hadn’t thrown more than 21 curveballs in any game until two starts ago and he had only topped 17 curves in a game once. But two starts ago, he uncorked 26 curves against the Royals, a season-high before the 36 curveballs from his last start. Both games were against Kansas City, so perhaps the curve-happy approach was by design in order to exploit a KC deficiency (in which case it worked), or maybe Hamels just has great feel for his breaker right now, so it will be very interesting if he continues to up the ante on curves in his next start.
Danny Duffy
Duffy was a starter in the past and is unlikely to see any signs of shutdown, at least not due to innings count, as he threw 145 combined innings last season and just crossed the century mark in frames for 2016. He has been much more effective this season, however, with improvements in virtually every statistical category that held firm as he transitioned from the bullpen to the rotation.
His strikeout rate has absolutely skyrocketed, from 17.4 percent last season to a rate of 27.2 percent in 2016, while his walk rate has deflated from the 9.0 percent of last season to the strong 5.4 percent of this season. He's a flyball pitcher who has given up some extra power this season, but the trade-off has been more than worth it, as his newfound domination of the strike zone has resulted in a 3.22 ERA despite 1.2 HR/9.
Duffy has a solid mix of pitches, including a slider that he will throw with a greater than 20 percent frequency against batters from each side of the plate. He typically saves the changeup for when the lefty has the platoon disadvantage, and when a left-handed hitter is at the plate he just ups his sinker frequency.
The four-seam fastball is Duffy’s greatest weapon, accounting for the biggest chunk of his strikeouts and averaging greater than 96 mph on the radar gun. The fastball velo has also shot up this season, jumping nearly 2 mph this season over either of the last two years, though his pitch-speed has been declining throughout the season and was a a season-low 95.1 mph in July, a full tick lower than any other month this season. Four-seam fastballs typically get hit harder than sinkers or secondaries, but Duffy has maintained a mere .232 batting average and .355 slug against the four-seamer this season.
Doug Thorburn is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @doug_thorburn
0 comments have been left for this article.
|