July 19, 2016

Closer Report

Week 16

by Matt Collins

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We’re coming off a three-day week in the baseball world, but there was still plenty of closer news to unwrap. As always, you can keep up with the changes in real time with the closer grid. The recent changes are highlighted in yellow. Now, on to the news.

Arodys Vizcaino Hits the Disabled List

Look, the Braves are really bad and whoever is their closer at any given moment isn’t going to carry a ton of fantasy value. Still, this injury has some ripple effects that are really interesting. To start at the most basic level, Jim Johnson’s fantasy value just increased exponentially. His overall numbers this year are far from impressive, but he’s been much better recently. Over his last 11 outings he’s pitched to a 1.06 ERA with an 11-to-4 K:BB ratio in 17 innings. None of that is to say you should rush to add him, though. Not only is the aforementioned lack of value for a Braves’ closer relevant, but he’s also likely to be traded soon. This promotion only serves to boost his value however marginally, and there’s almost no chance he’ll go to a team that needs him to close. This has many people excited about Mauricio Cabrera for the last couple months of the year, but I’d slow down on that hype train, too. He certainly is next in line if/when Johnson is traded, but Vizcaino’s injury changes things. The latter was likely to be traded before his injury, but now Atlanta will probably have to wait until the offseason to pull off a deal. So, Cabrera could get a few saves between the time when Johnson is traded and Vizcaino returns, but Vizcaino should get his job back eventually. All of that is a long way of saying a lot is happening in Atlanta, but I don’t see the end result being much of a change. Cabrera could be a solid prospective add for those in long-term leagues, though.

Will Santiago Casilla Lose His Role?

Santiago Casilla has been hanging on by a thread for what seems like forever, but he blew yet another save on Saturday. This time on a balk! Now, Bruce Bochy still isn’t wavering and is planning on keeping his closer in the ninth inning. The leash has to be considerably shorter now, though, after his latest blown save. Sergio Romo has recently returned from injury for the Giants, and has pitched well as the primary set-up man. At a time in which there is uncertainty around who will be traded and who should be added for future saves, Romo could be an interesting one. He’s still not my favorite, though, and that’s mostly because for as bad as Casilla’s recent stretch has been, the peripherals still support him being much better. The small samples that could be involved in his theoretically short leash don’t care about the peripherals, but there’s a good chance he can turn it around soon. It wouldn’t shock me if Romo was named the closer in a few weeks, but I’m still a believer in Casilla’s talent.

Time For Some Reds Talk

The Reds bullpen has sort of stabilized over the past month or so, which is bittersweet for someone who writes about bullpens on a weekly basis. Tony Cingrani did have a rough outing on Friday, but he’s only blown one save since June and has given himself a firmer grasp on this job than anyone could have predicted. With that being said, he’s been the anti-Casilla, as the peripherals do not back up his performance. The walks have been a problem for Cingrani, as they have been throughout his career. However, the strikeouts are also way down from where they’ve been in the past. Even in this productive stretch since June 1, he’s only tallied four strikeouts in 18.2 innings. There’s a good chance he’s going to implode at some point relatively soon. Ross Ohlendorf is the next man up right now, but he’s also the least interesting. The names that I think will get a look from the rebuilding Reds down the stretch are Raisel Iglesias and Michael Lorenzen. The former has been outstanding since coming back from injury as a reliever. The only thing that could hold back his fantasy value is Cincinnati wanting to keep him in a multi-inning role. Lorenzen has a similar issue as a former top prospect who started in the minors. One of these two is the best fit for the job, but if I were to bet on one to get saves in August in September it’d be Iglesias.

Quick Hits

Wade Davis came back from the disabled list, ending Kelvin Herrera’s short reign as the Royals’ closer. Herrera has been good enough this year that I’d keep him in most leagues over the prospective closers mentioned above.

Speaking of prospective closers, it’s that time of year so I should mention that my favorite right now is Ryan Dull. If he’s available, pick him up before the A’s pull the trigger on a trade or Ryan Madson pitches himself out of the ninth inning all together.

Keone Kela is back for the Rangers. I don’t think he has any fantasy impact to be had this year, but if you remember correctly I was extremely high on him coming into the year. I’m just happy he’s pitching again.

Kevin Siegrist has also come back from the disabled list and Seung-hwan Oh has been a bit shaky of late. The latter is still the best Cardinals reliever to own, but Siegrist should owned in deeper leagues as he’ll get a few save chances based on matchups.

Matt Collins is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MattRyCollins
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