June 23, 2016

Dynasty Dynamics

Six Dynasty Prospects to Stash or Flip

by Ben Carsley

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Three weeks ago I took a look at seven prospects you might want to grab in deep dynasty leagues to either trade or to build around. Time has passed, and now I have six different names for you. You may read more about the premise in the first installment here. Good day.

Anthony Banda, LHP, ARI

Turns out J.P. Breen advocated for adding Banda a few weeks ago, and now I’m here to agree. You’re seeing his name pop up more and more in BA Prospect Reports and in our minor league updates, and his stats help to explain why. The 22-year-old southpaw owns a 2.12 ERA and 25.9 K% in Double-A this season, and everything you read about his performances and his arsenal this year is positive. Banda doesn’t strike me as a player with a remarkably high ceiling, but his proximity to the big leagues, left-handedness and strong performance should make him a popular name in dynasty leagues—I know George Bissell just picked him up in #TDGX. I’ve preached to you guys about avoiding mid-rotation fantasy assets ad nauseum, so you probably already know I’m going to advise flipping Banda rather than stashing him. But if you truly need to rebuild your system or you think you might need bulk pitching help later this year or early next, you could do worse. The Verdict: FLIP

Michael Chavis, 3B, BOS

A former first-round pick of the Red Sox in 2014, Chavis has yet to truly impress as a professional. A weird 2015 season saw him flip the script on his high school scouting report by hitting for power but not for average. Chavis started out 2016 repeating Low-A Greenville and was off to a good start, but a thumb injury knocked him out for several weeks. Now the third baseman is back, and his make-or-break next few months present an interesting buy-low opportunity for fantasy owners. Chavis is hitting .326/.381/.516 in 2015 PA in Greenville this season. It’s a small sample at a level that shouldn’t be a huge challenge for a player who turns 21 in a few weeks, so I understand staying away. At the same time, dynasty league owners have a unique chance to buy a former first-rounder with significant offensive upside who still has the tools and bat speed needed to turn his career around. Are the odds with Chavis? No. But right now you can probably get him for free, stash him for six-to-eight weeks and see where the chips lie. If he flops, all you’ve cost yourself is a few weeks of a roster spot (and keep in mind you can drop him at a moment’s notice if a better prospect surfaces). If it clicks for him, you’ll probably have a top-150 prospect on your hands. The Verdict: STASH (Short Term)

Travis Demeritte, 2B, TEX

Is Demeritte too obvious a name to include here? Maybe—he jumped into the dynasty league scene after hitting 25 homers in 2014—but I’m willing to bet plenty of owners dropped him after the .241/.341/.566 line and 34.8 percent strikeout rate he posted in Single-A last year. Demeritte is still swinging and missing at Joey Gallo-esque pace, but he’s also launching more than his fair share of homers. Just 67 games into the 2016 season, Demeritte has 18 bombs, and a middle infielder with this type of power is worth taking note of even with the glaring deficiencies (demerits?) in his game. He’s doing this in the Cal League and he’s striking out in a third of his PA, so please consume several grains of salt when evaluating Demeritte. But boom-or-bust prospects are always in demand for rebuilding teams, even those who are far more likely to bust. Demeritte is almost certainly a top-150 dynasty league prospect right now because of his power numbers. Pick him up and see if someone in your league thinks this is real. The Verdict: FLIP

Teoscar Hernandez, OF, HOU

If you play in a deep enough dynasty league, odds are you won’t be Hernandez's first suitor. You could be the last, though. The 23-year-old has long tantalized with his tools and his upside. Someone in your league probably owned him after 2013, when he hit quite well in Single-A as a 20-year-old. They almost certainly owned him in 2014, after he hit .294/.376/.550 with 17 homers and 31 steals in High-A. Last year was a down year for Hernandez, though, and given the questions scouts have long raised about Hernandez’s approach and hit tool, most owners probably dropped him. While Hernandez hasn’t posted the gaudy speed/power stats we’ve come to expect from him this season, he has dramatically improved his strikeout and walk rates, cutting them to 17.2 percent and raising them to 9.2 percent, respectively. Add it all together and you have a toolsy prospect who’s clearly made an adjustment and who’s fairly close to the majors. He’s not a safe prospect, but he’s one I was happy to gobble up for free in #TDGX this week. The Verdict: STASH

Felix Jorge, RHP, MIN

Is a 1.59 ERA good? I think a 1.59 ERA is good. A fairly anonymous name heading into the season (unless you’re really, really into old Twins top-10 lists), Jorge has impressed both on the stat sheet and in scouting reports, with our own Christopher Crawford recently dropping the knowledge that Jorge is flashing three above average pitches at High-A. For me, Jorge represents a pretty classic case of a prospect you want to flip. His strikeout rate (21.6%) portends a lack of upside and he’s still decently far away from the majors, but his eye-popping stats might cause someone to see a star where a future middling asset truly resides. You’re not going to headline any packages with Jorge this season—no one’s falling for that—but someone might think he’s a valuable second or third piece. If your league rosters 150-plus prospects, he’s worth grabbing. At least until his ERA falls down to earth. The Verdict: FLIP

Chad Pinder, SS/3B, OAK

Maybe Pinder isn’t going to be very good. Most scouting reports for him tend to start with what he can’t do -- play a great shortstop, hit for big-time power, etc. In the meantime, Pinder keeps raking. The 24-year-old is hitting .276/.321/.355 in Triple-A, and he’s already notched nine homers in 281 PA. Everything scouts bring up about Pinder is valid, of course, and he doesn’t figure to ever be a fantasy star. But his minor-league production is super-impressive, he’s at Triple-A and the A’s aren’t exactly rolling with infield talent. There’s a chance he forces his way to the majors soon, and for as long as he has MI eligibility, at least, he’ll be an interesting play. You’d be justified in picking him up to sell high or in holding in the hopes that he’s a usable deep league option. The Verdict: Do As You Wish, Life Is Fleeting

Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @bencarsley
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