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June 10, 2016 Free Agent WatchWeek 11
12-TEAM MIXED LEAGUES Trevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland Indians (Available in 81% of ESPN.com leagues)
It’s hard to believe that Bauer is only 25 years old. It may have something to do with the fact that he’s served as a lightning rod among baseball analysts (and fantasy owners alike) dating back to his collegiate days with rotation mate Gerrit Cole at UCLA. Reports regarding Bauer’s dedication to studying and perfecting his craft make you wonder if he’s already forgotten more about pitching than many of us will learn in a lifetime. Yet, the surface stats remained lackluster (4.50 ERA in 64 career starts) over the past four years.
Following a brief stint as a reliever to open up the 2016 campaign, Bauer appears to be turning the proverbial corner ever since rejoining the Indians rotation in late April. In eight starts since, he owns a 3.67 ERA with a 43-to-17 K:BB ratio over 49 innings and has yet to allow more than four runs in a single outing. His control (3.3 BB/9) remains an issue, but he’s generating more ground balls (48 percent) and striking out nearly a batter per inning (8.5 K/9). A career-best 99 cFIP, a predictive pitching metric, is another positive indicator. With a matchup on the road against the struggling Angels on tap this weekend, Bauer is a prime streaming candidate and rapidly evolving into a back-end of a fantasy rotation anchor in shallow mixed leagues.
Will Harris, RP, Houston Astros (Available in 74% of ESPN.com leagues)
Glowing relief pitcher endorsements aren’t the prototypical lynchpins of the BP Free Agent Watch column, mainly because they have an entire weekly column (The Closer Report, authored by the excellent Matt Collins, I might add) dedicated to them. But also because they’re fungible fantasy assets prone to dramatic shifts in value given the relationship between their performance and job security. However, Harris, who owns a sparkling 0.33 ERA while striking out over a batter-per-inning over 27 appearances this season, is still widely available and a worthwhile free agent target. The well-traveled 31-year-old isn’t a one-time fluke. He was excellent in Houston last season, posting a 1.90 ERA, the ninth-lowest mark of any reliever with at least 50 innings of work, across 71 innings last year.
Once Astros announced they were transitioning to a committee approach over the weekend, it was only a matter of time before he got an opportunity. Houston has encountered a pair of save situations since then and each time they’ve elected to hand the ball to Harris. Even manager A.J. Hinch has implored fantasy owners to pick him up. There’s always a chance that Luke Gregerson or Ken Giles work their way back into the ninth inning, but Harris is the real deal and a worthy investment, even in shallow free agent pools. –George Bissell
James Paxton, SP, Seattle Mariners (Available in 94% of ESPN.com leagues)
In two starts since being recalled from Triple-A Tacoma earlier this month, the 27-year-old southpaw has allowed 11 runs (four earned) on 15 hits while striking out 17 batters and issuing just two walks in 9 2/3 innings. The surface stats (3.72 ERA, 1.76 WHIP) are extreme enough to scare away the casual fantasy owner, but it’s the dramatic changes in Paxton’s profile, most notably a massive uptick in average fastball velocity, that are worth taking notice of.
Per BP’s PITCHf/x Leaderboards, Paxton’s 98.66 mph average fastball velocity is the highest of any left-handed major-league starter this season by a considerable margin. In addition to the increased velocity, his four-seam is also generating more swings (and whiffs on those cuts) than in previous years, which bodes well for his strikeout totals moving forward. While he won’t sustain a preposterously high strikeout rate (15.8 K/9) all season, he did rack up 50 punchouts in 47 2/3 innings at Tacoma earlier this year. Given his lengthy injury history, it’s difficult to peg Paxton as a burgeoning fantasy ace, but the colossal strikeout totals are hard to ignore in deeper mixed leagues. He’s someone fantasy owners need to have on their radar. –George Bissell NL-ONLY LEAGUES
Ichiro Suzuki, OF, Miami Marlins (Available in 98% of ESPN.com leagues)
The 42-year-old has walked twice as many times (10) as he’s struck out (five) and is hitting .330/.387/.376 with 15 runs scored, seven RBI and six stolen bases in 42 games this season. With fewer than 30 hits to go in his quest for 3,000 major-league hits, the senior circuit’s elder statesman (who hit a career-worst .229 last year) is enjoying a remarkable renaissance campaign. The stolen bases and his perch atop the Marlins lineup have value, even if he’s not garnering everyday at-bats.
AL-ONLY LEAGUES
Chris Young, OF, Boston Red Sox (Available in 97% of ESPN.com leagues)
Originally inked to serve as Boston’s platoon option versus southpaws to complement starter Brock Holt, Young has been pressed into everyday at-bats after Holt went on the disabled list with a concussion and his subsequent replacement, Blake Swihart, suffered a serious ankle injury last week. The 32–year-old homered off Madison Bumgarner earlier this week, and is now hitting .310/.383/.619 with 11 runs scored, five homers, 12 RBI, and a pair of stolen bases this year. With no immediate threat to his newfound status as the Red Sox everyday left fielder present, AL-only fantasy owners can safely target Young as a solid source of productive plate appearances moving forward. –George Bissell
George Bissell is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @GeorgeBissell
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