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May 24, 2016 Updating the TiersThird Basemen
Welcome, to Baseball Prospectus’ first (or at least first time in a long time) in-season rankings update to our preseason positional tiers article. As we did during the preseason, players at each position will be divided into five tiers, represented by a “star” rating. In addition, unlike with the preseason “star” ratings, these lists can also be viewed as a straight ranking. Five-star players are the studs at their position. In general, they are the players who will provide first or second round draft value and will be worth $30 or more in auction formats. Four-star players are a cut below the studs at the position. They will earn more than $20 in auction formats. Three-star players are the last tier in which players are projected to provide double-digit dollar value in auctions, and two-star players are projected to earn single digits in dollar value in auctions. One-star players are the types of players who provide back end roster value. The positional tiers aren't simply a regurgitation of what has happened year-to-date but rather try to offer some insights into what we expect will happen the rest of 2016. If you are wondering why a specific player isn’t listed, please note that in many cases players in the one-star tier and players who are not ranked are interchangeable. The rankings above assume a 15-team, standard 5x5 Roto scoring format, with 23-man rosters and the following positions: C (2) 1B (1) 2B (1) 3B (1) SS (1) CI (1) MI (1) OF (5) UT (1) P (9). Position eligibility is based on either 20 games at the position last year or five games this year. Yesterday: Catcher, First Base, Second Base Wednesday, Starting Pitcher, Relief Pitcher
Machado migrates over to shortstop while the rest of this tier stays intact. All three of these players are elite, and at the moment all three are matching or coming close to matching their first round ADP. Arenado has been the best of the three thus far, but it would not surprise anyone if either Donaldson or Bryant lapped him before the conclusion of the 2016 campaign. What a time to be alive, although here I am using the phrase in earnest. Five-Star Value Pick: None Four Star Many wondered if Carpenter’s power spike last year would carry over into 2016, and thus far the answer is a resounding yes. The bad news is that it appears likely that Carpenter won’t hit much higher than .275, if he even gets to that level. However, if this is his level, a 30 home run, 90 RBI, .270 AVG hitter is something you’ll learn to live with at the hot corner. Which hitter in this tier is your “best” choice in this tier largely depends upon your team’s needs. In dynasty, I want Franco and it isn’t particularly close but in non-keeper leagues a poor start has put a damper on Franco’s present value. His .300 OBP is third to last among third base qualifiers. Frazier’s stolen base totals have dropped off considerably but the power remains prodigious and he is riding a hot streak over the last few days that has pushed up his batting average. Seager soldiers on as a boring model of 20-25 home run consistency. Like Franco, Beltre’s real life results haven’t been great but after a thumb injury hampered Beltre in 2015, the power has come back this season. Four-Star Value Pick: Maikel Franco Three Star The three-star tier jumps from four in the preseason to seven in the first in-season update. A small part of this is due to Sano, who moves over from first base (where we stashed the multitude of DH-only hitters in the offseason) to third base. On power potential alone, Sano could easily rest in the four-star tier but thus far he has been prone to the strikeout and isn’t slugging dingers at the 30-35 home run pace he did in the second half of 2015. Sano certainly isn’t a complete failure, but he is coming nowhere close to delivering on his preseason ADP. Three-Star Value Pick: Jake Lamb Welcome to the two-star tier, where we’re clearly in deep mixed league territory, and perhaps even beyond that threshold. With first base as deep as it is in mixed a few of these guys are solely for mono formats. Duffy was in the three-star tier in the preseason but his limited track record combined with a poor start makes him a cause for concern in the early going. The two-star tier is populated with a significant number of low-power options who when they’re going right fill the stat sheet everywhere else. Turner, Prado, Escobar, and Duffy are all players cut from this cloth. You’re not looking for upside with any of these players. You are looking for a full season of productive at bats that don’t hurt your batting average. Tomas and Wright are both the kind of players who could produce strong value if they can stay healthy and/or consistent. Tomas has showed flashes of the power expected from him in his rookie campaign in 2015 while Wright has faded after a strong start. Two-Star Value Pick: Trevor Plouffe One Star This tier looked bad in the preseason; it looks even worse now. I was tempted to try and cheat and put Alex Bregman here, but even in leagues that use minor league games played he doesn’t qualify at third base yet. Reynolds has performed by best by far of anyone in this group, but betting on the strikeout heavy slugger to keep hitting .328 the rest of the way is foolish.
One-Star Value Pick: Yangervis Solarte
Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MikeGianella
6 comments have been left for this article.
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Rendon's horrible, but is he really worse than Colin Moran?
Whoops, sorry, I didn't realize he was in with the 2B's