May 18, 2016

Dynasty Dynamics

Rebuilding in TGDX, Part II

by Ben Carsley

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Back in early April, I broke down what had been a busy offseason for my #TDGX team and promised to fill you in on updates as the season progressed. Seven weeks later, it seems as good a time as any to review the moves I’ve made through the season’s early days, which include a blockbuster trade and a whole lot of small, unexciting waiver wire pick-ups. Yay rebuilding!

If you want to get fully caught up on my #TDGX read the post from April, but for a general reminder, here are the league's parameters: The Dynasty Guru Experts League was founded two years ago. This 20-team, 5x5, 35-keeper (including 10 minor league slots) expert dynasty league was created by Bret Sayre to pit knowledgeable, dedicated dynasty-league fanatics against each other. I am in the early stages of what I hope will be a two-season rebuild, and I’ve totally blown up my roster over the past five or six months.

When I left you last, I spoke about the challenges I experienced while shopping Robinson Cano. For a long while, I couldn’t convince any owners to give up two excellent prospects for the aging slugger. That changed in late April, when I dealt Cano, Josh Reddick and spare parts for Bradley Zimmer, Franklin Barreto and additional prospects. To read a complete breakdown of the deal, check in with George Bissell’s TDGX Transaction breakdown here. For a summary, here’s what it looked like:

Transaction	Traded	Received
4/25/2016 Tom Trudeau Craig Glasser	Robinson Cano	Bradley Zimmer
	Josh Reddick	Franklin Barreto
	Ryan Madson	Yusniel Diaz
	Seth Smith	Kyle Zimmer
	Jon Jay	Desmond Lindsay
	Lonnie Chisenhall
	Mark Canha

That certainly qualifies as the only super prominent move I’ve made so far during the 2016 season, but I’ve also entered low-FAAB bids for a litany of interesting MLBers and a few prospects as I continue to reconstruct my roster.

Transaction Date	Player Added	Bid
4/4/2016	Jarred Cosart, SP, MIA	$5
4/4/2016	Steven Geltz, P, TB	$0
4/4/2016	Dioner Navarro, C, CHW	$0
4/18/2016	Ryan Rua, OF/1B, TEX	$0
4/25/2016	Chris Taylor, SS, SEA	$4
5/2/2016	Billy Butler, UT, OAK	$3
5/2/2016	Wily Peralta, SP, MIL	$3
5/2/2016	J.J. Hoover, P, CIN	$0
5/9/2016	Chi Chi Gonzalez, SP, TEX	$5
5/16/2016	Michael Kopech, SP, BOS	$10
5/16/2016	Max Muncy, 1B, OAK	$0
	Total FAAB Spend:	$30

Of the players I bid on, I’ve already cycled through Cosart, Geltz, Navarro and Hoover. So yeah, I’ve wasted $5. But I’m going to make lots of $3-5 dollar bets on back-of-the-rotation type pitchers as the year progresses, both in the hopes that I’ll unearth a decent arm that I can flip after 10-or-so good starts (Peralta) and in the hopes that I find a longer-term keeper (Gonzalez).

As for players I’m sweeter on in the long-term? I was ecstatic to land Kopech, who’s still a top-200 dynasty prospect, for just $10. He would’ve fetched a far heftier price before he broke his hand. Taylor is hitting quite well in Triple-A, and Muncy has a chance to earn regular at-bats for the A’s; picking him up two days before he was summoned to the majors is extra sweet. Butler is probably the outlier here—even $3 might have been too much to spend—but bit players have value in #TDGX. Maybe he’ll be a pot sweetener for me later.

Add it all together and here’s what my roster looks like as I cost to the worst overall record in #TDGX this season. Players with asterisk were acquired at some point following the 2015 season:

BATTERS	PITCHERS
C: Tom Murphy (MiLB)*	SP: Julio Teheran
1B: Max Muncy*	SP: Vincent Velasquez
2B: Jose Peraza	SP: Trevor Bauer*
3B: Brandon Drury*	SP: Mike Foltynewicz*
SS: Wilmer Flores (DL)	SP: Michael Fulmer
CI: Jacob Lamb*	SP: Mat Latos*
MI: Chris Taylor (MiLB)*	SP: Wily Peralta*
OF: Carlos Gonzalez	P: Chi Chi Gonzalez (MiLB)*
OF: Ben Revere	P: Daniel Norris (MiLB)
OF: Michael Taylor*	BN: Tyler Skaggs (MiLB)*
OF: Ryan Rua*
OF: Dalton Pompey (MiLB)	DL: Kyle Gibson
UT: Billy Butler*	DL: Brett Anderson
UT: Nick Franklin (MiLB)*	DL: Yovani Gallardo
MiLB: Bradley Zimmer*	MiLB: Jake Thompson
MiLB: Franklin Barreto*	MiLB: Jeff Hoffman
MiLB: Aaron Judge*	MiLB: Kyle Zimmer*
MiLB: Jesse Winker*	MiLB: Michael Kopech*
MiLB: Willson Contreras*
MiLB: Amed Rosario*
MiLB: Yusniel Diaz*
MiLB: Chance Sisco
MiLB: Billy McKinney*
MiLB: Rymer Liriano*
MiLB: Garrett Whitley*
MilB: Desmond Lindsay*

There’s plenty of work left to be done. My power outlook isn’t too good, Aaron Judge aside, and I lack a true top-shelf pitching prospect. I’m also a little short on infield prospects, as people have seemed far more willing to give up outfielders. But a huge portion of my prospects should be playing everyday by mid-2017, and my few veterans—CarGo, Revere, Teheran, etc.—figure to be still be fantasy assets through 2018 and beyond.

I don’t think my rebuild has been perfect. In some ways I’ve chosen quantity over quality, and as I lamented in my last post, I’d probably be in better shape if I had realized the reality of my situation a year earlier. But compared to how my roster looked just six months ago I like where I’m at right now. Add another savvy waiver wire pickup or two and some strong draft picks to my crew for 2017, and it should be a much more fun season than 2016 has been thus far.

Ben Carsley is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @bencarsley
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