May 18, 2016

The Call-Up

Mike Clevinger

by Will Haines and Scooter Hotz

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The Situation: With the White Sox barreling ahead and the Royals hot on their heels, the Indians have called up Mike Clevinger to patch a hole in the bottom of their rotation. Cody Anderson, the former fifth starter, has been optioned back to Triple-A Columbus after opposing batters hit .359/.391/.627 against him thus far. Clevinger will slide into Anderson’s spot in the rotation, and attempt to post a better ERA than the 7.99 rate of his predecessor.

Background: Clevinger, a big right-hander from Jacksonville, was taken by the Angels in the fourth round of the 2011 draft. He pitched a year in the Midwest league before injuring his elbow and undergoing Tommy John surgery. After a long recovery process which robbed him of the majority of his 2012 and 2013 seasons, Clevinger bounced back in 2014, as his command returned and confidence grew. Later that season, Anaheim flipped him to the Indians for Vinnie Pestano, a stocky reliever who tossed a couple of clean innings before flaming out in 2015. The Indians are likely feeling fairly triumphant after that trade, considering Clevinger took big strides the following year, hurling 158 innings and posting great numbers in a full season at Double-A Akron. The Indians acknowledged his breakout season by awarding him their Minor League Pitcher of the Year award. Clevinger started strong in his 2016 campaign at Triple-A, although his walk rate has nearly doubled, a concerning trend that may prove to be noise in a 35-inning sample or something more sinister.

Scouting Report: At 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, Clevinger has the frame to handle a starter’s workload, even though that might not be reflected in his track record so far. The right-hander utilizes a big leg kick and three-quarters arm slot to generate velocity. His windup can appear funky at times, as he starts pigeon-toed, straightens out, and launches forward with a clean leg strike, sweeping his back leg out as he finishes his delivery. There’s a lot of effort in this delivery, which is slightly troubling, but Clevinger has had few injury issues since his Tommy John surgery, and improved his repeatability and mechanics with Cleveland’s respected minor-league coaching staff.

Clevinger’s main offering is his four seam fastball, a true heater that touches 97 mph but sits mostly 92-95. The control and command of this pitch has come a long way, but likely will max out at solid average. The slider is the strongest secondary offering, a plus pitch with late break and sharp tumble. That offering pairs well with the curveball, a 12-6 pitch with good spin that Clevinger can use to change a hitter’s eye level. There’s a changeup in this arsenal as well, but it lacks sufficient break to be an anything more than a fringe-average offering at best. He can struggle to throw his secondaries for strikes, but the late-breaking action on the slider and curve can fool hitters consistently and the changeup should provide an extra weapon against lefties.

Immediate Big League Future: Clevinger has inherited Anderson’s spot in the rotation for the foreseeable future, and it is his job to lose. With other intriguing arms waiting in Triple-A, he’ll have to limit damage and keep his walk rate down to secure the job long-term. That said, he has the arsenal and pitchability to have immediate success in the majors, especially in his debut, where he’ll face a feeble Cincinnati lineup. He’ll also enjoy the benefits of playing in front of Fransico Lindor and the other esteemed defenders that he can now call his teammates. If Clevinger can string together a couple of strong outings, the Cleveland rotation will get even more dangerous, and Chicago and Kansas City will take note. —Will Haines

Fantasy Take:Don’t sleep on Indians’ pitchers. Over the last few seasons, Cleveland has developed a middling prospect (Corey Kluber) and a formerly middling prospect (Carlos Carrasco) into top-of-the-rotation starters. Their minor league development staff and their major league pitching coach Mickey Callaway are developing a reputation as reclamation project experts much like the Pirates and Ray Searage.

Clevinger is the latest product of Cleveland’s pitcher pipeline. The big righty has a lot of upside but also comes with a fair amount of risk. To wit: he didn’t make BP’s Top 101 Prospect list but was named as one of the prospects with the highest ceiling outside the top 101, and he didn’t make Cleveland’s top 10 prospect list but was listed as one of two notable omissions by the BP prospect staff. His lack of prospect pedigree means that fantasy players shouldn’t expect to be able to trade him for much right now, although that could certainly change if he dominates from day one.

In the short term, Clevinger has a favorable matchup in his debut against the free-swinging Reds. He also doesn’t face much of a threat from Cody Anderson, the man whose struggles opened a spot in the rotation in the first place. The immediate threat to Clevinger, besides his probably fluky 4.35 BB/9 rate in Triple-A, comes from the rehabbing Carlos Carrasco. The Indians don’t seem to have made a decision on which starter will step aside once Carrasco is ready, but there are only two candidates: Clevinger and Trevor Bauer. If Clevinger gets off to a hot start, Bauer could be sent back to the bullpen. If he doesn’t, he’ll be back in Columbus until someone gets hurt or Bauer pitches his way out of the rotation.

Longer term, the Jacksonville native looks like a decent bet. Bauer is unlikely to hold his spot in the rotation for long given his track record, and Clevinger is ready now, which should give him a leg up on the rest of the arms in Cleveland’s pitching-rich farm system.

Fantasy owners should expect an above-average strikeout rate, a good H/9, and a slightly below-average BB/9. Owners in dynasty and keeper leagues should note that the Indians’ track record with pitchers is similar to the Cardinals’ track record with hitters: they can make an All-Star out of guys without prospect pedigrees. If you like to gamble on upside, you could do a lot worse. —Scooter Hotz

Will Haines is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @cubstruction
Click here to see Will's other articles. You can contact Will by clicking here
Scooter Hotz is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @wavingatyou
Click here to see Scooter's other articles. You can contact Scooter by clicking here