May 10, 2016

Closer Report

Week Six

by Matt Collins

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It was a relatively slow week for closers, with very few notable blowups and even less moving and shaking among the ninth-inning ranks. There are a few notable stories for the week ahead any beyond, though. Before we get to that, however, last week a commenter asked me to put together a ranking, and I obliged. You can find it here. The star divides represent tiers. You’ll notice that there is no analysis provided for any of the picks, as I didn’t have time to write all of that up. If you have any questions about the ranking, drop them in the comments and I’ll get back to you. Additionally, my updated closer grid is here. As always, the changes since last week are highlighted in yellow. Now, to the report!

Aroldis Chapman is Back

The Yankees’ new closer is back on the roster after his 30-day suspension that stemmed from a frankly gross situation. As uneasy as I am to make anything like this about fantasy, the reality is that this affects fantasy owners in all leagues. Chapman will immediately be placed into the closer role in New York, pushing Andrew Miller back to a setup capacity. Chapman was presumably drafted and stashed in just about every league, so you likely won’t be able to break your FAAB bank to grab him. The real question is what to do with Miller. In just about every league, there is no reason to drop or trade him, particularly in roto. He is among the elite relievers in the game, and will do wonders for rate stats. One thing I noticed while putting together the aforementioned rankings was just how much the closer ranks drop off after the top-13 or so. On top of that, the Yankees have struggled out of the gate and could find themselves in a selling role at the deadline. That means Miller could find himself back in a closer role later in the year either after a Chapman trade or after he’s traded to a team with a void in the ninth inning. The final part of this is with regards to Dellin Betances. I don’t believe Chapman’s return moves the needle too much with him, but it’s worth noting that this will enable the Yankees to use Betances earlier in games. That makes it more likely he can vulture a few wins for those of you in standard 5x5 leagues.

The Shrug Emoji is Still the Reds’ Closer

I’m as sick of writing about Cincinnati’s bullpen as you are of reading about them, but they are the most interesting group in the league. The Reds still haven’t had anyone step up as a reliable option, or anything even close to that. Last week, I said that Ross Ohlendorf was the best fantasy option in that group, and while I still believe that’s true, I’m much less enthusiastic about it. He had something of a rough week, allowing runs in two of his three outings since we last spoke. Tony Cingrani was handed the only save chance last week, and he converted it, but that doesn’t mean he’s a shoo-in for the closer role. While he may have the most talent, he remains the only lefty in that bullpen. It’s unclear if they want to save that resource for the ninth inning every night. Caleb Cotham may still be in the discussion, too, but he’s been atrocious lately. After Saturday’s outing in which he allowed five runs without recording an out, he has an 18.00 ERA in his last five outings. It’s not just the product of one bad outing, either, as he’s allowed runs in four of those five appearances The best long-term option may yet again be Jumbo Diaz, who I was relatively high on before the season started. He had a rough start to the year, and was subsequently sent down, but he’s pitched well at Triple-A. It’s more a product of the team’s situation than Diaz’s credentials, but he’s the guy to speculate on for saves down the road. Not that I’d be doing that with the Reds’ bullpen at this point.

Let’s Talk About the Phillies

Before the season started, I fully expected the Phillies to be in a similar situation to the Reds. Instead, they’ve surprised everybody by playing well and keeping together a stable bullpen. Jeanmar Gomez has held down the ninth option in admirable fashion, and has earned himself a longer leash, at least relative to a few weeks ago. With that being said, he did blow a save last week and does not have a huge fan in either DRA or cFIP. Breathing down his neck is Hector Neris, who has been at least as surprising if not more so. Neris has been electric in 2016, striking out nearly 13 batters per nine innings to go with a 2.32 DRA and a 66 cFIP. He can certainly help in deeper leagues even without a closer role. The one drawback to Neris’ future value is that he can pitch multiple innings right now, and the Phillies may want to keep him out of the closer role to utilize him more efficiently earlier in games, much like Trevor May with the Twins. Also worth nothing is David Hernandez, who lost the closer job early in the year but has performed very well in the time since. Gomez shouldn’t lose the job in the next week, but there is enough talent in this Phillies’ bullpen to at least keep an eye on the situation.

Quick Hits

Brad Boxberger is inching closer to a return, potentially starting a rehab assignment in a few days. This is bad news for Alex Colomé owners, as they’ve gotten great production for the Rays’ fill-in option. As I said last week, I expect Tampa to split the closer duties, hurting the value of each of these guys.

Huston Street should start a throwing program this week, which means he could be back in action in a couple of weeks. Joe Smith, who’s filling in through Street’s absence, did record one save last week but he also took the loss in a rough outing on Saturday. I remain wary of Smith, but if Street can be back soon a guy like Fernando Salas may not get a shot at the ninth inning.

Glen Perkins, meanwhile, doesn’t have a timetable to start his rehab. The longer he is out, the more value May has in Minnesota. Kevin Jepsen is a fine fill-in option, but he’s nothing special and at some point May will have to get his chance, multi-inning outings be damned.

Finally, I’d like to give a short shoutout to the Marlins’ underrated bullpen. A.J. Ramos was severely underrated this winter given Carter Capps’ presence, and has proven that he is a great reliever in his own right. Meanwhile, David Phelps has been terrific in a full-time relief role, and Kyle Barraclough is showing the kind of improved command that could make him an elite fantasy RP as soon as 2017.

Matt Collins is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MattRyCollins
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