April 12, 2016

Closer Report

Week Two

by Matt Collins

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We’re one week into the season and, unsurprisingly, not a whole lot has happened in the world of closers. There have been a few changes, but most of the news has been more speculative than concrete. Here is the up-to-date closer grid, with the changes made since last week’s publishing highlighted in yellow.

Phillies Bullpen: Still Sad
The expectations for the bullpen in Philadelphia were unspeakably low before the season started, and they’ve somehow failed to meet those expectations. Last week, I mentioned that David Hernandez was the early favorite to earn saves, but he squandered that chance with a terrible first outing. To his credit, he’s been fine in his three appearances since then, striking out four batters in 2 2/3 innings without a walk. The damage was already done, however, and the Phillies moved on to Dalier Hinojosa. That didn’t last long either. That leaves us with Jeanmar Gomez, who is the only Phillie to convert his first save chance. As I said last week, you can ideally find a way to avoid this situation. However, those in deep and NL-only leagues should look to Gomez for saves. He’s not going to help in any other area and is entirely unexciting, but he’s the safest choice in this group. I also think Hernandez could be worth owning for now in some leagues. He’s likely more prone to blowups than Gomez, but he offers a more enticing package that could lead to saves and strikeouts if Gomez falters. Once again, all these words made me sad.

Sam Dyson or Keone Kela?
There were many—myself included—who were worried about Shawn Tolleson losing his job at some point this year. It’s not that he’s a bad pitcher, because he’s not. He pitched to a 2.99 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 78 cFIP, and 3.79 DRA in 2015. The problem is he gives up a lot of home runs, is somewhat prone to blowups, and is in a really good bullpen. To be clear, he hasn’t lost his job to this point, but he had a rough first week in which he allowed five runs without recording an out in one outing and allowed the winning run to score in his next. This has led to some rumblings about him being replaced at some point soon, and there’s some debate about who will step in. I still have Kela as the next man up, but I’m much less confident about that than I was a week ago. I still believe Kela is the superior pitcher and should provide value in deeper leagues regardless of his role, but Dyson has pitched later in games so far this year and done well in those opportunities. This is a situation I’ll be watching very closely this week, and both should be owned in deep and AL-only leagues.

Braves and A’s Being Mean To Fantasy Owners
If you’re reading Baseball Prospectus, you’ll likely agree that strict reliever roles aren’t the best way to maximize production from any given bullpen. While that’s true, it’s a fact that hurts fantasy owners. The Braves and A’s are reminding us why this week. Starting in Atlanta, it didn’t take long for Arodys Vazcaino to save chances away from Jason Grilli. In fact, Fredi Gonzalez announced it just hours after this posted last week. However, he didn’t exactly commit to Vizcaino as a closer, but instead declared that he’d be used in the highest leverage situation. Now, this will come in the ninth inning more often than not and Vizcaino is still the guy to own in this unit. However, it’s going to be frustrating for owners, especially considering how bad this Braves team is poised to be.

The situation is a bit less bleak in Oakland, but still frustrating. Sean Doolittle was one of my favorite value buys among relievers this spring, and he’s looking like he’s back to something close to past form in 2016. However, we saw last weekend that he won’t automatically be held for save opportunities. Against the Mariners on Friday, Doolittle was sent out for the eighth inning in a tie game to face the meat of Seattle’s lineup. He shut them down, and Ryan Madson got the save. Like Vizcaino, Doolittle is still very much worth owning and I still believe he will be one of the best RPs in fantasy this year. However, there will be a few extra save chances he misses through the year, and those should be scooped up by Madson. All of this is to say thatif Madson is still available in your league and you are looking for a better RP3, go get him.

Quick Hits
Like Tolleson, Santiago Casilla is a solid reliever who many believe is at risk to lose his job at some point this year. He did blow a save this week, but that was sandwiched between two converted chances. As for his backups, Hunter Strickland was really impressive with five strikeouts in three scoreless innings while Sergio Romo gave up one run in three outings. I’m starting to come around on the idea of Strickland being the next man up, though I’m not all the way there yet.

In Colorado, Jake McGee should have a strong hold on the ninth inning. However, if something happens to him, there are some question marks. Chad Qualls had a rough outing on Saturday, while Miguel Castro has seven strikeouts in four scoreless innings. I’ve moved the latter into the second spot in the Rockies’ bullpen.

There isn’t much to watch for in Pittsburgh, as Mark Melancon and Tony Watson make up one of the best one-two punches in the league. However, Ray Searage works magic on everyone and it looks like Neftali Feliz could be part of that group. The former Rookie of the Year has four scoreless innings under his belt with five strikeouts and zero walks. He’s not fantasy relevant at this point, but he’s someone to keep an eye on going forward.

It was a rough week for Ken Giles, who allowed runs in each of his first two outings and has already allowed two home runs. I’m not worried about his skill set, but this may have bought Luke Gregerson a slightly longer leash as the Astros’ closer.

Matt Collins is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MattRyCollins
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