April 12, 2016

Raising Aces

Outstanding Arms from Week One

by Doug Thorburn

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The starting pitcher population is an ever-evolving pool of talent, and despite the best efforts of some extremely smart individuals, no pitcher possesses a static level of “true talent” that is so often sought after in sabermetrics. Pitching is extremely difficult, such that even the best in the world miss most of their targets most of the time, and part of my infatuation with pitching is a fascination with how pitchers can seem to suddenly have everything click for a stretch of pitches, and then have everything completely fall apart without a moment's notice.

The continuous development of pitchers at all levels of play is what keeps me tuned at the edge of my seat, to study how a pitcher is changing with respect to mechanics, stuff and performance. Post-hoc analysis that focuses on an entire season often misses the developmental nuance that occurs throughout the year; a pitcher doesn't just show up one day with a killer changeup, rather it's something that he needs to practice and gain confidence with in order to maximize its effectiveness.

With this in mind, I present a new weekly series for Raising Aces, with a week-by-week look at a handful of pitchers who stood out among the major-league population. Roll the dice on an entire pool of pitchers and a few surprises are bound to emerge, and the opening week was no exception. Let's look into a few of the outstanding mound performances of the first week.

You'll notice a lean towards two-start pitchers this week, so there will be a common Monday/Saturday theme when combing through the list.

Madison Bumgarner

Bumgarner has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball over the past five years, typically good for something close to a 3.00 ERA and a K per inning. Pitch command is the most impressive piece of his game, with an A-grade delivery that he repeats ad nauseam to generate one of the game's most consistent release points, with a low walk rate of just 4.7-percent (and 1.7 BB/9) over the past two seasons combined.

That's why it was a bit surprising to see him lose control in Milwaukee on Opening Day:

Game Stats

Date	IP	R	H	HR	BB	K	PC
April 4	5.0	3	5	2	5	6	101
April 9	6.0	1	6	0	1	8	102

Bumgarner walked three batters in the opening frame. His first free pass came on a borderline 3-2 pitch that just missed the outer black and could easily have been called for the backwards K, but the second walk was of the four-pitch variety and Bummer went on to force in a run on a five-pitch walk to Chris Carter. To quote Giants announcer Mike Krukow, Bumgarner “can't find the release point on his fastball.” It appeared that he was slightly misaligned, such that Bumgarner was striding a bit more closed than normal and having trouble finding his ideal release point. His command was erratic throughout the five innings that he pitched, and though the fastball was most glaring he didn't seem to have a feel for his release point with any of his pitches.

The second outing was his face-off with rival southpaw Ace Clayton Kershaw, a foe that went toe-to-toe with Bumgarner four different times in 2015. Bum had corrected the issue with his release point in time for this game, allowing him to spin his usual magic with eight strikeouts and one walk. He also did some of his own yardwork, taking Kershaw deep for the twelfth home run of Bumgarner's career and his second lifetime bomb off of Kershaw.

So Bumgarner was definitely off-kilter with his command in the first game of the season, but he was able to correct the issue by his next outing, lessening any worry about his ability to hit spots in the near future. More concerning is the lack of velocity that was persistent in both starts, averaging 91.0 mph in each outing after averaging 93.0 mph on the fastball last season. Perhaps he's just saving the gas in the tank for later in the season, a leniency that Bumgarner earned by throwing his hardest pitches at the end of his longest campaign, that being the 2014 postseason. He also started with low velocity last year but was up to normal within a couple of starts, but it's worth noting the downturn and keeping a close eye on his radar-gun readings in the next few starts.

Julio Teheran

Teheran is a somewhat polarizing player. He has the talent to lead most rotations and the pedigree to justify such a position, but he is seemingly forgotten in the sea of National League pitchers. His fantasy ranking has sunk so low that I have found him sitting there as an SP5 or even an SP6 in standard 12-team leagues (at which point I draft him). His poor team context makes a modicum of sense in fantasyland, where the Wins category represents one-quarter of his potential value, but his difficult 2015 season has taken him out of the focus of the baseball community, as well.

Game Stats

Date	IP	R	H	HR	BB	K	PC
April 4	6.0	2	5	2	3	4	102
April 9	4.0	5	6	0	4	4	89

I remained high on Teheran, but his erratic performance on Saturday admittedly shook my confidence. Like Bumgarner, Teheran walked three batters in the first inning, and in the second inning he unleashed a pair of wild pitches that sailed to the backstop, including some chin music to opposing pitcher Carlos Martinez and, a few pitches later, a pitch that was completely over-rated as he overcompensated to find a release point:

The biggest gain that Teheran made in his breakout campaign of 2014 was with pitch command, but he unfortunately gave back those gains (and then some) last year. He has some mechanical quirks (he spreads his limbs like an “X” mid-stride) but overall Teheran has a solid foundation, with stable balance when everything is right. The key is finding a healthy medium between his stability (balance and posture) and power (momentum and torque), which will support consistent timing, as he has a powerful delivery that includes a big burst of momentum, but right now Teheran is struggling mightily to keep things under control. My optimism will be on hold until he shows a more consistent release point.

Rich Hill

Hill came out of nowhere last season to spin a trio of double-digit strikeout games down the stretch for the Red Sox, and those four starts earned him $6 million to pitch this season for the A's. The team had to be worried that it would be a sunk cost, after a horrific spring in which Hill gave up 15 walks and 15 earned runs in 12.0 innings. Nonetheless, Hill took the ball as the Opening Day starter for Oakland, filling in for Sonny Gray after the right-hander had fallen ill. The results were disappointing, but at least the A's had to be relieved that Hill only walked one batter.

Game Stats

Date	IP	R	H	HR	BB	K	PC
April 4	2.7	4	3	0	1	3	66
April 9	6.0	1	5	1	1	10	99

Hill wasn't putting batters away in game one of the season, getting just six empty swings out of the 66 pitches. The key to Hill's whole approach is tied to effectiveness of his curveball, but he couldn't get the pitch under the zone. The pitch was flatter than usual, prompting the pitch classification system at Brooks Baseball to label 21 of his pitches as sliders (with 18 curves), even though he had thrown just 17 sliders combined over his four major league starts of 2015. When the pitch is working, his curve is a loopy pitch with two-plane break that he will throw anywhere from 75-to-82 mph; but when he leaves the pitch up, it flattens out and floats in front of the wide eyes of opposing batters.

Most important is Hill's ability to get the curve under the zone, to bury the pitch under the waving bats of opposing hitters. Check out the pitch-plot comparisons for the two games under the microscope, to see what I mean:

4/4 Plot (left); 4/9 Plot (right)

Hill didn't throw a single pitch below knee level in his Opening Day start, and several of his pitches missed so wide of the zone that batters had an easy time laying off. Compare that to the plot from April 9, in which we get tighter clusters of pitch locations, more of those pitches are found around the edges of the strike zone and he buried a dozen pitches or so under the zone (most of which were curves). Then again, most of Hill's pitches that day were curves, as 54 of the 99 pitches earned the “curveball” designation (sliders completely disappeared). It worked, too, as he registered a striking 16 whiffs, with 10 of those empty swings coming on curves. Hill showed us both Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde, but the inconsistency is frightening and the downside is steep, while one wonders how long he can sustain a 55-percent frequency of breaking pitches.

Robert Stephenson

The Reds have an incredibly thin starting rotation. The role of no. 1 starter is being occupied by a player that wasn't a rotation regular until midway through last season, their most reliable veteran arm is coming back from Tommy John surgery, and their ace of the past several years is now plying his trade in San Francisco. The team was further set back by the oblique injury to Anthony DeSclafani (who is expected back soon), opening the opportunity for Stephenson to give the majors a roll.

Game Stats

Date	IP	R	H	HR	BB	K	PC
April 7	5.0	4	6	2	2	1	99

It might feel odd to call a game with two homers allowed and just a single strikeout a “successful” outing, but for a young pitcher who was being tested at the highest level despite a spotty track record in the minors, the Reds have to be pretty pleased with the results of Stephenson's debut. He was hit up a bit, but Robertson kept his team in the ballgame, and walking two batters was a minor success for a pitcher that had 4.8 BB/9 over his last two seasons in the minors.

The young right-hander is all stuff and no control at the moment, averaging 92.8 mph on his fastball in his debut while spiking 95.3 mph, including seven empty swings on the 62 fastballs that he threw. He had a very tough time locating the secondaries, which has been an ongoing problem for Stephenson, as just three of the 12 changeups that he threw generated strikes (two were of the swing-and-miss variety).. and though more than half of his curves earned strikes, just one of the dozen hammers that he threw was whiffed by opposing batters.

Stephenson clearly needs more seasoning in the minors and his debut last Thursday was made out of need rather than his being ready, but he flashed the stuff that has buoyed his prospect stock, What he lacks is command, which is a common malady for young pitchers, and it could take awhile before his arsenal is ready for prime time.

Doug Thorburn is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @doug_thorburn
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