March 29, 2016

Rumor Roundup

The Two Most Exciting Fifth Starters Named

by Daniel Rathman

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Phillies choose Vincent Velasquez to be their fifth starter
Position battles abound for rebuilding teams like the Phillies, but as the spring winds down, one of the biggest battles in Clearwater, Florida, has now been decided. On Monday, manager Pete Mackanin told the media that Vincent Velasquez—who came over from the Astros in the Ken Giles blockbuster earlier this winter—has won the no. 5 starter job, relegating Adam Morgan, who started 15 games for Philadelphia last season, to Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

Velasquez, who turns 24 in June, debuted with the Astros last year in a swingman capacity. He made seven starts and appeared 12 times in relief, racking up 58 strikeouts in 55 2/3 innings, a reflection of big-league-ready stuff. Chris Crawford wrote in our Transaction Analysis of the Giles trade, “At worst, Velasquez marks a strong central piece as a potential high-leverage reliever,” but the Phillies will let him start until he proves he can’t, and his ceiling could be substantially loftier than the late-inning floor.

The decision is good news for fantasy players, as Velasquez’s ceiling is much higher in those circles because of his strikeout potential. Morgan fanned just 49 batters in 84 1/3 innings during his first tour of the majors, and his 4.48 ERA, while palatable for a fifth starter in a hitter-friendly park, masked a 115 cFIP that suggests the Phillies are wise to set their sights higher. In choosing Velasquez over Morgan, Mackanin has done just that.

Blue Jays roll with Aaron Sanchez over Gavin Floyd
Unlike the Phillies, the Blue Jays are a hopeful 2016 contender, but they too had a choice to make to round out their rotation quintet. Like the Phillies, they made that decision Monday morning, opting for a high-upside youngster over a veteran flashing signs of a renaissance.

Manager John Gibbons told reporters yesterday that Aaron Sanchez has officially won the gig over Gavin Floyd, a reward for the 23-year-old’s outstanding Grapefruit League performance. Sanchez made five trips to the bump in Florida, three of them as a starter, and amassed a 19-to-3 K:BB ratio in 20 innings—exactly what he needed to do to put to bed concerns about his control after he issued 44 free passes in 92 1/3 frames last season. Floyd, whose arm is finally back intact, was a valiant foe, with 11 strikeouts against just three walks in 12 1/3 innings on the bump, but there were only five spots to go around, and Sanchez earned his keep.

On the bright side for the 33-year-old former Phillie, White Sox, Brave, and Indian, the Jays intend to place him on the active roster. Floyd will be asked to work out of the bullpen, and he might be the next man up if one of the starters comes down with an injury. The Blue Jays have additional depth in Drew Hutchison, who is okay after getting beaned on a throw down from his catcher, but they’ve let go of Floyd’s fellow veteran Roberto Hernandez, who is expected to choose free agency over a ticket to Triple-A Buffalo.

There also remains an outside chance that Floyd will have an Opening Day rotation slot, before moving to the middle-relief role Gibbons wants him to fill. Marco Estrada is fighting a nagging back injury that could force him to begin the year on the disabled list. While the righty was optimistic over the weekend that he’d be ready to roll when his turn comes, Floyd’s presence might give the Jays the luxury of letting Estrada heal up before trotting him out in mid-April.

Brian Duensing opting out of deal with Royals
Potentially joining Hernandez in the voluntary unemployment line is Brian Duensing, who told reporters Monday that he’s ready to bolt from the Royals unless he’s assured of an Opening Day spot on the 40-man roster. Kansas City Star beat writer Rustin Dodd relayed that news, which puts the onus on general manager Dayton Moore to decide whether the southpaw’s possible contributions to Ned Yost’s bullpen are worth his $2 million price tag.

Duensing, who celebrated his 33^rd birthday in February, had spent the entirety of his major-league career with the Twins before signing with their AL Central rivals earlier this offseason. He was shaky in 55 appearances out of the bullpen in 2015, racking up a 24-to-21 K:BB ratio in 48 2/3 innings, including an 11-to-10 split when facing fellow lefties. On the other hand, Duensing appeared to redeem himself this spring, with 10 strikeouts and three walks in 10 1/3 innings.

The Royals bullpen has some new faces, but it’s as deep as it has been in recent seasons, with Kelvin Herrera and Joakim Soria setting up Wade Davis in Greg Holland’s absence. However, Danny Duffy is the only left-handed member of the projected Opening Day relief crew, and while most of Yost’s northpaws don’t have a pronounced platoon split, there’d appear to be room for a specialist to join the party.

Duensing, though, fulfills only one-half of the job requirements of a “lefty specialist”—the former part, not the latter. Lefties hold an aggregate .267/.341/.355 slash line against him over the course of his career, good for a .260 TAv, just five points below righties’ .265 mark. Hence, while Duensing would give Yost a second southpaw, his utility might not be any greater than that of another righty, and it would hardly be shocking to see the Royals let him walk today.

Daniel Rathman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @danielrathman
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