March 29, 2016

Fantasy Freestyle

Juan Nicasio: Is it Too Soon to Buy in?

by George Bissell

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“Mulder, the human mind naturally seeks meaningful patterns and configurations in things that don't inherently have any. Given the suggestion of a particular image, you can't help but see that shape somewhere.” –Dana Scully in The X-Files episode “Clyde Bruckman’s Final Repose” (1995)

Envisioning A Breakout
The human mind sees only what it wants to see. Especially during spring training, when every fantasy owner is brimming with (over) confidence, a relentless optimism that their version of the ensuing season is the most prescient of their competitors and that they’ve constructed the best possible roster to compete for a championship. It’s easy to convince ourselves that anything is possible, which naturally leads us to the most perplexing storyline of the spring, the Pirates latest reclamation project, Juan Nicasio.

The 29-year-old right-hander has yet to surrender a run over five major-league appearances (four starts), allowing just 10 hits while striking out 24 of the 59 batters he’s faced and issuing just five free passes over 15 innings this spring. Those numbers would make even Clayton Kershaw pause to take notice. It’s a ridiculously small sample to draw any definitive conclusions from, but at the very least his spring performance has all but guaranteed he will open the regular season in the Pirates rotation.

It’s a matter of perception. When it comes to forecasting Nicasio’s performance into the regular season, how much stock should be put into his performance this spring? Witnessing Nicasio light up the radar gun with his four-seam fastball, and flummox opposing hitters with a sharp biting slider (reportedly revamped after working with Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage), it’s easy to connect the dots to the Steel City’s reclamations of the past.

“Like Francisco Liriano, Edinson Volquez and A.J. Burnett before him, Juan Nicasio is starting to look like a bargain, like another Ray Searage special, this spring,” wrote beat writer Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review last week after a dominant outing in which Nicasio struck out 10 Orioles over four shutout innings. Sawchik, who also authored the definitive book on the organizations turnaround, “Big Data Baseball,” last year, is not wrong by any stretch. The objective opinion of a source like Sawchik, someone who has covered the team on a daily basis for years, is invaluable when it comes to projecting Nicasio going forward. However, putting aside the numbers and the narrative for a moment, are we jumping to conclusions believing that the new-look Nicasio will carry over into the regular season, which begins next week.

Doubt
Thanks to decades of research by Philip Tetlock, currently a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, we know that the most successful forecasters think like foxes, not hedgehogs. The reference comes from a passage attributed to a Greek poet named Archilochus, who wrote, “the fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing.” It’s tempting to take the hedgehog approach and buy into the one big idea in this case, that Nicasio is on the precipice of a fantasy breakout. However, it’s important to think like a fox, considering a plethora of factors before making a judgment.

It’s easy to envision a burgeoning fantasy stud in Nicasio. However, let’s not overlook the fact that less than four months ago, he was nontendered by the Dodgers, an organization with seemingly infinite financial resources and a propensity to stockpile potential starting pitchers at a rate that can only be matched by Scrooge McDuck‘s affinity for hoarding gold coins. It’s fair to be skeptical when an analytically savvy front office after a full season of coaching and evaluating Nicasio in low-leverage situations (1.1 leverage index, according to Baseball Info Solutions data) simply let him walk. Smart organizations make mistakes all the time, but that doesn’t answer the essential question in this case. Are we staring the Pirates latest successful reclamation project, or is Nicasio still a work in progress, a starter with glaring weaknesses (suspect command, dramatic platoon splits, and the complete absence of a third pitch) that could ultimately derail his long-term effectiveness in the rotation?

We simply don’t know the answer to those questions right now, which is what makes Nicasio potentially the most intriguing pitcher to watch in April. The range of potential outcomes is wider than the Pacific Ocean. Unfortunately, due to the lack of PITCHf/x from Florida spring training games, we lack the necessary data to determine what (if anything) has actually changed for him since donning a black and yellow uniform. All we have to go off are the numbers and his performance a year ago to make an evaluation.

I Know What Nicasio Did Last Summer
Clearly, Nicasio is oozing with raw talent. His fastball averaged a career-high 95.72 mph, and he struck out over 10 batters per nine as a full-time reliever in Los Angeles last season. Unfortunately, his control (4.9 BB/9) remained lackluster, to put it kindly, and he posted a 3.86 ERA over 58 1/3 innings of work. By Deserved Run Average, Nicasio’s performance (4.70 DRA) ranked 243rd out of 329 pitchers who threw at least 50 innings last season. Despite a merciful extraction from Colorado and a permanent shift to the bullpen where his stuff should have played up in shorter stints, he pitched poorly with the Dodgers in 2015.

Speaking of the stuff, it’s pretty good. It’s not Joe Kelly, but come on, who is? According to the Baseball Prospectus PITCHf/x leaderboards, Nicasio boasted one of the best fastballs of any reliever in the game, in terms of generating swings and misses (28.36 percent), last season. Meanwhile, his slider generated just a paltry 23.62 percent whiffs-per-swing rate, the fourth-lowest mark of any reliever in the game.

The problem with Nicasio’s arsenal is that there isn’t more of it. As Jason Parks wrote regarding scouting and player development in Baseball Prospectus’ Extra Innings, “while a good fastball can carry the majority of the load, the secondary and tertiary components of the arsenal will ultimately determine the possible range of success.” If Searage and the Pirates coaching staff have truly refined and improved Nicascio’s slider, turning it into more of a swing-and-miss weapon than it was a year ago, then his odds of making it as a starter increase exponentially. So far, the slider looks great.

Juan Nicasio really impressive today. Thus far: 2.2IP, H, 0R, 0BB, 6K. 92-95 mph fastball, swing-and-miss slider

— Travis Sawchik (@Sawchik_Trib) March 16, 2016

We still haven’t addressed Nicasio’s rather dramatic platoon splits. He thoroughly dominated right-handed batters, but was pummeled by southpaws out of the Dodgers bullpen last year. It’s unlikely that the move to the rotation with the same two-pitch repertoire will yield dramatically different results.

2015 Splits	PA	K/BB	AVG	OBP	SLG
vs. RHB	174	3.27	.226	.298	.335
vs. LHB	86	0.94	.348	.477	.493

Entering 2016, the most logical scenario for the Pirates would involve giving Nicasio the Tampa Bay trademarked “Matt Andriese/Nate Karns treatment,” only allowing him to face 18 batters per start to avoid the third time through the order penalty. With only two primary offerings, it’s going to be difficult to keep hitters from sitting on either the fastball or slider after seeing both offerings earlier in the game.

The 2016 Forecast
From a fantasy standpoint, further complicating matters are the game theory elements involved in the decision regarding whether to pick up Nicasio off the wavier wire (or trade for him if he was drafted) right now or risk losing him to another team by waiting. In order for fantasy owners to reap the benefits of a potential full-season breakout, there isn’t sufficient time to sit back and wait for the results from a handful of regular season starts before making a decision, he will be long-gone by that point, even in deeper leagues if he’s pitching reasonably well. There is always an owner scouring the spring training news, looking to capitalize on a “potential breakout,” especially as the Nicasio movement gains traction and buzz industry-wide.

At the very least, Nicasio is emerging as a strong streaming option in shallow formats and a “pick your spots/matchups” rotation piece in deeper mixed league. The strikeouts will be there regardless, but given his struggles against left-handed batters, it’s wise to avoid those types of matchups altogether early on. The ideal strategy would involve plugging him in exclusively against lineups chock full of right-handed bats.

It’s entirely possible that after an offseason on Dagobah, under the tutelage of Jedi Master Searage, the adjustments Nicasio has made (no matter how big or small) have had an impact, and his stellar performance this spring is completely legitimate. However, until we see it in a regular season environment, I would be hesitant to buy in completely, given his struggles in the past and the glaring risks in his overall profile.

George Bissell is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @GeorgeBissell
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