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March 30, 2016 My Model PortfolioThe 70/30 Split ... Almost
Mike Gianella recently released his latest mixed league Bid Limits for 2016, which reignited an idea from Bret Sayre called Model Portfolios, wherein the fantasy staff will create their own team within the confines of a standard 23-man, $260 budget. The roster being constructed includes: C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OFx5, UTx2, and Px9 along with the following standards issued by our fantasy overlord, Mr. Sayre: We are using the mixed-league values. You can use any player not on Mike's sheet for $1. The scoring will be 5x5 roto, so we're not just picking the players who will return the most value. Eligibility is kept to the positions applicable right now. No potential in-season eligibility is to be considered. We will track these teams throughout the season to see how everyone fared. Greg Wellemeyer recently took a look at how last season’s Model Portfolios turned out. You are required to pick at least one of Adam Lind, Kyle Schwarber, Billy Hamilton, Anthony DeSclafani, Jaime Garcia, or Edwin Jackson. Okay, maybe I made that part up.
The Process I aimed for approximately 70 percent on offense, and came within a dollar of nailing that figure exactly. (I don’t get a prize for that, do I? I probably should if we’re being honest.) Here’s how the team shook out:
In the infield, going cheap means acquiring additional power through any means necessary—and in this case, it’s taking two of the riskiest 30-homer sluggers in baseball: Alvarez and Carter. Both are in great hitting environments and they could combine for 70 homers, or both could end up buried on the depth chart by July. Add in Danny Valencia, who is well worth the fluke risk at $2, and I get an $11 corner tree. In the middle, I’ll try to make back a little of the power that I’ll need after focusing a bit on speed in the outfield with Rendon and Kang at second and short, respectively. I am absolutely buying the Rendon bounce-back this year, and think he could approximate his 2014 season (yes, even the steals) if he can just stay on the field for 140 games. Kang will miss the first half of April, but honestly at $7, he could miss the first two months and still return that cost. The world loves Marte, who is no longer a sleeper, but cheap steals in the middle infield are rarer now than they’ve been in years.
Finally, Papi and Beef. Rounding out with more power. Always with more power.
I spent $2 more on pitching this year than I did in this exercise last year, but the distribution is noticeably different. I bought my ace in Adam Wainwright, but went cheaper on the closers (though successfully). This year, I’m spending more on saves to lock down two solid options and taking a few more chances with starters. Here are the magic nine:
Sadly, I don’t own Thor anywhere this year, but it hasn’t been for lack of effort. I was one of the last ones in on him in Mixed Tout and my home auction this past weekend. I had him in one dynasty league that folded prior to the 2015 season. Other than that, I’ve whiffed like the many batters who have faced him this spring. Hamels has also been a target of mine this year, as I think he’s undersold as a reliable top-20 starter. Next comes the 2/3 punch in Arizona behind Zack Greinke. Miller’s DRA (3.14) from 2015 suggests that his strong season was not a mirage, and despite not having the top-flight strikeout numbers some thought he would, he remains a solid SP3 in most formats. Corbin would be higher if there wasn’t the concern over an innings limit in his first full season back from Tommy John. Without any restriction, he’d be a $15 pitcher for me, easily. The fliers are Ross, Santana, and Moore—each at varying stages of their fantasy careers. Ross is in the shiny new toy phase, but doesn’t have the elite pedigree to carry an outrageous price. Moore is the post-hype sleeper, who has all the stuff you could ask for. Santana is the wily veteran who could easily return $8-10 in value. On the closer side, it’s the mid-Atlantic duo of Britton and Papelbon—neither of which are likely to clear 75 strikeouts, but both are likely to save 35 games with an ERA close to 2.00.
Bret Sayre is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @BretSayreBP
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