March 28, 2016

Rumor Roundup

Battle for Fourth Place

by Ashley Varela

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The Braves’ fourth outfield spot is still open to Jeff Francoeur, Michael Bourn, or Emilio Bonifacio
Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn may have been a package deal for the Braves at the 2015 deadline, but it’s almost certain that they’ll be parting ways by Opening Day. The Braves are narrowing down their bench candidates, and according to Mark Bowman of MLB.com, Nick Swisher is likely to get the boot by the end of spring training if he fails to net a trade offer. Assuming the Braves offload the veteran outfielder by absorbing the rest of his $15 million contract, they’ll still have to rid themselves of another outfield candidate to set their 25-man roster. That leaves just three outfielders to duke it out: Bourn, clubhouse personality Jeff Francoeur, and bargain backup Emilio Bonifacio.

Of the three, PECOTA favors Bonifacio by the slightest of hairs, estimating a .237 average coupled with 0.1 WARP in 2016. The 30-year-old’s speed and defensive capabilities in center field would make him a competent backup for Ender Inciarte, even if the Braves have no strong need for a switch-hitter. Bourn’s 2016 projections mirror those of Bonifacio, but his left-handed bat and .229 TAv with Atlanta in 2015 hardly make him a compelling replacement for Inciarte.

Francoeur, on the other hand, could provide a right-handed bat off the bench and enough power potential to make him a lock for one of the available spots. His estimated -0.7 WARP is the worst among the three candidates, but his experience as a pinch-hitter in Philadelphia last season and his versatility in the outfield lend strength to his case, even if his chops in center field aren’t as polished as those of Bonifacio or Inciarte.

Selecting a veteran bench-warmer is hardly at the top of the Braves’ to-do list, but there is a time crunch on this particular decision. If they elect Bourn and Bonifacio to the 25-man roster, they’ll have to inform Francoeur of their decision by Tuesday. If not, they’ll need to cover the $14 million Bourn is owed or the $1.25 million due Bonifacio, or find another team to do so.

Sean Burnett might find a landing spot in the Orioles’ bullpen
The time for blockbuster moves is past, but teams are still scrambling to fill the last gaps of their rosters before the season begins. With Brian Matusz on the mend, the Orioles may be in the market for another left-handed option in their bullpen, and rumor has it that they’re asking about Nationals’ reliever Sean Burnett. There’s only one hitch (well, four hitches if you count Oliver Perez and Felipe Rivero, the primary lefties already crowding the bullpen, and newcomers Zach Phillips and Edgar Olmos): Burnett hasn’t pitched a full season since 2012.

Tommy John surgery in 2013 and a torn UCL in 2014 kept the veteran reliever sidelined indefinitely until the Nationals picked him up on a minor-league contract in December 2015. The potential that flickered on and off throughout his 2009-2010 seasons has mostly faded, and in 2016, a successful comeback will rest entirely on his good health. PECOTA has the 33-year-old locked into an 0.3 WARP with a 3.57 ERA over 38 innings and change, but, with 10 1/3 combined innings to show for the last three years, it’s safer to keep expectations low.

Although Burnett could further clog an already-crowded bullpen, the Orioles seem to be scooping up as many relief options as they can until it’s clear just how long Matusz will be unavailable. Burnett can opt out of his contract with the Nationals by April 1st if Baltimore can’t come up with a suitable trade offer before then.

Either Ivan Nova or CC Sabathia will earn a spot in the Yankees’ rotation
To the winner go the spoils, and to the loser, a spot in the Yankees’ bullpen. With the caveat that both pitchers must remain healthy to start the season, the last rotation spot is up for grabs between Ivan Nova and CC Sabathia. Neither pitcher has looked particularly sharp during spring training, but manager Joe Girardi has stressed that spring numbers have little impact on roster construction. Still, a good turnout in either's final start couldn’t hurt.

The 2015 season was a rough one for both Nova and Sabathia. After undergoing Tommy John surgery in the 2014 offseason, Nova began the year on the disabled list and returned to post a 4.51 DRA in 94 innings. Although some leeway was afforded the 29-year-old during his recovery, his ERA ballooned to 5.07 by season’s end and temporarily booted him to the bullpen. Heading into 2016, the right-hander will need to prove he can regain some of the command he lost post-surgery—and earn the statistics to back that up.

Numbers aren’t the only thing holding Nova back, however. Sabathia had a tumultuous 2015, beginning with an arthritic knee and ending when he removed himself from the team in October to deal with some personal issues. While PECOTA assumes a 4.54 ERA and 0.9 WARP will follow his 2016 performance, Sabathia’s comeback story is a compelling one, and coupled with his strong clubhouse leadership and two dominant spring training starts, Girardi’s decision may be easier than anticipated.

Ashley Varela is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @wcoastfangirl
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