March 25, 2016

Fantasy Auction Values

Third Edition, 2016

by Mike Gianella

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The third update of my fantasy auction values brings another set of dollar values to look at, this time from the expert Tout Wars auctions, which were held this past weekend in New York City. Having a troika of expert auctions to look at gives us even more expert opinions to look at, and gives me yet another opportunity to move my prices up or down based on events at the auctions.

This isn’t the only reason I move my prices up or down, of course. Breaking news can also influence my bid limits for better or worse. This isn’t an exercise in being reactive to every little tidbit of news coming out of Florida or Arizona but rather an opportunity to adjust prices based on larger scale news.

Below are all of the bid adjustments for AL or NL-only that are two dollars or more in one direction or the other for players worth $10 or more in mono formats. Mixed league bids are not listed below but have also been adjusted accordingly.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Hitters

Michael Brantley $26 (previous $22)
The health outlook gets better and better for Brantley as we move toward Opening Day. He earned $39 in AL-only 5x5; if he is completely healthy, he could blow past $26 in AL-only easily.

Mark Teixeira $20 (previous $17)
This was my original bid. I moved it down because CBS and LABR were conservative; Tout Wars’ $20 buy on Saturday convinced me to move the bid back up to $20.

Pitchers

Cole Hamels $18 (previous $20)
No status change. Bid correction is due to a relatively sluggish market for Hamels at AL Tout Wars.

Brad Boxberger $10 (previous $14)
Boxberger is out for at least eight weeks and won’t necessarily be handed the closer’s job when he returns. I moved Alex Colome from one dollar to five dollars, and moved Danny Farquhar up slightly as well.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Hitters

Anthony Rizzo $36 (previous $32)
I don’t quite feel like I am missing something – I know that Rizzo is a great player in real life – but in non-OBP leagues he doesn’t strike me as elite. His price is soaring in the expert circuit, so if you want him this is where the comfort zone starts. I won’t be playing in this end of the auction on Rizzo.

Nolan Arenado $32 (previous $34)
Arenado is great, but the somewhat diminished Rockies lineup pushes him down slightly…especially if Jose Reyes will miss significant time.

Yasiel Puig $25 (previous $23)
I’m not a Puig believer, but the upside is difficult to dismiss completely. I will not push Puig to his full price, but $25 is the floor if you want him this year.

Hector Olivera $13 (previous $10)
I moved Olivera back up after being too tentative last week. He should play, and the home run potential is legit.

Jose Reyes $12 (previous $14)
I do not know what to do with Reyes or how to price him. I purchased him for seven dollars in Tout Wars last weekend. This price could be terrific, but with Reyes’ status completely in limbo, a $12 investment in NL-only formats could be a significant hit. If I had a strong freeze list, I’d stop at $4-5 on Reyes. If I had weak freezes, I’d pay $10-12 and roll the dice.

Jorge Soler $10 (previous $5)
I do not see how Soler will get the playing time in Chicago, but the initial bids have been far more aggressive than this one.

Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg $27 (previous bid $25)
Tyson Ross $16 (previous $14)
Both of these bid adjustments are based on the aggressive prices paid at LABR and Tout Wars NL for both pitchers. Strasburg looked terrific on Wednesday against the Yankees, for whatever that is worth.

NL-only OBP Bids
Upon request from one of our readers, you can find the bid limits I used in NL-only Tout Wars this past Sunday here. Please note that these bid limits were as of March 20, 2016. Any news that has broken after that time (Andre Ethier’s injury, for example) would not be reflected in these bid limits. These are merely intended as a guideline to assist fantasy players in OBP formats.

Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MikeGianella
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