March 18, 2016

Fantasy Auction Values

Fantasy Auction Values, Second Edition 2016

by Mike Gianella

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Below is the second update of my fantasy bid limits for AL-only, NL-only, and mixed leagues for auction formats. Listed below are the players whose prices have been shifted by two dollars or more in either direction. In most cases, I moved my prices up or down based on the results from the CBS and LABR NL and AL-only auctions in late February and early March. I might be in love with Lorenzo Cain this year, but if his average salary is $25, there is no reason to put a bid limit on him over $30. On the other hand, the purpose of this exercise isn’t solely to adjust bid limits based on what players went for in LABR. I want to express a preference, not merely follow the herd.

Adjustments below are for AL and NL only in the case of significant players whose value moved up or down by two dollars or more in either direction. Corresponding mixed bid adjustments will be reflected in the table at the bottom of this article.

A quick note: any late-breaking news will not make this piece (after 5 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 17).

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Non-CBS/LABR Related Adjustments
A.J. Ramos $17 (previous $11)
Carter Capps NO BID (previous $5)
The Capps injury cleared up the Marlins’ somewhat murky closer status.

Jose Reyes $14 (previous $18)
Trevor Story $6 (previous $2)
Uncertainty about a potential suspension pushes his price down significantly. If you don’t want to pay even this price, I don’t blame you. I will move Trevor Story up even more in the next update if it becomes clearer he is the Opening Day starter.

Kenta Maeda $12 (previous $8)
He looks great this spring, and I may need to find more money for him in the update. For all of the hand wringing about the Dodgers starting rotation, it looks like they Maeda good decision here.

Miguel Montero $10 (previous $12)
Jorge Soler $5 (previous $8)
The Dexter Fowler signing will mostly take time away from Soler, but Montero will likely lose a little more time behind the plate with Kyle Schwarber catching 10-15 more games than I had anticipated in early March.

Hector Olivera $10 (previous $13)
I have faith in the bat, but some reports indicate Olivera is struggling in the field. The Braves could send him to Triple-A, and since they are not on competitive footing, there isn’t an imperative to bring him back quickly.

Jhonny Peralta $10 (previous $16)
Jedd Gyorko $6 (previous $4)
Aledmys Diaz $5 (previous NO BID)
This bid assumes Peralta is back in June. I project Gyorko will still be more of a utility player and a platoon partner to Kolten Wong than a regular shortstop and can see Diaz getting a fair amount of playing time at short.

Jason Grill $7 (previous $4)
Arodys Vizcaino $7 (previous $9)
My educated guess is Grilli starts out as the closer and Vizcaino takes over after Grilli is traded. But I don’t have a good feeling about this bullpen in either direction.

David Freese $7 (previous NO BID)

Scott Kazmir $6 (previous $11)
Michael Bolsinger $3 (previous NO BID)
Hyun-Jin Ryu $3 (previous $5)
Yes, I’m nervous about the diminished velocity. I will bump him back up if this is a blip, but the ceiling for Kazmir was not particularly high in the first place. Bolsinger is a decent back-end arm in NL-only if he gets the innings, while I have no faith that Ryu will ever pitch again.

Andrew Bailey $6 (previous NO BID)
David Hernandez $2 (previous $6)
Larry Bowa scooped the Phillies beat writers on Bailey taking the lead in camp for the closer’s job on a Philadelphia talk radio station on Tuesday morning. This has been my favorite part of the spring so far. As you can see by my bid, I have as little faith in Bailey as I did in Hernandez, but saves are saves.

Chris Owings $6 (previous $3)
Nick Ahmed $1 (previous $7)
Owings looks more and more likely to play regularly for the Diamondbacks.

Rymer Liriano $4 (previous $7)
Kirk Niewenhuis $1 (previous $3)
Keon Broxton $7 (previous NO BID)
It appears to be a wide open competition in Milwaukee for center field, and Broxton may have gained the upper hand. He is a high risk/high reward player, but the steals alone make him worth more than a nominal bid in NL-only.

Aaron Altherr NO BID (previous $13)
Tyler Goeddel $7 (previous 1)

CBS/LABR Adjustments
Nolan Arenado $34 (previous $32)
Madison Bumgarner $27 (previous $24)
Randall Grichuk $18 (previous $16)
Chris Carter $14 (previous $11)
Justin Bour $14 (previous $12)

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Non-LABR Adjustments

Michael Brantley $22 (previous $18)
Will Venable $2 (previous $9)
Brantley is ahead of his earlier timetable and could be back in April. There will still be an adjustment period for him, but an extra month of games is still a significant positive.

Aroldis Chapman $19 (previous $16)
It may seem weird that I am zagging when everyone else is zigging, but I was anticipating a 40-game suspension. Chapman will still be an elite closer when he returns.

Cody Allen $18 (previous $16)

Pedro Alvarez $14 (previous NO BID)
Austin Jackson $13 (previous NO BID)
Alvarez and Jackson both signed and should have every day jobs for their respective major league teams.

Jarrod Dyson $11 (previous $13)
Travis Snider $4 (previous $1)
I was high on Dyson this year, but an oblique injury for someone whose game relies so much on speed is bad.

Glen Perkins $11 (previous $13)
Trevor May $3 (previous $1)
May is one of my favorite stealth candidates for saves in the American League.

Lance McCullers $10 (previous $12)
I was lower on McCullers than the rest of the pack to begin with; his shoulder woes make me even warier than I had been earlier this spring.

Cameron Maybin $10 (previous $13)

Sean Doolittle $10 (previous $12)
Liam Hendriks $3 (previous $1)
Hendriks is my other stealth candidate for AL-only saves.

Jimmy Rollins $8 (previous $6)
It looks more and more like Rollins will win the shortstop job for the White Sox.

Michael Saunders $8 (previous $4)
Dalton Pompey $6 (previous $4)
It seems illogical that both players would get a boost, but at these prices this is positive speculation on both, not an endorsement of either.

Juan Uribe $7 (previous NO BID)

Avisail Garcia $7 (previous $10)
Adam LaRoche NO BID (previous $3)
LaRoche’s abrupt retirement puts Garcia back into a starting role for now.

Steve Cishek $7 (previous bid $9)

Eduardo Escobar $6 (previous $4)

LABR Adjustments
Miguel Cabrera $34 (previous $32)
Mookie Betts $33 (previous $31)
Justin Upton $27 (previous $25)
Dallas Keuchel $24 (previous $22)
Felix Hernandez $23 (previous $21)
Carlos Carrasco $22 (previous $19)
Chris Archer $21 (previous $19)
Cole Hamels $20 (previous $17)
Danny Salazar $20 (previous $17)
Mark Teixeira $17 (previous $20)
Evan Gattis $14 (previous $16)
Adam Lind $13 (previous $15)
Taijuan Walker $13 (previous $11)
Collin McHugh $12 (previous $14)
Yordano Ventura $12 (previous $14)
C.J. Cron $12 (previous $9)
A.J. Reed $6 (previous $9)
Logan Morrison $6 (previous $9)

Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MikeGianella
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