March 14, 2016
Fantasy Freestyle
Targeting Under-the-Radar Prospects for Rebuilds
by J.P. Breen
Dynasty leagues have increased in popularity in recent years for multiple reasons, including a boom in prospect knowledge and a desire for year-round fantasy activity. It’s a format that allows hardcore baseball fans an excuse to obsess over minor-league development. It’s also a format that gives everyone, from the owners in contention for a championship to the owners toiling at the bottom of the standings, a reason to remain committed to the league at all times. In fact, Baseball Prospectus has an aptly named podcast—There Is No Offseason—that’s dedicated to these kind of leagues, and they’re the leagues that overwhelmingly inspire questions in our “Bat Signal” queue.
I participate in two dynasty leagues. I’m mired in a rebuild in my first league but firmly in contention for a championship in my second. As far as League A is concerned, it was my first-ever dynasty draft, and I had an abysmal performance on draft day. I learned a ton, to be sure, but I was forced to immediately retool my team.
Full rebuilds never happen quickly in deep and competitive leagues, just like in Major League Baseball, so I’ve had a couple years to experiment with different rebuilding strategies. I think a couple are obvious: (1) target top-end prospects in Double-A or higher; and (2) take chances on high-upside prospects who haven’t yet reached full-season ball. It takes a pretty special major-league player to acquire the first kind of prospect. The second kind of prospect is best acquired through supplemental drafts and on the waiver wire.
So, what kind of prospects should one target for non-impact major-leaguers? It depends on the specific scenario, of course, but one should always be sniffing around for sleepers in the upper minors -- guys who perhaps don’t get much love on top-prospect lists but could be productive fantasy players in deep dynasty leagues.
I want to profile four specific prospects who could be savvy pre-season pickups. Two key rules: (1) none of these players could be featured in the 2016 Top-101 Fantasy Prospects article, not even in the Honorable Mentions; and (2) they must have already appeared in Double-A or above.
Jake Bauers, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Although Bauers lacks the premium power profile of a first baseman, he projects as a good-enough all-around hitter to carve out a quality big-league career. He compiled a .272/.342/.418 slash line in 2015 with 11 homers. That’s underwhelming enough that he should be readily available in most leagues; however, his Baseball Prospectus scouting report celebrates his swing and what his future hit tool could be. If things click, he could hit for average and hit 15-plus homers. That’s good enough for a CI or UTIL spot in a deep dynasty league. Moreover, he plays in the Rays organization, which is one of the best scenarios for someone like Bauers. He’s potentially another James Loney with a chance for a tick more power. Not sexy by any stretch, but useful.
Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Chicago Cubs
Candelario improved his stock dramatically last year once he hit .291/.379/.462 after being promoted to Double-A in the summer. His swing reportedly improved and showed the ability to support a good batting average in the future. Given the fact that he only hit 10 long balls last year, though, his upside is limited. Maybe he swats a dozen homers with a .280ish average. That’s essentially what David Murphy (.281 average with 14 homers) and Yangervis Solarte (.270 average with 14 homers) did a season ago, and they were top-20 third basemen. I don’t think that’s outside the realm of possibility for Candelario, and since he’s already in Double-A, he may not be too far from contributing at the big-league level (probably not in the Windy City). In that way, the 22-year-old could be a sneaky target this spring.
Socrates Brito, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Brito garnered a bit of attention in fantasy circles last year because he hit .300 with nine homers and 20 stolen bases in Double-A. That buzz could increase if he challenges for a role with the big-league club this spring, which is reportedly a possibility. Now, it’s important to recognize that Brito isn’t likely to play up to anywhere near the level he showed in the minors. First and foremost, he hit .213/.292/.266 against southpaws in 2015. The best-case scenario is that he carves out a role as a platoon guy. That reality should depress his value in fantasy leagues enough to be a worthwhile target—especially since he could steal swipe 20-25 bags in the right situation. Speed always plays in fantasy.
Adrian Houser, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
The right-hander came to Milwaukee in the Carlos Gomez deal, and he was largely treated as an afterthought in the four-piece deal. Houser then proceeded to post a 2.92 ERA with a 21.1 percent strikeout rate and, most importantly, a 4.0 percent walk rate. The guy’s always boasted impressive raw stuff; however, his command and his lack of third pitch have hindered his development. With the Brewers, though, he showed what he could become and even made some believers in his new organization. Houser throws in the mid-90s and has a legit swing-and-miss breaking ball. It probably won’t work as a starter without above-average command or a passable changeup. If it does, though, it’s a mid-rotation profile. Otherwise, he has the power stuff to pitch in the late innings. He’s ultimately a high-risk option, but one who’s on the cusp of the big leagues. Those aren’t overly common.
J.P. Breen is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
Click here to see J.P.'s other articles.
You can contact J.P. by clicking here
Fantasy Freestyle: A L... (01/08)
the archives are now free.
5 comments have been left for this article. 
Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and ALCS Gam...
Bauers was well inside of BA's top 100. I would argue that he is quite well-known for that reason alone. When you factor in that he is pretty unlikely to ever generate ant value at 1B he is about as bad an investment as they come. Dominic Smith-esque.
I'm not really worried about BA's rankings, and I'd disagree that someone providing a good batting average and a dozen-plus homers has zero value. In fact, it's this exact opinion that makes Bauers a worthwhile target for rebuilding clubs in deep dynasty leagues -- no one cares about the fringe pieces, the ones that round out the back-end of active rosters or benches. No reason he can't match what Yangervis Solarte did a year ago, and Solarte was a top-25 first baseman and top-20 third baseman. In deep dynasties, that's plenty useful.