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March 10, 2016 The -Only League LandscapeAmerican League Relievers
After weeks of a position-by-position look at AL-only options, we have finally reached the end of the road… and what better place to end than with the players who often close out the actual game that we love? Last year’s format was so successful and generated so much discussion that we decided to revitalize it for 2016 and take a look at each team’s bullpen instead of having a narrower discussion about 15 closers. Reliever valuation in mono league formats is well understood, so there isn’t a great need to dive into a discussion about what closers earned last year and what their earning potential is this year. Only-leagues are the one place where non-closers have value not only for the saves they might provide later, but also for the quality ERA/WHIP they will provide over the pedestrian fourth and fifth starters at the back end of your typical major league rotation. Baltimore Orioles: Darren O’Day, Brad Brach A combination of an uptick in velocity with some more movement in his delivery has turned Brach from a borderline major league reliever to a valuable commodity in Buck Showalter’s bullpen. Brach is prone to periods of wildness, but while over four walks per nine innings isn’t ideal, he strikes out enough batters to keep that from being too much of a concern. Brach isn’t likely to get saves, but a 94-mph fastball combined with a solid change should help him produce positive value this year. Boston Red Sox: Koji Uehara, Carson Smith Smith wasn’t quite the headline-grabbing addition that Kimbrel was, but the former Mariners reliever had quite the year in his own right; his 66 cFIP was ninth best among relievers in 2015. The Yankees bullpen revitalization has certainly been more heralded, but Boston’s troika of late inning arms could be nearly as good as the Yankees. Smith will probably pitch in the sixth and seventh, but Smith is more likely to pitch on back-to-back days than Uehara, making the chances at some garbage saves slightly higher. New York Yankees: Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances As great as Chapman is, Miller was even better in 2015, posting a ridiculous cFIP of 53 in 61 2/3 innings. His 2.04 ERA and 0.86 WHIP pushed Miller to a $23 season, which was good for best among AL relievers and seventh-best overall in the American League. Chapman’s 30-game suspension makes Miller the early favorite for saves. Seven saves were worth $1.90 in AL-only last year, so don’t overpay Miller simply based on Chapman’s suspension. Betances was the fourth best AL-only reliever in 2014 and the fifth best in 2015, this despite saving all of 10 games in both seasons combined. It doesn’t matter how many saves Betances gets this year, he is going to be worth an aggressive bid regardless of his role. With 266 strikeouts since 2014, Betances is 29th overall in the AL over the last two seasons in the category. I typically don’t like paying more then $3-4 for even the best set up relievers, but for Betances I’m willing to make an exception. Getting 130 strikeouts with those ridiculously good rate stats is worth bidding $9-11. Tampa Bay Rays: Alex Colome, Danny Farquhar If the Rays do embark on this plan, Farquhar is the likely fallback if Boxberger is ineffective. The former Mariner does have experience in the ninth, but both Farquhar’s velocity and effectiveness have diminished since he saved 16 games in 2013. The Rays have a good track record getting struggling relievers back in sync, but even in AL-only it isn’t worth putting more than a dollar down on Farquhar until it is certain he has figured it out. He has to learn to pitch more effectively with a diminished fastball, which is always easier said than done. Toronto Blue Jays: Roberto Osuna, Brett Cecil Cecil is often viewed as a middling pitcher, but his cFIP in 2015 was better than both Storen and Osuna’s. He has been terrific since the Jays moved him to the pen in 2013, but despite fairly relatively even splits versus lefties and righties, Cecil has been cast as a quasi-LOOGY at times. The signing of Rafael Soriano clouds the picture even further for Cecil. He is a one-dollar flier for rate stats at the moment. Chicago White Sox: Nate Jones, Matt Albers If he is completely healthy and can return to his 2013 form, Robertson and Jones could make for a formidable one-two punch for the White Sox. Jones returned from Tommy John surgery at the tail end of 2015 throwing gas, hitting the upper 90s on his fastball and the low 90s on his slider. He gave up home runs left and right, but command is often the last thing to come back after the procedure. Jones may be a bad bet for saves, but he will be a solid middle relief option in AL-only. The rest of Chicago’s bullpen looks unspectacular, and while Albers is the reliever listed above, nearly anyone in the White Sox pen could be the default back-up-to-the-back-up behind Robertson. Albers posted a sizzling 1.21 ERA last year, but his 3.15 DRA is more indicative of his true performance level. In fantasy, when in doubt I prefer to fill out the back end of my staff with relievers who strike batters out, not relievers like Albers who only struck out 6.75 batters per nine. Zach Putnam is the stab-in-the-dark play to make, although his walk rate in 2015 is troubling. Cleveland Indians: Bryan Shaw, Zach McAllister I believe in Allen, but McAllister is the guy you want to get as a handcuff in AL-only. The former starter dominated out of the pen, striking out almost 11 batters per nine and keeping the walks to an acceptable rate. McAllister’s fastball jumped two miles an hour last year while his slider jumped five miles per hour. Some touts believe you should avoid relievers like this since there isn’t a clear path to saves, but in addition to cheap saves, you also need quality rate stats in AL-only. The Sea Captain will provide those. Detroit Tigers: Mark Lowe, Justin Wilson Wilson finds himself with his third team in three seasons, but it isn’t because he is a fungible reliever. Wilson is left-handed but is anything but a LOOGY; his FIP was better against righties than lefties and the Tigers shouldn’t be afraid to use him against any batter. Wilson’s approach is hard, harder, and hardest (with a curve sprinkled in there once in a while), but he displays good movement and his cut heater gives enough of a different look to hitters to consistently keep them off balance. Bruce Rondon looks slimmer in camp and has always had amazing raw ability. Keep an eye on him. Kansas City Royals: Kelvin Herrera, Joakim Soria For the past two seasons, Soria has been a closer during the first half of the season and then a stretch-run, non-saves reliever for a contender. Soria eschewed another opportunity to close this winter when he opted instead to sign a three-year deal with Kansas City. In a different bullpen, I’d like Soria as a sneaky option to jump up a few spots quickly, but on this team he’s buried. Minnesota Twins: Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May May is the kind of under-the-radar reliever I dig in AL-only. After starting 2015 in the rotation, the former Phillie was moved to the bullpen in July and put up sparkling numbers that are buried in his overall 2015 line. A 10.63 K/9 rate—which is what May put up in the pen—would play in the ninth. The fastball velocity jumped from 93 mph April to 96 mph in September. Jepsen is at the front of the line, but May is the guy who could put up an elite season if Perkins loses his grip in the early going. Harris was the fifth highest earner in AL-only among relievers in strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP combined. Despite this, he flew under the radar in fantasy leagues last year and its likely you’ll be able to obtain him for a minimal bid (he was not purchased in CBS or LABR’s AL-only auctions). All this being said, while Baseball Prospectus’ ERA estimators favor Harris more than other sites’ do, Harris’ skills aren’t elite and an ERA in the neighborhood of three is more likely this year. That’s fine, but there isn’t a big bargain lurking. Los Angeles Angels: Joe Smith, Fernando Salas While Smith has the role, Salas is the pitcher I’m more intrigued by. Salas moved away from his change-up in favor of his slider and saw his strikeout rate leap to the highest rate of his major league career. Unfortunately, Salas’s ERA jumped over four, in part because of some bad luck with men on base but also due to a spike in home runs allowed. The bad luck should reverse itself. The propensity for home runs isn’t as easy to explain away, and isn’t the kind of thing that generates confidence in a manager when he’s looking for alternatives. If I’m using a handcuff for Street, Salas is the guy I want, although the typical caveat about not spending more than a dollar to two applies. The rotation doesn’t have a true workhorse (maybe Garrett Richards will get there in 2016), so if you’re looking for volume out of your relievers, this is a good place to shop. Oakland Athletics: Ryan Madson, Liam Hendriks, John Axford Madson is the logical second choice based on his prior closing experience as well as the three-year deal he signed this winter. Madson returned to the majors after missing three seasons and put up a season reminiscent of what he did with the Phillies. He wouldn’t be a lights-out closer, but he could step in for Doolittle if needed and the A’s wouldn’t miss a beat. You are forgiven if you believe that Hendriks was replaced by a pod person last year. The once replacement-level starter reinvented himself as a dominant reliever, adding several miles an hour to his fastball and showing off a power slider that made him difficult to hit, especially for righties. Hendriks now has the advantage of moving from a hitters’ park in Toronto to a pitchers’ park in Oakland, and if the gains from 2015 hold, he should have another strong campaign this year. Axford has had many opportunities to close in the past, but his control inevitably abandons him and he loses the job while the fixes whatever it is that ails him. He’s much lower on the totem pole in Oakland, but gets a mention in this space because of his past experience in the role. The strikeouts are great, but he is risky in every other category. Seattle Mariners: Joaquin Benoit, Anthony Zych Zych is a true sleeper; a reliever who is so far off the radar that he isn’t being taken as a reserve in most leagues. Relievers with Zych’s career profile are understandably overlooked, but in his case the awesome results last year aren’t a sample-size fluke but rather the product of cleaning up his delivery and allowing Zych to maximize the oomph on his mid-90s fastball and power slider. Benoit is going to go for $5-6, but Zych is the pitcher who could run with the closer job this year. Texas Rangers: Keone Kela, Tom Wilhelmsen, Jake Diekman Given Wilhelmsen’s mid-90s fastball, you would expect a higher strikeout rate than the 8.7 per nine The Bartender racked up last year, but Wilhelmsen has managed not only to survive as a reliever, but thrive as a closer for the Mariners for two-and-a-half seasons. The control is shaky enough and the Rangers bullpen is strong enough that I don’t expect Wilhelmsen to jump in for Shawn Tolleson for more than a save or two if it comes to that, but stranger things have happened. Diekman started out 2015 with the Phillies looking like a LOOGY, but after he was traded to the Rangers in the Cole Hamels deal, the coaching staff worked with him to focus on throwing only his fastball against righties. It is a small sample, but the results were impressive. Diekman throws the kind of gas you would expect to see from a closer, and could push past the LOOGY perception quite easily this year.
Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MikeGianella
7 comments have been left for this article.
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Also, Sam Dyson from TEX and Mychal Givens from BAL
Sure, no doubt.
I could have profiled 20-30 more relievers, but with approximately 3,500 words on the topic (along with Scooter's 5,000 or so in the NL), this is about as an exhaustive an outlook on closers-in-waiting that you will get anywhere.
Thank You!!! I agree completely. Cheers
I'd go out on a limb and say Dyson has the best pitch on the Rangers in his hard, power sinker. He was nasty after the trade.