Fantasy Three-Year Pro... (02/18)
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February 19, 2016 Fantasy Three-Year ProjectionsOutfielders, Part Two: 41-100
No need to waste words on an intro. I did that yesterday, along with my ranking of the top 40 outfielders. Let’s ramble our way to the century mark. 41. Kevin Pillar As I alluded to in the last segment of yesterday’s list, I think establishing small tiers of similar players is a smart strategy when you get to this point of the rankings. There’s not much separation in this group of speed-first players. Pillar is the most well rounded, DeShields owns the highest stolen-base upside, and Inciarte and Burns are leadoff hitters who are likely to swipe more than 25 apiece. DeShields was the only one who didn’t crack the top 30 at the position last season, and he didn’t play regularly until May. 45. Stephen Piscotty I love Piscotty’s floor and I’m optimistic he’ll settle into more power than most thought possible early in his professional career. Fowler, Parra, Myers, and Kiermaier offer probably double digits totals in both power and speed. I’m not sure why Kiermaier doesn’t get more love. He’s not a special offensive player, but his defense assures him of full time duty and he won’t turn 26 until after Opening Day. It’s still reasonable to project growth at the plate. Myers and Ramirez come with a substantial amount of injury risk, as well as the likelihood of losing outfield eligibility after this season. They’d both be higher without those concerns. 51. Randal Grichuk Can I interest you in some home runs? To an extent, the ordering of this group reflects the accompanying batting average risk each guy presents. Feel free to bump up the heavier thumpers if you’re willing to trade average for power. 58. Josh Reddick I don’t think there’s much potential in this group for anyone to suddenly rise 20 spots in next year’s rankings, but I think each has a chance to be a solid contributor for all three years that these rankings consider. Exciting, huh? 66. Nomar Mazara This is the point where I’m willing to forego some immediate production to chase a potential 2017-18 star. It’s not out of the question that the either of these guys see substantial time in 2016, either. Josh Hamilton isn’t exactly a bastion of health. 68. Denard Span The players in this early-30s collection all come with the standard aged-related production and injury concerns. The latter is especially true for Span, who would rank higher if I had any confidence at all that he could get to 500 at-bats. There’s a distinct possibility Dyson earns enough in 2016 alone to make this ranking way too low. He’s managed no fewer than 26 stolen bases in each of the past four seasons, despite never eclipsing 330 plate appearances. If he starts in right field often enough to get to 400, a 40-steal season is in play. 74. Michael Taylor Playing time is an open question for all of these guys, so whether or not they can return this kind of value is largely a function of opportunity. If any of them gets a regular job—and it will be harder for the Houston pair because of the organizational depth—a significant jump up the list is conceivable. 78. Avisail Garcia I’m not quite ready to cut bait on Avisail and Oswaldo, despite a brutal 2015 for each. Liriano, and to a lesser extent, Pompey are enigmas who have playing time questions but considerable upside. The three prospects at the bottom of this cluster need another half-season on the farm, but could see a fair share of major league time in 2016 depending on the health and performance of incumbents on their respective big league clubs. 85. Austin Jackson That right there is a list of baseball players whose position is outfield. Some of them are employed, even. 98. Andrew Benintendi Carsley listed Benintendi as an outfielder to know for 2017 and beyond, and I should probably defer to his expertise on Red Sox-related matters. However, I’m very bullish and don’t see why he can’t follow the same timetable as Conforto did in 2015, which would put him in Boston this September. The Sox appear to have adequate outfield depth, but Castillo and Bradley aren’t exactly sure things.
Greg Wellemeyer is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @gregwellemeyer
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If speed is in such demand than doesn't the possibility of Souza going 20/20 put him in a tier above where he is currently ranked. If I knew he was going to get 550 ABs, I'd put him in the 45-50 tier. Health was his undoing last year.
They really need to trade someone from that OF.
No question Souza could move up to that range, but as you point out, that's a crowded outfield. More importantly, I tend to be conservative on players that strikeout 30 percent of the time.