Fantasy Tiered Ranking... (02/16)
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February 17, 2016 Fantasy Tiered RankingsOutfielders, Part Two: 31-75
On Tuesday, I unveiled the top-30 fantasy outfielders via our famed tiered-ranking system. That project continues today, as we move to no. 31-75. The outfield position is notoriously difficult to grasp at the lower levels. Too many players exist to construct such a deep ranking with pristine accuracy. There are always players one would like to include—such as Max Kepler and Aaron Altherr—but it’s imprudent to simply stuff the top 75 with upside plays. It needs uninspiring guys, too.
Five-star players are the studs at their position. In general, they are the players who will be nabbed in the first couple of rounds of the draft, and they will fetch mixed-league auction bids in excess of $30. Four-star players are a cut below the studs at the position. They will also be early-round selections, and they are projected to be worth more than $20 in most cases. Three-star players are the last tier in which players are projected to provide double-digit dollar value in auctions, and two-star players are projected to earn single digits in dollar value in auctions. One-star players are late-round sleepers and roster placeholders. The positional tiers aren't simply a regurgitation of last year’s values but rather try to offer some insights into what we expect will happen in 2016.
We retained last year's roster requirements for the positional tier series. Dollar values come from last year’s PFM using a 12-team, standard 5x5 scoring format, with 23-man rosters and the following positions: C (2) 1B (1) 2B (1) 3B (1) SS (1) CI (1) MI (1) OF (5) UT (1) P (9). The minimum bid for players is $1, and, as we did last year, we'll allocate $180 of a $260 budget to hitters. Players needed to play in 20 games at a position to qualify there. The PFM is customizable, so if your league uses a different format you can adjust it to match your league settings and see how it impacts players’ dollar values.
THREE STAR
If only Michael Brantley were healthy. The 28-year-old has blossomed into one of the premier hitters in Major League Baseball. He boasted an impressive 1.18 walk-to-strikeout ratio, clubbing 15 home runs and stealing 15 bases, all while hitting over .300 for the second-consecutive seasons. Dr. Smooth has one of the prettier swings in the league and finally convinced fantasy owners of his mixed-league value. Unfortunately, it’s anyone’s guess as to how he’ll perform after he comes back from injury—and we truthfully only have a hazy timeline for his return from the disabled list.
I still believe in Jorge Soler. The 30 percent strikeout rate limited his effectiveness in 2015 and kept him from accessing his significant raw power in game situations; however, he has a strong history of quality plate discipline in the minors and still posted a top-30 average batted-ball velocity in all of baseball. If you want legit 30-plus power potential in the mid-to-late portions of the draft, Soler is one of the few options available. And to those wondering which player on this secondary list has the chance to be a top-10 fantasy producer, I think it’s clearly Soler or Byron Buxton.
Khris Davis owns a career .230/.285/.451 slash line away from Miller Park. He now moves to O.co Coliseum, which had a home-run park factor of 89 for right-handed batters. Seems like a great mix.
Three-Star Value Pick: Kevin Pillar, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
TWO STAR
We’ve got a few post-hype breakout candidates in Rusney Castillo, Wil Myers, and Steven Souza. Although Castillo made Red Sox fans dream with an exhilarating call-up in 2014, he underwhelmed last year. He posted a groundball rate above 60 percent, which prevented him from hitting for much power. The worst part is that he only managed a .103 ISO in Triple-A. The 28-year-old is a solid depth piece in fantasy leagues, but it’s probably pointless to dream.
Ranking guys like Josh Reddick and Cameron Maybin this low, despite quality years, reflects an overall lack of confidence in their ability to repeat. Reddick is best deployed as a platoon option. He hit .222/.291/.363 against southpaws. What’s worse is that his early-season breakout came crashing to earth in the second half, as he hit .251/.318/.439—which is eerily similar to his career .251/.311/.435 slash line. It’s disingenuous to argue that he’s likely to carry over his first-half performance from 2015 into the upcoming campaign. There’s too much track record here.
Matt Holliday has traditionally been one of the safest fantasy selections. That has changed, given his injury troubles in 2015 and the fact that he’s now 36 years old. He stopped pulling the baseball last year, which doesn’t bode well for his power numbers to bounce back to 20-plus homers. Still, he should benefit from whatever #CardinalsDevilMagic has Jhonny Peralta improving as a hitter after his 30th birthday.
Two-Star Value Pick: Gerardo Parra, OF, Colorado Rockies
ONE STAR
Grab some cheap speed or some cheap power. Herrera, Hicks, Kiermaier, Martin, and Davis should all have a chance to steal 15-plus bases. Santana, Werth, and Gallo could all club 20-plus homers. Yeah, each one of those players has his warts, but they wouldn’t be stuck in the one-star tier if they didn’t have serious drawbacks.
Repeat after me: Fantasy players aren’t penalized for strikeouts. After Khris Davis’ trade to Oakland, Domingo Santana should now receive everyday at-bats in Miller Park. That has a great chance to result in 20-plus homers, as the Brewers have ample opportunity to wait out his growing pains. The batting average won’t be pretty, but he could steal double-digit bases and the RBI totals should be solid enough. He’s a sneaky play in the later rounds. Just be sure the roster can handle the batting-average anchor dragging it down.
One could easily replace Gallo with Nomar Mazara. Both are potential fantasy studs. Both can hit the ball 450 feet with regularity. I happen to like watching that happen. So I happen to like them.
One-Star Value Pick: Aaron Hicks, OF, New York Yankees
J.P. Breen is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @jp_breen
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Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and ALCS Gam...
Is there a glitch in PFM with the 2016 PECOTA valuations? It says Billy Hamilton is the most valuable player in fantasy if you increase the number of teams to 20, which seems off
It would seem that the larger the number of teams in your league, the more importance is placed on the stolen base considering the overall decline in players stealing 20+ bags in the last few years.
That still feels extreme, doesn't it? Adding eight teams means Billy Hamilton becomes $6 more valuable than Mike Trout?
I would agree. However, Pecota also has my Royals for last in the AL Central so......... draft with common sense over the computer.
Setting SGP to ON should somewhat reduce the impact of SBs.
The value of elite players comes in part from their difference from the worst players. Adding 8*14 hitters probably adds few SBs to the overall total. Hamilton's projected 80 SBs might be most of what you need to win the category. That approaches 20% of your total hitter value coming from one player. Yes, the average is negative, but that's still a ton of value.
That does the trick. He's still really valuable, which I understand, but I prefer a value set that has him outside of the top three. Thanks for the tip!