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February 16, 2016 Fifth ColumnHow To Make Money Betting on PECOTAThere is no greater dream than to get rich quick, and if gambling on sports were legal in most of the United States, one might be tempted to leverage PECOTA to try to beat the big Vegas casinos. On the eve of spring training (and in anticipation of our imminent PECOTA 2016 release), let’s see if there are any places where PECOTA might be on to something the bookies are missing.[1]
Team Win Totals (via the Atlantis Casino)In the sabermetrician’s bag of surgical tools, PECOTA—like all projection systems—is a bone saw, not a scalpel, so we’re looking for big gaps—ideally five games or more—between PECOTA and the sports book. Kansas City Royals UNDER 87 wins Nevertheless, when you look at the Royals’ lineup, no individual projection feels that off. Lorenzo Cain’s probably in line for at least some regression, the big offseason acquisition Ian Kennedy is simply not all that good, and the rest of the lineup is full of the same low-OBP or high-volatility players we all mocked the Royals for acquiring before they started making the playoffs. Plus there’s not a bad team in the AL Central, which will make Kansas City’s road to a repeat title a little tougher. I don’t know if I’m completely on board with the projection, but the gap’s too just big not to comment on. Tampa Bay Rays OVER 78 wins
Cleveland Indians OVER 84 wins World Series Odds (via topbet.eu)Seattle Mariners at 50-1
San Diego Padres at 100-1 Yes, I hear the cries of the anguished, those huddled, weeping masses who got sucked into A.J. Preller’s vortex of trades in 2015 and were chewed up and discarded like industrial waste. But PECOTA makes the Padres an 80-win team in 2016, which is not World Series-worthy on its own, but this team isn’t nearly as bad as those odds suggest. PECOTA projects three teams that are getting better than 50-1 odds at more than 76 wins: the Padres, the Rays (who were already covered in the win over/under section) and the Brewers, who have a much tougher division to smash-and-grab.
MLB Home Run Champion (via sportsbook.ag)PECOTA doesn’t have any one player hitting more than 37 home runs, which is not the same as saying nobody will hit more than 37, only that it’s tough to back any single horse. Of course, that’s what makes this bet so difficult, because by virtue of the field being so crowded, all bets are long shots.
Miguel Sano at 30-1
Kyle Schwarber at 100-1 Schwarber, if the Cubs find a way to hide his glove, will get closer to 600 PA this year, and PECOTA expects him to keep up a similar home run rate, with 31 homers in 593 PA as a 50th-percentile projection and 38 homers in 649 PA in the 90th percentile. Schwarber’s got a few things in common with Sano: as a young player there’s probably a little more uncertainty to his projected numbers, and with less name recognition than established sluggers, Schwarber’s priced lower than he probably ought to be on merit. Beyond that, we all know that Schwarber, who perhaps more than any other player in the league, looks as if he’s powered by hydraulics, plays in a home park that will turn medium-depth pop-ups into home runs in the right meteorological conditions. Is he even close to one of the favorites to win the home run title? No, but with odds that good, he doesn’t have to be. [1] All of this is for fun, so if you actually try any of this at home and lose a ton of money, please don’t sue us.
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