February 16, 2016

Raising Aces

Free Agent Roulette: Mat Latos

by Doug Thorburn

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The Player: Mat Latos

The Terms: Chicago White Sox for one year, $3 million

Latos has burned some bridges with previous employers and his recent performance has been inconsistent, so the flea market price tag reflects a make-good deal from the pitcher's point of view. The White Sox are quietly compiling a high-variance roster that could make some waves this season in the AL Central.

Career Stats

GS	IP	ERA	WHIP	H%	HR%	BB%	K%
174	1068.3	3.51	1.183	21.5%	2.3%	7.1%	21.7%

Latos pitched for three different teams last season, compiling a combined ERA of 4.95 across 116.3 innings split between the Marlins, Dodgers and Angels (the later for all of two relief appearances). It was the first time in Latos' career that he had finished with an ERA north of 3.50 (not counting his 50-frame introduction as a rookie in 2009). He hasn't pitched more than 120 frames in a season since 2013, and the overall count of innings across his seven years in the big leagues is behind many of his contemporaries from this offseason's free agent class.

The strikeout rates have been less than impressive but Latos has posted solid walk rates throughout his career, not hitting or exceeding 8.0-percent walks since his rookie year. His rate of hits allowed spiked in 2015, with a 24.3-percent hit rate that was nearly two full percentage points higher than any other season of his career. The regression police will point to Latos' 3.72 FIP last season as further evidence that he was wronged by the vagaries of balls in play, but when such an egregious outlier exists there is often an explanation that goes beyond luck.

The Stuff

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
FB Velocity	94.4	94.2	93.6	93.7	93.5	91.4	92.3
FB Frequency	66.4%	60.0%	55.7%	58.5%	60.9%	65.5%	61.9%
SL Frequency	6.0%	23.1%	25.7%	24.2%	24.6%	14.1%	13.3%
CB Frequency	16.0%	7.2%	12.0%	13.0%	10.3%	8.1%	7.8%
SPL Frequency	--	--	--	--	0.3%	12.2%	12.9%
CH Frequency	11.4%	9.5%	6.4%	4.3%	3.8%	0.1%	4.0%

Latos has varied his repertoire over the past two seasons by adding a split-finger pitch, and in 2015 he tossed a mix of splits and changeups to give him a pair of off-speed pitches along with a pair of breaking balls, to go with fastball variations that include a four-seam and a two-seam (the latter represented 23.1 percentage points of his 2015 fastball usage). The split took over for the curve and slider in some situations, giving him a broader mix of pitch speeds in his arsenal. Latos pretty much threw everything to everyone, with the only obvious trends being his favoring the slider against right-handed batters and saving the occasional changeup for lefties.

The splitter was by far Latos' most effective pitch in 2015. Opposing batters hit just .148 with 43 strikeouts in the 83 at bats that ended on the split, and the only extra-base hits off the splitter were a pair of doubles (.025 opponents ISO). It was also his best pitch in '14, the first year that he broke out the split, finishing half of his strikeouts and holding batters to a nearly-identical batting average (.149). Perhaps he started throwing the split out of necessity, given that the pitch came to prominence in a season that saw the right-hander lose two ticks of velocity (not that the reduced pitch-speed dented his usage pattern of the fastball), and most of his other offerings were hit hard last season. Some of the velo bounced back in 2015, but he only came halfway back to the radar-gun readings of his peak and the 92.3 mph average was the second-lowest of his career.

Mechanics Report Card

	2012	2013	2014	2015
Balance	50	40	55	55
Momentum	50	50	45	40
Torque	50	50	40	45
Posture	40	40	40	40
Repetition	60	55	55	50
Overall	C	C -	C	C -

For an explanation on the grading system for pitching mechanics, please consult this pair of articles.

Latos completely altered his delivery in 2014, perhaps to compensate for an injury or some other physical limitation, as he traded power for stability in his motion. The torque scores backup his diminished readings on the radar gun, and the lack of hip-shoulder separation was especially clear as the hips and shoulders fired closely together. Last season, he brought back some of the delay to his trigger after foot strike, but the overall separation was both below average and less than what he regularly displayed two years ago. He doesn't have much load with the upper-half, leaving that trigger timing as the major determinant of his torque.

The right-hander has also slowed down his momentum over time, and the deliberate pace results in a shallow stride when using a slide step from the stretch. The combined loss of torque and momentum has left Latos with a poor power profile, clouding his future with respect to maintaining velocity. Further damning is the tendency for poor-posture pitchers such as Latos to represent the most rapid decliners of velocity each season. The extra spine-tilt also acts to shorten his release distance, with a trade-off that approaches two inches of distance for every one inch that the head is off-center from the spine. Combined with the poor momentum and the short stride, Latos has a very shallow release point, though he does achieve the desired goal of having a very tall release; his vertical release height is 7.25 feet on the fastball according to Brooks, which qualifies on the right tail of the bell curve with a z-score of 2.4 (four-seam).

To finish on a more positive note, Latos has improved his balance over the past couple of seasons, trading the loss of power for gains in stability. His balance suffers in the Z-plane with some rock-n-roll lean toward second base during his stride, and he has some drop after max leg lift, but his lateral balance is very strong and the other issues are relatively minor, leaving him with an above average score. This is a big improvement from two years ago, in which his balance had deteriorated to a career-low score of 40, but the trade-off suggests that he lacks the physical foundation to maintain previous levels of stability and power.

The Verdict: Better Latos than never

At such a low cost, there is virtually no downside to this deal from the White Sox perspective. Latos has the ceiling of a no. 2 starter, has pitched that well as recently as two years ago, and is making adjustments as his repertoire changes with age. Trusting him is an obvious gamble and there's a chance that his useful days are behind him, but for $3 million Chicago gets to find out if there's something left in the tank and Latos gets a shot to reestablish his value before hitting the free-agent market again next offseason.

Doug Thorburn is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @doug_thorburn
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