Fantasy Players to Avo... (02/23)
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February 12, 2016 Fantasy Players to AvoidShortstops
These introductions have been filled with C- jokes and should probably be avoided. Just like the players below should be avoided, based on the recommendations of our Baseball Prospectus staff. (You see, this is a joke that should be avoided which makes it like the jokes I am describing so it is meta. This paragraph fits this model as well, so it is another joke of this ilk. This is awful and I apologize for subjecting you to it.) Brandon Crawford, Giants This season, that player is Crawford (currently about the eighth shortstop off the board), who broke out in 2016 with 21 home runs, besting his past high of 10. Crawford is certainly a fine option, but he neither steals many bases nor helps in batting average, and I am going to bet that he is unlikely to repeat his 16.2 percent HR:FB rate, which bested his previous career high of 7.0 percent in 2014. Even if Crawford does repeat his 2016, he was still only the seventh-most-valuable shortstop. Add in the fact that many might also be overrating him because he either (i) made us look good if we waited on shortstop last year or (ii) was a productive replacement option in shallow leagues, and we get a pretty decent reason to avoid Crawford at his current, little-profit-to-be-gained price. —Jeff Quinton Ian Desmond, Free Agent Speaking of jeopardy, it’s time for every fantasy owner’s favorite game show: blind player comparisons, using PECOTA projections from the 2016 BP Annual. If you haven’t ordered your copy, I suggest you get on that right now.
PECOTA has a long memory and is forecasting a slight rebound in steals and average for Desmond (Player A), who is currently going 114th in NFBC average draft position (ADP). Meanwhile, Jhonny Peralta (Player B) and Marcus Semien (Player C) are going nearly 130 picks later in ADP, at 241 and 253, respectively. While Peralta doesn’t offer any speed, he’s a lock to encroach upon 15-to-20-homer territory, and Semien, who hit 15 homers with 11 steals and a .257 average last season, is just entering his physical prime at age 25. The point of this exercise is to further illustrate that the gap between Desmond and “replacement-level” fantasy options at the position is evaporating. —George Bissell Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians Addison Russell, Chicago Cubs All of that said, I think we’re jumping the gun by tagging Russell as top 6-8 option at the position. For starters, Russell had all of 74 games of experience at Double-A and Triple-A before making his major league debut last season. The fact that Russell held his own in 2015 despite limited experience in the upper levels of the minors is a testament to his innate ability and capacity to make adjustments on the fly. He took some lumps in the process—a .242 batting average and 28.5 percent strikeout rate, for example—and I think it’s reasonable, if not probable, that he takes some more in the short term given his inexperience. About those 2015 adjustments: Yes, Russell made some mechanical tweaks and experienced a autumn power surge, hitting more than half of his seasonal home run total in August and September. On the flip side, his contact rate was more than four percentage points lower from August on than it was previous. He became extremely pull happy while skewing his batted ball profile more heavily towards fly balls. The resulting 12.5 percent HR:FB rate doesn’t seem outrageous but Russell’s exit velocity ranked in the bottom third of players with 200 or more at-bats and his batted ball distance in the bottom half. I don’t think he’ll hit for an acceptable average if that approach doesn’t change and I’m skeptical about the power sticking around, barring an adjustment. Oftentimes we make the mistake of seeing only upside in a young player who has shown something at the major league level without accounting for an appropriate amount of downside risk as he’s still developing. At a cost that takes most of the profit potential away, I’m happy to let someone else pay for the early portion of Russell’s learning curve. —Greg Wellemeyer J.J. Hardy, Baltimore Orioles Obviously this is geared toward those of you playing in deeper leagues—no one is clamoring for Hardy in a 12-team format. But as much as it pains me to write this (Hardy was one of my favorites growing up), the time to look at Hardy as a useful fantasy asset has passed. Hardy hit just .219/.253/.311 last season, losing much of the trademark power that made him a solid option for years in his prime. In truth he hasn't hit for decent power in two full seasons now, and while you can partially attribute that to injury, it's unlikely that Hardy will suddenly become the picture of health as he enters his age-33 season. The Orioles have a good lineup and play in a great park, so I understand the temptation to take Hardy as a bounce-back candidate. If you want to do so and count on him as your backup SS or your MI in a 20-team league, that's fine. But right now he's the 21st shortstop going off the board, per Fantasy Pros early ADP count, and that's too early. Guys like Alexei Ramirez, Jed Lowrie, Erick Aybar and even Andrelton Simmons are better bets to produce some value but are going later, as are high-upside candidates like Javier Baez. That ain't right. - Ben Carsley
BP Fantasy Staff is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and ALCS Gam...
In redraft leagues maybe, but Lindor and Russell could be extremely valuable in keeper leagues for a while and I would be aggressive. In particular, I think fantasy analysts have been way too cautious about Lindor and have been discounting his performance too much. Yes, be wary when a player suddenly outperforms his minor-league track record, but there are a lot of elite talents who have done that wildly-- Hanley Ramirez and Raul Mondesi easily come to mind. With a unique baseball talent like Lindor, who is developing his game so rapidly, you have to apply a different discount factor to that performance than you would with a borderline prospect. I could see him putting up some offensive seasons similar to a young Derek Jeter.
I had the same reaction to the article. Lindor and Russell may do worse in 2016 than they did in 2015, but in a keeper league, they're extremely valuable.