February 8, 2016

Fantasy Players to Target

Shortstop

by BP Fantasy Staff

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Last night was Super Bowl Sunday. Here are some shortstops who our staff believes will provide a super return on your fantasy investment (punches self repeatedly in face).

Erick Aybar, Braves
One of the dirty secrets of fantasy baseball is that while speed may very well be overvalued in the real game, it is significantly undervalued in our game.

Major-League “Speed-Only” Shortstops, 15-Team Mixed, 2016

The six shortstops on the table above all stole 15 bases or more while hitting 10 home runs or fewer in 2015. And while all of them are undervalued to one degree or another, the 172-player gap between where Aybar is currently ranked in ADP and what he actually earned in 2015 is one of the largest chasms in NFBC drafts. Even if you believe (as many do) that valuation systems overvalue speed, nevertheless the gap between Aybar’s perceived value and his actual value is a chasm that you should be exploiting in deeper mixed leagues at your draft. Aybar’s ADP puts him on the periphery of even being drafted in a mixed league, despite the fact that he returned 11^th-round value last year. I can say without hyperbole that Aybar could be the biggest bargain in fantasy baseball this year.

And the move to the Braves may not hurt Aybar as much as some suspect it will. While he could lose some RBI batting at the top of Atlanta’s order, Ender Inciarte is no slouch at the leadoff spot and the top half of Atlanta’s lineup – with Ender Inciarte, Aybar, Nick Markakis, and Freddie Freeman – actually isn’t bad. He shouldn’t lose much in RBI and the Braves might actually let Aybar run a little more than he did last year. All of this is a longwinded way of saying that while Aybar certainly isn’t someone you should target in a fantasy league, you shouldn’t be afraid of taking him in the 15-17^th rounds of your 15-team draft if you haven’t nabbed a shortstop yet. He isn’t a sexy commodity in fantasy, but barring injury, you will get plenty of value back on your pick. —Mike Gianella

Brad Miller, Rays
Shortstop is obviously in a state of transition at the top, but as of last year there remained a sizeable middle class. All told, 16 shortstops returned value between $11 and $16, meaning if you didn't roster one of the elite guys but paid for a six-spotter in the next couple tiers, you got poor relative value for your selection. Miller is a player who wasn't among that cluster but should be this year, as the move to Tampa gives him a clear path to everyday at-bats for the first time in his career.

Despite fighting for consistent playing time and enduring a couple longer-than-comfortable slumps along the way, Miller did pretty much everything you want to see a young hitter do in his third season. Only two other shortstops averaged a higher exit velocity than Miller, and he significantly increased his opposite-field production, ultimately posting the fourth-highest rate of opposite field contact at the position. He also cut down on his infield pop-up rate, which had been a bit above average in the past.

The approach improved, as well. He stopped expanding as much and started getting more aggressive in-zone, and even though the latter brought a jump in his swing-and-miss rate, it helped contribute to an overall decline in his strikeouts and jump in his walks.

Hard, all-fields contact, fewer free outs on balls in play, fewer strikeouts...that whole package is an excellent recipe for running an above-board BABIP, and while Miller's was okay last year, the profile suggests room for growth. He was one of only six shortstops to post double-digit homeruns and stolen bases last year, and if you boost the average a little, toss on the additional counting stats that go with another hundred-odd at-bats, you're looking at a potential top-10 shortstop at a fraction of the cost (he's 16th by current ADP). It's an upside play to be sure, but a strong one to make if you miss out on one of the elite guys. —Wilson Karaman

Jhonny Peralta, Cardinals
The only exciting thing about Jhonny Peralta is the way he spells his first name. At a time when there is a plethora of young and exciting shortstops available at the top of the draft, no one is going to fall over themselves for the Cardinals shortstop. To be fair, it’s understandable. He’s not going to lead his position in any category, and won’t threaten for a top overall spot. What he will do is give you above-average production in AVG, a rarity at this position, thanks to a solid strikeout rate and aggressively average BABIP. He’s also going to give you good power for the position, guaranteeing himself for at least double-digit HR totals and representing a good chance at 15-plus. Although you’ll have to find stolen bases elsewhere, he’ll once again be in the middle of what should be a strong Cardinals’ lineup.

Obviously, that’s not the most enticing package on the board. Unfortunately, most of us aren’t going to grab one of the top five shortstops available. After that point, you’re likely better off waiting. If you wait for Peralta, you’ll have plenty of time to find some more upside at different positions and take the safe, albeit boring, production you can get from him. As of now, his NFBC ADP has him going in the 16th round in 15-team leagues. For some reason, he’s significantly behind Jean Segura and sits about a full round behind Ketel Marte. The latter has real upside that Peralta doesn’t, but I’m failing to see the argument for Segura. Peralta’s profile is one that begs for surrounding him with some high-upside players elsewhere on the roster. Luckily, you’ll have plenty of time to do so given how far he is falling in drafts to date. —Matt Collins

Ketel Marte, Mariners
Far be it from me to more than tacitly endorse a Seattle Mariner who isn't Nelson Cruz, but given the relatively dire (though quickly changing) landscape of the shortstop position, Ketel Marte isn't such a bad option. While his .283/.351/.402 slash line might be difficult to replicate across the board, Marte's ability to run should give him a solid base from which to build value. Mike Gianella's chart/blurb above notes the value that speed brings, and Marte's eight stolen bases would look closer to 20-plus given a full season of at-bats.

Marcus Semien, Athletics
Lost among the multitude of young, impact shortstops who saw their first extended big-league action in 2015 was Semien’s solid-but-unsexy campaign, where he was one of seven at the position to reach double-digit totals in both home runs and stolen bases. Semien is currently coming off the board as the 254^th-overall pick in NFBC drafts, which places him 13th among shortstops. I feel he can jump into the back half of top 10 at the position by season’s end.

Semien should face very little internal competition for playing time in Oakland in 2016, outside of the team deciding that prospect Chad Pinder is ready, an outlook that I view as unlikely. He should be a good bet to once again receive over 600 plate appearances, as he did in 2015. Semien’s overall line of .257/.310/.405 was hampered by horrific months in June (.575 OPS, .079 isolated power) and July (.471 OPS, .085 ISO), which were not coincidentally the only two months of the season in which he posted strikeout rates above 20 percent. Semien’s OPS was .800 on the season outside of those two months, and he got better as the season went along, posting an .820 OPS in August and .838 in September. His .742 OPS after the All-Star break was a 46-point improvement on his first-half total and his .161 isolated power output was a 22-point uptick of production over his first 90 games of the year. Semien’s 11 steals (in 15 attempts) placed him in a tie for 12th at the position, and I think there’s more where that came from, as he stole 26 bags between the top two levels of the minors and the White Sox in 2013, and I don’t think 15-18 is an unreasonable total for Semien to achieve as he becomes more acclimated to the majors.

While Semien profiles as a second-division starter at the position in real life, his fantasy value could sneak him into the back end of the top 10 at the position at the end of the year. If you miss out on the elite options at the top, Semien could make for a nice value play, as I certainly would rather take a chance on his profile than on somebody like Elvis Andrus, who is going over 100 picks higher. Also, purely as a 2016 play, I don’t think that he should be going almost 120 picks behind Addison Russell, as I see them having very similar value this season. —J.J. Jansons

BP Fantasy Staff is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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