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February 1, 2016 Fantasy Players to TargetThird Basemen
It’s tough out there in fantasy baseball-land; everyone has the same information, the same cheat sheets, and the same list of sleepers that you do. Fortunately, our expert fantasy staff at Baseball Prospectus is there for you, with five recommendations at third base that will blow your minds into the 22nd Century. Nick Castellanos, Tigers Manny Machado, Orioles That elite cumulative production was top-heavy, however; whereas nine first basemen returned at least $20 of standard, mixed league value, just five third basemen did. And this is reflected in current ADP trends: after a spectacular run of four third basemen going within five picks of each other in the top 10, there are just four more going in the entire top 100. You can currently grab the 12th-best first baseman 88th overall. All of this is to say that it will pay to be one of the people in your draft who grabs a premium bat at one of the premium fantasy positions. I chose Machado over the other top-10 options (Donaldson, Arenado, Bryant) because he has the most diversified skillset of the bunch, to go along with marginal upside (somehow) for more production than he delivered last year. The exit velocity was elite (18th of 221 qualified), and while maturity brought more flyballs last year (and the lower BABIP ceiling that tends to go with them) his marginally below-average performance on balls in play was probably a little light given the overall contact profile—particularly against southpaws, where his .279 was well south of career norms. The speed, lack of a pronounced home/road or handedness split, the stellar contact rate, his age and ballpark… the whole package is the most complete of the bunch, making him the highest-floor player of the group and the best choice as your starting third baseman in 2016. —Wilson Karaman Pablo Sandoval, Red Sox Of course, sometimes it only takes one bad dish to ruin a restaurant, and Sandoval's 2015 season was served both with no regard for ingredients or presentation. He played in 126 games, hit below .250 and couldn't manage to crack either 50 runs or RBI—putting him right behind Cody Asche and Andres Blanco as the 51st-overall third baseman in mixed leagues. In fact, if he were a Philadelphia Phillie, Sandoval would have finished as the fifth-most-valuable fantasy third baseman on his own team. It's all so deliciously deserving of a brutal takedown on Yelp. I've talked a good bit on Flags Fly Forever recently about the National League to American League transition, and the difficulty some players can have with it. This was year one of that for Sandoval, and while it doesn't excuse his terrible, horrible, no good, very bad year, it gives me slightly more confidence that it's a one year blip. The move from AT&T to Fenway was supposed to reverse all of the park-adjusting we've done for him in the past, yet at the dawn of year two in Boston, Sandoval finds himself being drafted nearly 300th overall, directly behind Yangervis Solarte. Just because he's shaped a little like a pumpkin, that doesn't mean he's actually turned into one. —Bret Sayre Kyle Seager, Mariners The most obvious reason for this phenomenon may be the fact that he doesn’t possess the cathedral-esque ceilings of the truly elite options at the position like Donaldson and the trio of young upstarts in Arenado, Machado and Bryant. However, he remains squarely in his prime at just 28 years old, and is a lock to post 20-plus home runs with a solid batting average going forward. While he’s unlikely to rack up double-digit stolen bases ever again, the handful he provides are just gravy at this point. There were a few prominent indicators, which emerged last season (especially during his late-season surge) that he could be even better going forward. Among the most notable was the sharp increase in his contact rate, which rose from 80 percent for his career to 84 percent last season. Were it not for for a paltry .278 BABIP (well below his .292 career mark coming into the year) he would’ve posted an average closer to .280 than just .266. Also, after years of futility against left-handers, he hit .297/.324/.511 with 13 homers off southpaws in 2015. If Seager is able to sustain the gains he made against left-handers, it’s not out of the question that he could slug upwards of 30 home runs with an average near .280 in 2016. —George Bissell Justin Turner - Dodgers
BP Fantasy Staff is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
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Redsox and BP Fantasy always makes the cut. I'm surprised Middlebrooks in Mil isn't on the ballot. That being said, Villar at 3B in Mil with his ct% up to 73% seems like a sure fire 30 SB in 500 PA w/5 HR.
Just playing around with Redsox