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January 21, 2016
BP Daily Podcast
Effectively Wild Episode 802: The Podcast We Put Away Wet
by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller
Ben and Sam banter about Chris Davis and Target, then answer emails about David Price, Yosemite Tim, requesting trades, true talent, and the most average player.
Audio intro: The Rolling Stones, "Ride on Baby"
Audio outro: The Marshall Tucker Band, "Long Hard Ride"
Download Here (46 MB; 50:12)
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Ben Lindbergh is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
Click here to see Ben's other articles.
You can contact Ben by clicking here
Sam Miller is an author of Baseball Prospectus.
Click here to see Sam's other articles.
You can contact Sam by clicking here
<< Previous Article
Pebble Hunting: Flame ... (01/20)
|
<< Previous Column
BP Daily Podcast: Effe... (01/20)
|
Next Column >>
BP Daily Podcast: Effe... (01/22)
|
Next Article >>
Dynasty League Positio... (01/21)
|
1 comment has been left for this article. 
Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and ALCS Gam...
I would guess that Sam is right about the BP projections. I would take the median to be the model's closest approximation of a player's true talent, or better middling performance level. The 90th, etc. percentile seem likely to be estimates of what happens if regular skill variation or luck favors the player over the course of a year. The 10th seems to be what would happen if the player had a bad year, either as a result of bad luck or poor performance (relative to the player's typical performance).