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January 18, 2016 Early ADP AnalysisFirst Base
Welcome to the second installment of our new fantasy series focused primarily on analyzing early average draft position (ADP) trends to determine what we can learn from them to help improve our draft-day strategy heading into 2016.
The early ADP data referenced for this entire series, housed at STATS.com, is from 2016 National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) leagues, which are comprised of 15 teams. For the purpose of this column, since the majority of BP subscribers play in shallower, standard 12-team leagues, the average round data is reflective of that. It’s also worth pointing out that the data is also both relatively thin and updating in real time at the link above, so be sure to check back frequently for the latest updates. Without further delay, let’s dive into the early ADP trends at first base. Note: Players marked with an * are eligible at DH only. The Early Rounds Is Rizzo the new Goldschmidt? It’s a fair question…
Goldschmidt is one of the safest five-category foundational building blocks in fantasy and deserving of his lofty ADP, but it’s Rizzo who is generating the most buzz behind him at first base. And it’s easy to see why. He’s the catalyst for a loaded Cubs lineup, coming off back-to-back 30-home run campaigns. The 26-year-old finished as the third-most valuable first baseman behind Goldschmidt and Joey Votto, earning $28 in standard mixed leagues last season. He also added speed to the equation for the first time in his career, swiping 17 bases (second only to Goldschmidt among first basemen) in 2015. The hype is justified with Rizzo.
It’s only in comparison Cabrera’s lofty ADP last year (fifth overall) that his fantasy stock is on the decline. He’s still managed to slide into the first round of 15-team leagues and the early second round of standard 12-team formats after an injury marred campaign in which he recorded a career-low 511 plate appearances, but hit just like vintage Miggy .338/.440/.534 with 18 home runs, when he was on the field. He’ll turn 33 this season, but the raw skills remain intact and a bounce-back appears likely, making him a solid investment toward the end of the first round in 2016 drafts.
Consensus first-round picks in every league at this time a year ago, both Abreu and Encarnacion have fallen to the end of the second round despite the fact that they finished as top-six first basemen, earning $23 and $26, respectively in 2015. The rise of young studs like Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, A.J. Pollock and Mookie Betts (just to name a few) have pushed them further down draft boards, where they become even more appetizing propositions.
There was plenty of uncertainty swirling around the Toronto native, coming off an injury plagued 2014 season in which he hit just .255 in 272 plate appearances, around this time a year ago. He answered all of them with a bounce-back performance in which he hit .314/.459/.541 (.360 TAv) with 29 home runs, 95 runs scored, 80 RBI, and 11 stolen bases (his most since 2010). He more than justified the late fifth-round selection fantasy owners used on him, finishing as the second-best option at the position behind Goldschmidt by earning $30 in standard mixed leagues. With the possible exception of Prince Fielder, no first baseman improved their fantasy stock more than the 32-year-old Votto over the last calendar year.
The Middle Rounds This is what value looks like…
Unless you’re a valuations nerd (like me), you may not be aware that Hosmer not only finished as a top-six first baseman, but as a top-30 hitter overall last season. On the surface, the 26-year-old represents a phenomenal value in the seventh round, going nearly outside the top-75 overall in early NFBC drafts this winter.
Fielder bounced back from an abysmal 2014 season by hitting .305 with 28 dingers to finish as a top-10 first baseman. The health risks are obvious with the soon-to-be 32-year-old, but as long as he stays on the field he should have no problem justifying a seventh round investment in 2016.
The 26-year-old was a top-35 pick last season and barely cracked the top 100 hitters in standard mixed leagues, hitting just .276 with 18 home runs, 62 runs scored, 66 RBI, and three steals in 416 plate appearances. It’s hard to get excited about what the Braves offense looks like around him, which makes him an incredibly risky proposition heading into 2016.
If you’re looking for my hot take on Pujols, you can find it over in the latest edition of our “Fantasy Players to Target: First Base” series. Seriously, go check it out. Ortiz is in a similar boat. He has one year left, but in all likelihood, it's going to be excellent. Every year, numerous fantasy analysts have boldly proclaimed “this is the decline year," yet somehow it never happens. He's hit 30 home runs with 100+ RBI in three straight seasons, while hitting at least 29 homers in five of the last six years. If you want to bet against Ortiz, be my guest, but if anyone is going to defy the laws of player aging curves at 40 years old, it’s going to be Big Papi.
The Late Rounds We’re not quite into “Scrawny Arms Rob Lowe” territory just yet…
He’s a utility-only option, but the 32-year-old Morales finished as a top-50 hitter last season, earning $19 in standard mixed leagues. Not bad for a guy whose ADP was 395th overall last year. Seriously, that’s not a typo.
If you’re a regular listener of the Flags Fly Forever podcast (and you should be), you’re aware of the well-founded skepticism surrounding Park. It’s a notoriously tough hitting environment to begin with, and the Twins do have other options, most notably Kennys Vargas and Oswaldo Arcia, if Park struggles to adjust in his first season stateside. Given the success Jung-ho Kang (arguably the KBO’s premier hitter) experienced last year, fantasy owners are routinely willing to roll the dice on Park having a similar impact in 2016. Let them take that risk.
One of the top hitters in fantasy baseball two years ago (.335 TAv), Martinez was derailed by a toxic combination of age and another knee injury from the get-go last season. Unable to drive the ball, he hit just .245/.301/.366 (.232 TAv) and looked like a shell of the player who was a legitimate MVP candidate the year prior. Martinez’ value hinges on the health of his surgically repaired knees. The talent is unquestioned, but at 37-years-old, it’s a bit unreasonable to expect him to ever get back healthy enough to reach the lofty offensive ceiling he touched in 2014. His ADP is reflective of that pessimism, as fantasy owners opt for younger (and healthier) lottery tickets in the late rounds.
The Leftovers Can we just Netflix and chill instead of talking about these guys? Except Greg Bird…
If you’re digging deep for an intuiting speculative pick, Bird fits the bill. The presence of veterans Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez block him at both first base and designated hitter to start the year, but all it takes is one injury for the 23-year-old left-handed power hitter to step into everyday at bats in Yankee Stadium. He can flat out hit, which is all that matters in fantasy. In 178 plate appearances late last season, Bird hit .261/.343/.529 (.312 TAv) with 20 extra-base hits (11 home runs), 26 runs scored and 31 RBI. Bird is a late-round investment that could pay off big-time if everything breaks right.
Mauer simply doesn’t hit for enough power (or average anymore, frankly) to warrant consideration outside the deepest of formats. Alvarez, who remains a free agent at the time of writing, could become a tasty late-round grab if he lands in a favorable park this spring. It would be wise for fantasy owners in deeper leagues to keep a close eye on where the 29-year-old former Vanderbilt standout ends up.
The Undrafted Crop These guys are so far off the map Sean Penn couldn’t find them…
The 29-year-old’s ADP cratered after his release from Houston, but he couldn’t have landed in a better spot for right-handed power than Miller Park. If you’re going to speculate on one name from this group, it’s Carter, who was a top-120 pick, one spot behind Manny Machado, in fantasy drafts last season.
George Bissell is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @GeorgeBissell
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How do you see 2016 shaking out for A.J. Reed?
He's a highly coveted fantasy prospect in keeper and dynasty formats and he should be. Some of our scouts at BP like Wilson Karaman, who have seen him in person rave about his talent. The Astros have built up a bit of a log-jam at first base and we're still talking about a 22-year-old who has just 237 plate appearances above High-A. It would be asking a lot for him to step into the lineup everyday right now if Jon Singleton struggles out of the gate, which is why he's not on the radar at all in mixed leagues. He's certainly someone worth monitoring in-season for re-draft leagues. If Reed continues to mash at Double-A and gets to Triple-A by June or July, he could have a shot at a September debut if everything breaks right.