January 15, 2016

Fantasy Players to Avoid

Catchers

by BP Fantasy Staff

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Nick Hundley, Rockies
How does a catcher entering his age-31 season move from 37th among catchers in 2014 to seventh at the position in 2015, despite only receiving 156 more plate appearances? Signing a free agent deal to play half of your games in Coors Field is a good place to start. Hitting 10 home runs and stealing five bases made Hundley quite valuable in 2015, no question about it, but I have serious doubts about what, if anything, he’ll be able to replicate in 2016. Hundley’s 10 taters were the second most of his eight-year career, despite a four percentage point drop in his hard-contact percentage and a drop of over five percentage points in his flyball rate. Hundley’s five steals were more than he swiped in the five seasons prior combined, and his .807 OPS was the first time that he registered an OPS of above .700 since 2011. His career-high .301 AVG in 2015 was a 58-point improvement over 2014, a number likely buoyed by his .356 BABIP.

Like countless examples of Rockies hitters past and present, Hundley hit much, much better at home (.355/.393/563) compared away from Coors (.237/.275/.355), and 2016 is the last season that the Rockies have Hundley under contract. Prospect Tom Murphy hit 23 home runs between the high-minors and majors last season and appears ready for an extended run of regular at-bats, which could earn Hundley a ticket out of town before the trade deadline, putting into question not only how many plate appearances that Hundley will receive above the 389 that he received in 2015, but how many of those will actually come at Coors. Hundley is currently being drafted in the roughly the same spot as Derek Norris, and just behind Yasmani Grandal, which is pure insanity to me. —J.J. Jansons

Devin Mesoraco, Reds
Entering 2015, Mesoraco looked like he was on the verge of becoming the best catcher in fantasy baseball this side of Buster Posey. Then a hip impingement led to Mesoraco being shelved early and pushed him onto the disabled list after a short-lived attempt to play the outfield. Mesoraco should be ready to play by the time spring training rolls around next month, but the full extent of his recovery could linger well into 2016, causing Mesoraco to either miss playing time or to not be nearly as effective as he was in his breakout 2014 campaign, when he hit 25 home runs, drove in 80, and provided a .273 batting average. Even if Mesoraco is healthy, there is the issue of how much 2014 was real and how much of it was an outlier. Mesoraco was solid in the minors, but his major league track record prior to 2014 was nothing special, and his .273/.359/.534 slash was way out of line with anything he had done in the minors. Mesoraco certainly should be owned in every format in 2016, but his early ADP has him going eighth overall among catchers. While the upside certainly puts Mesoraco in that range, a lot can go wrong coming off of such a serious injury, and fantasy managers should exercise some caution, at least until we can get a better read on Mesoraco in spring training. —Mike Gianella

Yadier Molina, Cardinals
The seven-time All-Star has been an elite catching option in fantasy circles in recent years, as the veteran backstop posted three consecutive $20 seasons from 2011-2013 in standard NL-only 5x5 scoring formats. However, Molina has registered back-to-back disappointing campaigns the past two seasons with $11 and $10 in earnings, respectively, in these mono formats. Injuries have certainly hindered Molina’s productivity at the plate the past couple of years, but lingering ailments for a catcher with Molina’s tenure in the majors are to be expected. A year after undergoing surgery on the thumb on his throwing hand, which limited him to 110 games (the fewest games he has appeared in since 2005), the 12-year veteran tore the ligament on his other thumb in September and underwent surgery to repair that thumb ligament in October. The most recent procedure could leave Molina’s availability to begin the 2016 season healthy in doubt based on current reports. The eight-time Gold Glove award winner will turn 34 in July and with 1,436 games played behind the dish in his big league career, Molina’s productivity appears to be in decline and he should not be considered a top catching option in 2016. His OBP and SLG have both taken a nosedive the past two seasons, as we have seen his slash lines dip from .319/.359/.477 in 2013 to .282/.333/.386 in 2014 to .270/.310/.350 last year—his worst OPS in 10 years. His ground-ball and HR:FB rates have also taken drastic turns in the wrong direction since his 2013 season, which should raise red flags. Molina is still a decent option in two catcher formats, but can no longer be considered an upper- or mid-tier choice and should fall into the lower-level section of your draft sheets for catchers. Molina’s HR totals the past four seasons are 22, 12, 7, and four in 2015, and surgeries now on both thumbs lead me to believe the regression in offense will continue for Yadi. —Keith Cromer

Salvador Perez, Royals
Sal's just fine by me, but I think the general fantasy baseball participant population likes him a bit too much. I get the love; he has either hit above .290 or 17+ home runs in each of his first four seasons in the bigs. His age, he will be 26 in May, is also enticing. That said, pitchers have learned to throw him as few strikes as possible and Perez has not yet adjusted, as seen in the drop in AVG the last two seasons. Additionally, there is a good chance his HR:FB rate drops back into single digits this year (where it was in 2013 and 2014). Again, Perez is fine, but I am not going to be valuing him as a top-100 player or a top-four catcher. —Jeff Quinton

Blake Swihart, Red Sox
I'm quite confident that Swihart will blossom into a consistent starting option in standard-sized leagues, and I think we could see him perform as such as soon as 2017. But if you're banking on getting a ton of production from Swihart in 2016, you like to live a bit too dangerously for my tastes. All anyone cites when they talk about Swihart's 2015 season is his admittedly impressive second half. That's understandable; he hit .303/.353/.452 in 168 PA in the second half, performing better at a position in which most players fade as the year drags on. But Swihart rode a .391 BABIP during this period, and while there's no explaining away his increase in power it's unlikely the young backstop is going to flirt with a .300 average or in excess of 15 homers any time soon.

Remember that Swihart was forced into duty last year and is a player with all of 216 games above High-A under his belt at this point in his career. Could he take the job in Boston and run with it? Sure, and if he does, he could flirt with a top-12 finish. But with a capable backup in Ryan Hanigan on board and Christian Vazquez recovering in the upper minors, it wouldn't at all be surprising to see Swihart sent down for more seasoning should he struggle. Essentially, I think Swihart is going to be routinely valued as a top-12-15 options for next season and while he has that upside, there's a better chance than people realize that he'll get parked in Triple-A at some point. He's still one of the better dynasty catching options in the game, but slow your roll for next year. —Ben Carsley

Stephen Vogt, Athletics
The 31-year-old catcher was a fantasy darling to begin the 2015 season, as he hit a blistering .287/.374/.498 with 14 home runs prior to the All-Star break. We all understood that such a level was unsustainable; however, few fantasy owners saw him imploding in the second half, which he did with a .217/.280/.349 slash line. Even worse, he only clubbed four homers in that time frame. Admittedly, Vogt possesses a coveted trait for fantasy catchers, the ability to play multiple positions and amass more plate appearances, but that’s not as special when it comes with the context of what should be a below-average Athletics offense. While he’s obviously not as bad as his 2015 second half, he doesn’t project to do much more than hit .255-.265 with a dozen homers. And considering he’s already on the wrong side of 30, it’s conceivable that he’ll merely tread water before falling off a cliff. I’d rather have someone uninspiring with power potential, like Wilson Ramos, than gamble on Vogt being something more than a fringe top-20 catcher. —J.P. Breen

BP Fantasy Staff is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
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