Welcome to Splitsville... (01/12)
the archives are now free.
18 comments have been left for this article. BP Comment Quick Links
| |
|
|
January 12, 2016 Fantasy Tiered RankingsCatchers
Today, we kick off our positional tier rankings. For the fifth year in a row, we have made this into a collaborative effort. Players at each position will be divided into five tiers, represented by a “star” rating. Five-star players are the studs at their position. In general, they are the players who will be nabbed in the first couple of rounds of the draft, and they will fetch mixed-league auction bids in excess of $30. Four-star players are a cut below the studs at the position. They will also be early-round selections, and they are projected to be worth more than $20 in most cases. Three-star players are the last tier in which players are projected to provide double-digit dollar value in auctions, and two-star players are projected to earn single digits in dollar value in auctions. One-star players are late-round sleepers and roster placeholders. The positional tiers aren't simply a regurgitation of last year’s values but rather try to offer some insights into what we expect will happen in 2016. We retained last year's roster requirements for the positional tier series. Dollar values come from last year’s PFM using a 12-team, standard 5x5 scoring format, with 23-man rosters and the following positions: C (2) 1B (1) 2B (1) 3B (1) SS (1) CI (1) MI (1) OF (5) UT (1) P (9). The minimum bid for players is $1, and, as we did last year, we'll allocate $180 of a $260 budget to hitters. Players needed to play in 20 games at a position to qualify there. The PFM is customizable, so if your league uses a different format you can adjust it to match your league settings and see how it impacts players’ dollar values. The first edition of the series tackles catchers. Five Star
Five-Star Value Pick: Buster Posey Four Star
If there is any catcher who can surpass Posey, it is Schwarber, whose mammoth power creates visions of that fantasy white whale, the 30-homer catcher (Mike Napoli in 2011 was the last backstop to do it, in case you’re wondering). Whether Schwarber can catapult to five-star status will hinge entirely upon his batting average, which dropped every month in the majors as pitchers adjusted to his approach. A 25-30 home-run season will play in any format, but if is attached to a .220-.230 batting average, it won’t be worth a premium draft pick. Four-Star Value Pick: Kyle Schwarber Three Star
There is a good deal of power potential in this tier, but nearly all of it is tied to batting averages that are mediocre or worse. McCann managed to deliver on the 25-30 home-run power many thought would be a fait accompli at Yankee Stadium, but it came with an absolutely putrid batting average. Perez could arguably be ranked higher, but the concern is that all of the wear and tear behind the plate is ultimately going to take its toll. Lucroy gets knocked down a tier after a subpar 2015. Some of this was due to injury, but even on an at bat by at bat basis, his performance was not nearly as good as it was in 2014. The batting average can and should bounce back, but with so much of his production tied to one category, it is difficult to move Lucroy up until he does it again on the field. At his best, Lucroy is an MVP-caliber catcher, but that is in part because of his defense and framing skills. Three-Star Value Pick: Travis D’Arnaud Two Star
While the catchers at the top of the heap look thinner this year, there are far more options in the $10-15 price range than there were in 2015. Where in the past a significant number of teams had job sharing arrangements or defense-first backstops, there were more options last year who provided 15+ home runs, 50+ RBI, or both. The depth in this tier makes the possibility of snagging two quality catchers in two-catcher formats much better than it was in years past. The two-star tier offers a healthy amount of stability and risk. If your team is already filled with rookies and upside plays, grabbing a steady performer like Vogt, Montero, or Norris is the play. On the other hand, if your team is boring at the top, making a play for a Swihart or a Realmuto could make more sense. Note that Realmuto and Hundley offer a rare opportunity for a handful of steals from your catcher. Two-Star Value Pick: Wilson Ramos One Star
The drop from the two-star tier to the one-star tier seems precipitous. Here is where you will find job sharing arrangements and playing time uncertainties. If you are looking for plate appearances, Molina and Pierzynski are the plays at the bottom of the two-catcher, mixed league barrel. Fantasy managers often prefer to gamble on upside plays, but catcher is the one position where taking big risks and missing out on 20-30 runs and/or RBI isn’t the best idea. Six of the 10 catchers in this tier did hit nine or more home runs in 2015, and nearly every backstop in the one-star tier is anticipated to see a spike in playing time. However, not only is there volatility in this tier but most of that volatility is negative. If Rupp slips even a little bit in 2016, Carlos Ruiz will be there to take a good chunk of playing time. Robinson Chirinos looks tempting, but his career speaks more to a journeyman who had a performance spike than it does to sustainable growth. Murphy could be the catcher to break out of this group and shine in a starting role if he can maintain the batting average. Curt Casali’s HR:AB ratio is tantalizing, but there is no history of prodigious power in the minors and it is more likely that 2015 was serendipitous and not prophetic. One-Star Value Pick: Chris Iannetta
Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @MikeGianella
|
Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and ALCS Gam...
Is there a need for a health-related downgrade for Grandal given his shoulder issues and surgery?
I don't think so. He easily could end the season the 3 star tier. He played injured for most of the second half of the season. Had shoulder surgery after the season, so he should be fine.
i actually think you sort of upgrade him for that - i've been surprised by how many people are being all "grandal slumped at the end, perhaps pitchers figured him out / he is bad?" no he was really obviously playing with a busted arm, which was publicly known the entire time, that is the reason he hit .087 or whatever it was for the last two months
why they kept playing him into the playoffs when ellis was hot is beyond me
you do have to hope the surgery worked, of course. but reports have all been fine & i think that risk is already baked into the ranking here
I appreciate the thoughts. I see the upside/value, I just don't have a good feel for the surgery aftermath. How long is a normal recovery? Will he be hampered for part of the season? etc. I guess I haven't seen the reports you've seen but I'm certainly intrigued.
it just doesn't sound like it was too invasive, as shoulder surgeries go. no labrum involvement or major load-bearing structural repairs, just trimming the hedge basically
http://www.truebluela.com/2015/10/26/9617140/yasmani-grandal-shoulder-surgery-recovery-no-labrum-good-news
as far as exactly how his recovery is going it'll be hard to know until the spring i guess
We talked about this on the podcast last night. It's his non-throwing shoulder, and while I have some concerns I don't feel the need to downgrade him more than this.