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November 16, 2015 Prospectus FeatureBending the ScaleThe 20-80 (or 2-8) scale functions as a universally agreed-upon language for communicating information about tools and projected performance at the major-league level. As a scout, knowing your club’s iteration of the scale inside and out is arguably just as important as the talent evaluation component of the job. Scouting is, of course, an inescapably subjective exercise, but one that aspires to formalized methods. For the most part that’s possible, especially in evaluating major-league or high-minors talent. But sometimes the scale as is just can’t handle the demands of the evaluative process. Sometimes the scale must bend. Consider the amateur hit tool. The scale is calibrated such that 5 is major-league average, with each grade up or down representing a standard deviation from the mean. Consequently, it’s very difficult to produce present hit tool grades for amateur and low-level minor leaguers that actually convey meaningful insight about the current state of the player’s hit tool. If dropped into the major-league talent environment in his draft year, the best high school hitter in the country would be a present 2. I’m a 2; you (the reader) are a 2, unless of course you’re a highly-skilled professional hitter; the best high school hitters in the country are 2s; and all but a handful of the best drafted college hitters are 2s. The preceding statements are all accurate if you’re basing the grade on projected performance over the next three months at the major-league level, but assigning 2s en masse to amateurs doesn’t convey anything meaningful about the current state of the player’s bat and how far he has to go to reach his assigned future grade. Teams approach this issue in a number of different ways and there isn’t really a right or wrong answer. The goal is to maintain consistency and transparency, such that anyone in the organization will understand what you mean if you put a 4/5 on a guy. The Peer Grade “The present hit grades for (Brendan) Rodgers and for all amateur players going forward is a peer grade (which I’ll discuss in more detail in a few days in another article about the hit tool), rather than just putting blanket 20s on everyone’s present hit tool. A peer grade means how the player performs currently in games relative to his peers: players the same age and general draft status or skill level. Some teams started using this system to avoid over-projecting a raw hitter; some use the rule that you can’t project over 10 points above the peer grade for the future grade. This helps you avoid saying players that can’t really hit now will become standout big league hitters. Obviously, some will, but it’s not very common and it’s probably smart to not bet millions on the rare one that will.” The appeal of this approach is that it gives scouts more freedom to use the entirety of the scale, which of course allows for greater differentiation between players, many of whom start blending together, especially in the middle rounds and beyond. The downside is that defining the “peer group” is difficult and somewhat problematic. If you’re evaluating a top-five-round high school center fielder from Florida, are you comparing his hit tool to all top-five-round center fielders? All draft-worthy players? All high school players? Where does the subsetting end? Additionally, using this approach necessarily means splitting the scale in two—one iteration designed specifically for amateur talent and one designed specifically for pro talent. This is fine if the distinction is agreed upon and understood by all within the organization, but it necessarily means that the hit tool a player is given as an amateur cannot be compared directly to the grade he’ll receive once he signs and starts playing in front of pro scouts. The Low Minors Translation The Ingredients Grade Wrap-Up
Ezra Wise is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Follow @EzDW24
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Great article. Thank you.